Advance to Victory Lane: Don’t be quick to count out a 14th winner at Darlington

One of this week’s main talking points — who will be anointed Regular Season Champion after a fierce three-way battle? Early projections show current points leader Tyler Reddick prevailing in Sunday’s Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway (6 p.m. ET, USA, MRN, SiriusXM, NBC Sports App).

The No. 45 23XI Racing driver has erupted for 11 top fives and 17 top 10s through 25 races. He’s gained 81 points over the last eight races, climbing from 64 points behind in sixth to leading the standings and being separated by 17 markers over Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson and 18 over Chase Elliott, who are Sunday’s projected fourth and sixth-place finishers. Reddick has been riding a momentum wave since Charlotte — with only two finishes outside the top 10 since then.

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Whoever emerges victorious among the three contenders will likely need to win Sunday‘s race to pocket those coveted 15 bonus playoff points. The Southern 500 is notoriously grueling, with an average green flag run of 2 hours and 42 minutes — longest of all tracks in the Next Gen era — and an average heat temp of 89 degrees Fahrenheit, so such a win would be hard-earned.

However, the opportunity for a 14th winner must not be overlooked after what we’ve seen the past few weeks.

The numbers don’t entirely point to a new winner emerging, though. Only twice since 2014 has a driver raced their way to a post-season bid in the final regular-season race — so it’s still in the cards, just no guarantee. Plus, when you factor in that crown-jewel races have been won by drivers currently top six in points this year, it doesn’t bode well for drivers in must-win positions. Still, crazier things have already happened this season, and throughout history at “The Lady in Black,” we know that it’s anything but predictable.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

CHRIS BUESCHER: Richmond, Michigan and Daytona all came and went and Buescher couldn’t quite rekindle enough magic to find Victory Lane at either of those tracks after sweeping them last year. Still, he wielded top-10 efforts in the last two races while leading some laps last week and we all know how close he was to winning at Darlington this past May.

BUBBA WALLACE: Wallace has elevated his performance over the last few weeks while battling on the bubble. He’s had top-10 speed at Darlington before, and with the chip he’s been racing with on his shoulder, he should be in the mix. The next step is to deliver a walk-off win.

KYLE BUSCH: Not only is Rowdy’s season on the line, but his playoff streak is as well. He’s managed to go the last two races unscathed and is inching ever closer to a win. You have to go back to 2008 for Busch’s last Darlington win, but as the saying goes — it’s never over until it’s over.

ERIK JONES: Alright, time to get a little wild. It’s worth pointing out that the iconic Nos. 3, 21, 24 and 43 cars have never won in the same year and Jones is the lone missing number there so far. The 2024 campaign has already been shaping as an all-time season, so maybe there’s room for another first. Darlington is a track where Jones has found fortune in posting two wins and eight top 10s.

JUSTIN HALEY: If you can impress Michael Jordan with moves on-track, chances are you doing something right. Numbers may not exactly paint just how well Haley has driven the second half of the season, but it’s clear that with two top 10s in 2024 and leading 21 laps last week, he can find speed in the No. 51 Ford.

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RACING INSIGHTS‘ PROJECTIONS FOR THE COOK OUT SOUTHERN 500

Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.