In Milwaukee, Phillies can achieve their first significant goal of 2024

In Milwaukee, Phillies can achieve their first significant goal of 2024 originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

The Milwaukee Brewers? Sounds vaguely familiar. Aren’t they the team with a mascot who shimmies down a twisting slide after home runs? AKA the Brew Crew? Used to be the Seattle Pilots? Also used to be in the American League? Plays “The Beer Barrel Polka” during the seventh inning stretch? Bratwurst? Robin Yount? Any of that ring a bell?

When it comes to Phillies rivalries, in other words, the Brewers barely move the needle. They were a speed bump on the way to winning the 2008 World Series. They’re the team that signed Rhys Hoskins as a free agent last winter. That’s about it.

Temporarily, at least, that’s about to change. For the next three nights at American Family Field, it’s Milwaukee standing directly between the Phils and achieving the first significant team objective they had when they first gathered in Clearwater in February: to win the division and avoid playing in the wild-card round.

Even though the Phillies have had success playing the extra series, making it to the World Series in 2022 and coming within one win of going back last year, manager Rob Thomson has made it clear that getting five days off after the regular season ends September 29 in Washington is a top priority.

Winning two of three in the just-completed series against the Mets mattered because the Phillies are trying to amass enough wins to finish with baseball’s best record, which earns home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Catcher J.T. Realmuto said it was like a playoff atmosphere. “These are the types of games you’re going to play in the postseason. These are the type of the opponents we’re going to be playing,” he said. “It’s no secret we love playing here at The Bank and feel like we have the best homefield advantage in baseball. The one-seed is very important to us and we’re going to play as well as we can until we get it.”

The upcoming series in the Badger State, however, presents a more immediate opportunity and more straight-line impact to determine how the teams are seeded when the regular season concludes in two weeks.

Barring a cataclysm, the Phillies will win the National League East, the Brewers the Central and the Dodgers the West. The team with the third-best record will have to compete in the wild card round to advance.

The Phillies presently hold a four-game edge over Milwaukee. So here’s what’s at stake:

• Since they swept Milwaukee at The Bank the first week in June, the Phillies need just one win to clinch the tie-breaker.

• If the Phillies sweep, they’d be 8 up with 10 games left to play. Any combination thereafter of Phillies wins and Brewers losses totaling 3 guarantees a first-round bye.

• If the Phillies win two of three, that Magic Number is 5.

• If the Phillies lose two of three, it’s 7.

• If the Phillies get swept, it’s 9. And the tiebreaker would revert to best record within the division. Right now, Milwaukee is 30-19 against the NLC with just three games (at Pittsburgh) remaining. The Phillies are 26-18 with four at New York and the final weekend at Washington left.

Even though the Phillies took care of the Brewers more than three months ago, it’s worth noting that each of those games was decided by one or two runs, one in extra innings. Also, the venue matters. The Phillies are 52-25 (.675) at Citizens Bank Park this year and 38-34 (.528) everywhere else.

Milwaukee has a better record (50-37) and run differential (+76) since leaving Citizens Bank Park than the Phillies (46-40, +15). And there are two notable reasons for that.

Rookie outfielder Jackson Chourio was hitting .211 with a .592 OPS through that series, but has been raking ever since. Going into Sunday, in his next 81 games, he hit .308/.909. Shortstop Willy Adames left Philadelphia with 9 homers in 63 games and then hit 23 in his subsequent 86 games.

The pitching matchups also offer some behind-the-numbers intrigue. Ranger Suarez (12-6, 3.05) will face Aaron Civale (6-8, 4.57) Monday. That looks good on paper, but Suarez has something to prove. His earned run average is 6.02 in his last eight starts.

In Game 2 it will be Zack Wheeler (15-6, 2.60) vs. Frankie Montas (7-10, 4.49) followed by Aaron Nola (12-8, 3.62) vs. Freddy Peralta (11-8, 3.75). Nola, too, will be looking to right himself. He’s failed to complete five innings in each of his last two starts while giving up a total of 11 earned runs.

All games start at 7:40 p.m. EDT on NBC Sports Philadelphia.