With a new season just around the corner, the Pittsburgh Penguins are gearing up for yet another training camp.
But this time around – unlike in seasons past – 2024-25 could be full of surprises.
View the original article to see embedded media.
As such, we will break down some storylines to expect this season and provide you with some bold – and some not-so-bold – predictions for the 2024-25 campaign.
Next up: Which Penguins’ player will break out in a big way this season?
Kelsey’s Prediction
I’m going to break format here a bit because I think there are two kinds of breakout players: young players who are bound to break out at the NHL level for the first time, and players new to an organization – via trade or free agency – who didn’t quite meet their potential in a new system during their first season with a team but have had success in the past.
As for the former, I think the obvious choice here is Rutger McGroarty. “Youth” hasn’t exactly been a thing on the Penguins for quite some time. They’ve had guys like Drew O’Connor and Valtteri Puustinen, who – while relatively young at 26 and 25 – still have the potential to find another level, but, for the most part, probably mostly are what they already are at this point.
There is a lot of talk about whether or not McGroarty will make the roster out of camp. I think he will. McGroarty wanted guarantees of NHL playing time in Winnipeg, and when there were none, he wanted out. The Penguins traded their top prospect, Brayden Yager – who is likely only a year or two away – in a direct swap for a more NHL-ready piece in McGroarty.
If there was no intention for McGroarty to be part of the NHL roster this season, the trade itself doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for the Penguins.
With that said, I expect McGroarty to play on the third line to start the season, likely alongside Kevin Hayes and either Cody Glass or Puustinen. This will help ease his transition and, hopefully, get his skating adjusted up to NHL speed.
But given McGroarty’s skill set and top-six upside, I don’t expect that deployment to last long.
Rutger McGroarty mixtape from 2023-24. Goals, power-play work, physicality, and tried to grab clips that highlight his current-state skating ability so you can judge for yourself. pic.twitter.com/Siig7KjvgP
— Jesse Marshall (@jmarshfof) August 23, 2024
My prediction is that McGroarty is playing alongside Sidney Crosby around game 10 of the regular season. His tools – on paper, at least – mesh well with Crosby’s, as his high hockey IQ, physicality, awareness, and playmaking acumen should enhance the top line.
If McGroarty plays 70+ games with Crosby, I expect a 20-goal season from the rookie, along with around 45-50 points. He’s NHL-ready for a reason, and I don’t think it will take him all that long to adjust.
Related: THN Penguins Predictions: Which player is poised for a bounceback season?
And for the latter? I’m a big believer in defensemen needing a full season under their belt in order to comfortably adjust to a new system. And that’s why I think Erik Karlsson is bound to have a monster season.
Ryan had some good stuff on Karlsson being a bounceback player yesterday, and I do concur with much of what he said. But, in a way, he’s both a bounceback and a breakout candidate.
A lot of Pens fans are disappointed with Erik Karlsson. I am not one of them.
The production isn’t there (yet) but the process has been superb.
AND the Pens are dominating with him on the ice at 5v5 – a 57% xGoal share and a 62% actual goal share. #LetsGoPens pic.twitter.com/VjNTosX6XZ
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) January 5, 2024
I don’t think Karlsson will ever sniff 100 points again. In 2022-23, he managed to do something that hadn’t been done since Brian Leetch in 1992 because he played for a team that allowed him to do whatever he wanted. He scored 100 points because he was capable of doing so, but it was only possible because the tanking San Jose Sharks had no regard for defense, winning, calculated risk-taking, or a “stick to it” system of play.
He doesn’t have that luxury in Pittsburgh. Now, he plays for a team that still has playoff aspirations and hopes to rebuild a strong prospect pool as quickly as possible while the veterans are still around. He has to play defense. He can’t take uncalculated, wild, unnecessary risks. But he is still expected to be a large contributor both five-on-five and on the power play.
No one’s confusing Erik Karlsson as some defensive stalwart, but he makes plays like this every game and you never hear a peep about it. pic.twitter.com/Jrq9cTAlCF
— Danny Shirey (@DannyShireyPGH) March 4, 2024
Karlsson knows that now. He understands the expectation and has played a full season within that expectation. I think we’ll see a more comfortable Karlsson, playing under a coach he’s had success with in David Quinn and with a more heightened sense of responsibility in the offensive zone.
I predict Karlsson right around a point-per-game this season. And I think he’ll look a whole lot better all-around with that comfort level in the Penguins’ system and with Marcus Pettersson as, hopefully, a more permanent defense partner.
Ryan’s Prediction
The Penguins’ record was 38-32-12, and they missed the postseason by just three points. One reason they got so close but missed was the play of Alex Nedeljkovic, who was 18-7-7 and secured an 8-1-2 record in his final 12 starts.
Technically, Nedeljkovic is a 1B to Tristan Jarry, who got 48 starts and earned a 19-25-5 record, tying Connor Ingram, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Charlie Lindgren for the league lead with six shutouts.
However, no matter how you slice it, goaltending is the Penguins’ Achilles heel. The GAA is respectable at 3.02 (13th best), but it’s not elite, just serviceable.
However, one of the most glaring statistics is the relatively low SV%, with Nedeljkovic at .902 and Jarry at .903.
Meanwhile, in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, one of their top skaters is Joel Blomqvist, who dressed for 45 games, producing a 25-12-6 record with a sparkling .921 SV% and 2.16 GAA.
Even though the NHL and AHL competitions drastically differ, Blomqvist’s .921 SV% was the same as Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck.
Additionally, his GAA was better than that of all three finalists: Sergei Bobrovsky (2.37), Hellebuyck (2.39), and Thatcher Demko (2.45).
Related: THN Penguins’ Predictions: What Will the Final 23-Man Roster Look Like?
Heading into 2024-25, Jarry’s leash will be short. His name’s been in and out of the rumor mill, even though he’s under contract for four more seasons. Moreover, Jarry is in the conversation for Canada at the 4 Nations Face-off, so a strong start can start to rebuild trust with the fan base.
Ultimately, Jarry needs to outplay Nedeljkovic, who already proved he’s ready for a 1A spot or the starting role all to himself. Both NHL goalies must know and understand that Blomqvist is waiting in the wings for his shot.
Considering this upcoming season can be a make-it-or-break-it campaign for the team’s aging core, especially for Jarry’s career in black and gold, Blomqvist will likely get a call-up at some point.
Fellow Swede Magnus Hellberg appeared in three games last season and, in limited action, produced a 1-0-0 record with a .922 SV% and 2.50 GAA. His performance lasted just 120 minutes, which doesn’t mean his numbers would have remained at the level of Igor Shesterkin or Jeremy Swayman.
Yet, with the current state of goaltending in Pittsburgh, Blomqvist could be presented with the opportunity of a lifetime to earn a promotion and seize it, proving to everyone that his stint in the AHL is no fluke.
Without anyone talking about it, the pressure is on Jarry, Nedeljkovic, and Blomqvist since Sergei Murashov, one of the top goalie prospects in pro hockey, is now under contract with the Penguins and will be skating in North America.
If any New York Rangers are out there, they should sit down with a Penguins fan and converse about how Murashov could be the next Shesterkin, an elite goalie skilled to win the Vezina and lead Pittsburgh to the Stanley Cup. That’s how dominant he’s been in Russia.
Armed with that knowledge, it is vital to his future with the organization and career that Blomqvist can play in the NHL and make the most of it by sticking around and contributing on a level unexpected by management and the fanbase.
Related: Predictions for Each Penguins’ Player in 2024-25
Read the full article here
Discussion about this post