Mets at Phillies: 5 things to watch and series predictions | Sept. 13-15

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Phillies play a three-game series in Philadelphia starting on Friday night…

Preview

Is the Mets’ offense about to break out?

Before Francisco Lindor‘s no-hitter-busting homer and the uprising that followed in the ninth inning of Wednesday’s game against the Blue Jays in Toronto, the Mets’ offense had been scuffling badly.

They scored just one run during this past Sunday’s loss to the Reds at Citi Field, mustered three in Monday’s win over the Jays (with the help of shoddy Toronto defense), plated only two runs in a loss on Tuesday, and were no-hit for the first eight innings on Wednesday.

While the Mets hit into some hard luck against Bowden Francis before Lindor’s blast, the majority of the contact they made wasn’t good, including plenty of pop-ups. They were also making lots of quick outs.

That obviously changed in a ninth inning that saw Lindor go deep, Pete Alonso battle back from an 0-2 hole to deliver a go-ahead sac fly, and Francisco Alvarez hit a mammoth, game-breaking three-run homer to center field.

It’s fair to believe that the hitter’s haven that is Citizens Bank Park will help the Mets, but they’ll have to overcome a Phillies starting staff that has been excellent this season.

New York will miss Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez during this series, but will still face a tough task against the formidable Aaron Nola, Kolby Allard, and Christopher Sanchez.

The Phillies are banged up but very dangerous

Philadelphia is dealing with injuries to Kyle Schwarber (who is playing through a hyperextended left elbow) and J.T. Realmuto (who has been out since Sept. 7 due to a knee injury).

But both Schwarber and Realmuto are expected to be in the lineup against the Mets on Friday.

One key Phillies player who will remain out is Alec Bohm, who is on the IL due to a left hand strain.

Bohm is in the midst of his best season, slashing .290/.343/.462 with 13 homers and a league-leading 44 doubles.

Meanwhile, Bryce Harper doesn’t appear to be 100 percent, and hasn’t homered since Aug. 9. But he’s hitting incredibly well nonetheless, including a red-hot .441/.500/.618 in 38 plate appearances over nine games this month.

Despite dealing with some injuries, the Phils remain potent. They’re 8-2 over their last 10 games, and have scored 714 runs this season — the third-most in the National League.

New York’s bullpen is well-rested, and possibly realigned

The Mets continued to get length from their starters during their three-game set in Toronto, with Tylor Megill (6.0 innings) and Sean Manaea (6.2 innings) bookending the series with strong performances.

Although David Peterson (4.1 innings) struggled on Tuesday, the Mets stayed away from their high-leverage arms while mopping up that game.

That means, coupled with Thursday’s day off, New York’s bullpen should be fresh and ready to go against the Phillies. There could also be a change to the late-inning hierarchy — specifically the roles of Jose Butto and Ryne Stanek.

Butto, who is continuing to adjust to a relief role and being limited to one inning at a time most outings (after pitching two-inning clips regularly earlier this season), has struggled lately after being the Mets’ best reliever in July and most of August.

He has allowed runs in four of his last six appearances, and has not been missing bats at the rate he was earlier this season.

Meanwhile, Stanek has been largely dominant after having a few rough outings following his trade from the Mariners to the Mets ahead of the deadline.

In 7.2 innings over his last seven appearances, Stanek has a 1.17 ERA (1.09 FIP), allowing three hits and two walks while striking out 11.

Until Butto reasserts himself, Stanek could be the Mets’ best bridge to Edwin Diaz.

Luis Severino has been rolling

Severino’s bounce back season is entering the final stretch, with him up to 166.0 innings after not reaching that level since 2019.

And he’s been getting stronger.

In 32.1 innings over his last five starts, Severino has a 1.95 ERA.

The above line includes a relative clunker that has an asterisk next to it. That’s because when Severino allowed four runs in 4.2 innings against the Diamondbacks on Aug. 28 in Arizona, most of the damage was done after he was hit by a comebacker in the leg.

Aside from that start, Severino hasn’t allowed more than one run in any start since Aug. 11.

Eyes on the Braves … and Padres … and Diamondbacks

Every team in the NL Wild Card race is off on Thursday, which means the Mets will enter play on Friday 1.0 game up on the Braves for the third Wild Card spot.

But it’s not just Atlanta the Mets are chasing.

New York is just 1.0 loss back of the San Diego (1.5 games overall), and 2.0 games back of Arizona.

As the Mets battle the Phillies, here’s who their Wild Card competition will be facing:

Braves: Four games against the Dodgers in Atlanta from Friday to Monday
Padres: Three games against the Giants in San Francisco from Friday to Sunday
D-backs: Three games against the Brewers in Arizona from Friday to Sunday