NCAA March Madness Men’s Bracket Preview Takeaways: Indiana too high, committee snubs Big East

The NCAA’s Division I Men’s Basketball Committee provided a sneak peek at the NCAA Tournament bracket just over three weeks away from Selection Sunday. On the NCAA March Madness Men’s Bracket Preview show Saturday on CBS, the committee revealed its current top 16 seeds in order and by region led by No. 1 seeds Alabama, Houston, Purdue and Kansas. 

The in-season reveal of the top 16 teams in recent years has become not just quality entertainment for hoops heads but also a fine predictor of the future. Thirty of the 32 teams in the last two years to earn early top 16 seeds have gone on to stay in the top 16 of the bracket (albeit with some minor shuffling from reveal standing to Selection Sunday). Therefore, there are of course plenty of takeaways to be had from the preview bracket — even if it is only that. 

“We could see some changes,” said commmittee chair Chris Reynolds. “It’ll be interesting to see how the next three weeks unfolds.”

Here are five takeaways from the committee and its in-season bracket preview.

1. Disrespect for Big East is strong

Both Marquette and Xavier got some props in earning No. 4 seeds as the No. 14 and No. 16 overall teams, respectively. But for a league arguably second-best in basketball behind the Big 12, it’s laughable that the top two teams barely snuck into the top 16. Even more curious is the committee’s omission of Creighton (which has won eight of nine) and UConn (which has wins over the No. 1 overall seed, the No. 11 overall seed and the No. 14 overall seed. 

Creighton and UConn were among four teams Reynolds said “narrowly missed” the top 16 so maybe it’s nitpicking when both would have qualified as top 20 in the committee’s brackets most likely, but for Marquette and Xavier to be No. 4 seeds and for UConn and Creighton to be omitted entirely shows some strong disrespect for what has been a top-two conference.

2. Purdue’s credentials slipping

After a 22-1 start to the season through Feb. 2, Purdue looked like a near-lock to be not just a No. 1 seed — but perhaps the No. 1 overall seed. Not so much anymore. The Boilermakers have dropped three of four leading into Sunday, and while they remained on the No. 1 seed-line — the committee had them as the No. 3 overall team — it’s clear its stature and credentials as a potential No. 1 overall seed is slipping quick. Alabama and Houston will likely be favored in every remaining game moving forward which would make it a tough hill for Purdue to climb into the No. 1 overall seed spot. 

3. Lots of Big 12 love

If you’ve followed Jerry Palm’s Bracketology in recent weeks it should have come as no surprise that Kansas earned a No. 1 seed given its college-basketball leading 12 wins against Quad 1 opponents. What was surprising, though, was the strength elsewhere within KU’s conference. Texas was the No. 5 overall team just outside the No. 1 seed-line; Baylor was comfortably a No. 2 seed as the No. 7 overall team; and both Iowa State and Kansas State were surprising No. 3 seeds as the No. 11 and No. 12 overall teams. 

Kansas State and Iowa State are 4-6 in their last 10 games and fading fast, but the totality of their resumes — namely that they have nine and ten total wins vs. Quad 1 and Quad 2 foes, respectively — is keeping their top-end resume afloat. The beauty of playing in the Big 12 is that almost every night provides a chance for big wins, and even a near .500 record in league play is not only more than good enough to get into the field — but good enough to potentially get the two into top-three seeds.

4. Indiana way too high

No. 14 Indiana snuck in as a surprise No. 4 seed as the No. 13 overall team, making it what I’d argue was the biggest goof of the preview seedings by the committee. The Hoosiers have fewer wins vs. Quad 1 opponents than the following teams who were not in the initial top 16: Miami, Iowa and Northwestern. And they have more losses vs. Quad 1 opponents than the following teams, which were not in the top 16: UConn, Creighton, Miami, Rutgers (and plenty of others). IU survived at home vs. Illinois with a 71-68 win on Saturday to at least help the committee save face, but its standing as the No. 13 overall team when you pit its resume against some of the others who missed out is questionable.  

5. Who was snubbed?

In order, here are my teams who should have made the top 16 but did not, are below (ranked by most deserving):

1. UConn
2. Creighton
3. Miami
4. Saint Mary’s
5. TCU

“It’s razor thin,” Reynolds said of Creighton just narrowly missing the top 16. “We spent countless hours talking about Creighton. They could have easily been in the 16 spot. In order: Creighton, Miami, Saint Mary’s and UConn narrowly missed the top 16.”