Why an extra bat would make more sense on Phillies’ playoff roster than an arm

Why an extra bat would make more sense on Phillies’ playoff roster than an arm originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

MILWAUKEE — The Phillies have just three regular-season series remaining after leaving Milwaukee and Rob Thomson has started to offer small peeks within games of what they could prioritize on their NLDS roster.

Teams carry 26 players in the postseason, same as they do from April through August before rosters expand to 28 for September.

In October, teams carry either 13 position players and 13 pitchers or 14 position players and 12 pitchers. Most opt for the additional arm, the 13-13 split, but the Phillies appear more likely to go with 14 position players and 12 pitchers, especially in the Best-of-5 Divisional Round.

J.T. Realmuto, Garrett Stubbs, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Edmundo Sosa, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas are 11 locks among position players.

Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, Carlos Estevez, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, Jose Alvarado, Tanner Banks and Jose Ruiz are 11 locks among pitchers.

That’s 22 of 26, leaving four roster spots total for Austin Hays, Weston Wilson, Cal Stevenson, Kody Clemens and Buddy Kennedy among position players, plus pitchers Taijuan Walker, Kolby Allard, Tyler Gilbert, Max Lazar and potentially Spencer Turnbull.

You look at the list of pitchers and wonder whether any of them would serve an actual role in a seven-game series, much less a five-game series. Walker, Allard, Gilbert or Lazar would only appear if a game is lopsided or extends deep into extra innings. Having two pitchers from that group on the postseason roster would seem redundant, especially with off-days leading up to the NLDS and after Games 2 and 4.

In contrast, the extra position player allows for a bit more managerial strategy and likely a platoon advantage in one more plate appearance per night. In the postseason when every at-bat counts, that could matter.

On Monday night in Milwaukee, Thomson pinch-hit the right-handed Kennedy for the lefty-hitting Stevenson in the seventh inning against a southpaw. The Brewers countered by bringing in right-hander Colin Rea and Thomson responded by replacing Kennedy with left-handed-hitting Clemens, who lined out.

It was a three-player move, the kind you might not be able to make with just four extra position players rather than five. The Rojas-Stevenson lineup spot is the one where Thomson would utilize a pinch-hitter, potentially multiple times in a game.

Hays, if healthy, will likely be on the NLDS roster. He hasn’t hit righties but he’s hit .350 this season against lefties. He’ll meet the Phillies at Citi Field on Thursday and go through a full workout before the team determines where he continues his rehab. The kidney infection that has sidelined him since September 1 is out of his system, Thomson said.

Wilson has been such an important piece against lefties that he, too, seems to have an inside track to a roster spot, especially since he can play both the infield and outfield. Hays’ presence would complicate the picture for Wilson and require the Phillies to carry the 14th position player for the sake of having a lefty bat on the bench (Clemens or Stevenson).

Estevez, Hoffman, Strahm and Kerkering are the Phillies’ core four leverage relievers. Alvarado, Banks and Ruiz are likelier to enter in the fourth, fifth or sixth inning after a short start. But even in the event of a short start, Thomson said he’d feel comfortable using one of his key relievers for more than one inning.

“I think we’re in a good spot,” he said before Wednesday’s series finale against the Brewers. “You’ve got the days off so you can push them a little bit, one-plus a guy. Strahm’s able to do it, Hoffman’s able to do it. Alvarado. Kerkering’s done it. A lot of guys have done it, maybe not lately, but I’m confident they’ll be able to do it again.”

Turnbull is in Clearwater trying to work his way back to the bigs. He’s been out since June 26 with a lat strain. Even if he’s not ready for the NLDS, which begins October 5, he could potentially be in play later in the month if the Phillies advance.

Turnbull threw 25 pitches in a live batting practice session Tuesday in Florida.

“We’re just trying to figure out what to do with him next,” Thomson said, “whether it’s another simulated game or an actual game at Lehigh.”

The Triple A season ends for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs on Sunday, so time is running out to get Turnbull or Hays into a game there. If they can’t, they’d either continue their work in Clearwater or back north in Philly.