How Rob Thomson should stack his starting rotation for the postseason

How Rob Thomson should stack his starting rotation for the postseason originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

As the Phillies head toward what they hope will be a long and successful postseason run, most of the pieces are in place. The starting lineup is set; the back end of the bullpen is locked in. But manager Rob Thomson could juggle what many believe to be the main strength of the ballclub in the starting rotation.

They are well on their way to clinching a first-round bye and the best record in baseball, which offers distinct advantages. It guarantees that the starters will get a few extra days of rest between the regular season and their first postseason start. It also means that the first two games of every series going forward will be played at Citizens Bank Park, where the Phillies have been a dominant 12-4 over the past two postseasons.

If the Phillies were to clinch top record in the National League – and all of baseball – Thomson faces a decision when it comes to who pitches Game 2 of each series.

Thomson was elusive when asked after Sanchez’s last start Sunday. “We haven’t really gotten there yet,” the manager said, “Once we get in, if we get in, we’ll figure that out.”

The Game 1 starter isn’t a decision at all. Zack Wheeler has been among the best in the game this season, and will get some votes for the NL Cy Young award. As good as his season numbers have been, he’s even better at home: a 10-3 record in 16 starts with a 2.31 ERA and a .554 opponents’ OPS, both good enough for third in the NL.

As for Game 2? Here’s where Thomson could shake things up, and pull another ace out of his sleeve.

Wheeler’s numbers at home are great. But you know who’s stats at CBP are even better?

Aaron Nola, the incumbent #2? Nope. Ranger Suarez? Not him either.

None other than Cristopher Sanchez.

The 27-year-old has made 16 starts at CBP this season. In 14 of them, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer, the latest master class coming this past Sunday: seven innings, allowing just a run on six hits to a game Mets team desperate for wins.

No NL pitcher has a better ERA in home starts than Sanchez’s 2.05. Moreover, he has the lowest opponents’ OPS in the NL (.538), second-best BB/9 rate (1.37) and HR/9 rate (0.43), and fourth-best in WHIP (0.96). He has gone at least six innings in 13 of his 16 starts, and pitched at least five innings in all of them.

Nola has had his fair share of strong postseason performances in his career.  He is 3-1 in four postseason Game 2 starts over the last two seasons. But if the Phillies start Sanchez in a Game 2 at home, regardless of the Game 1 result, they have as close to a sure thing as they can employ this season.

In addition, having Sanchez start any Game 2 means the team could go righty-lefty-righty-lefty with their rotation in any series.

On opening day, Sanchez was the number-4 starter, behind Wheeler, Nola, and Ranger Suarez. But his performances in home games this season should change the order of the rotation.

For comparison, Sanchez’s numbers this season on the road are wretched. He is 3-6 in 13 starts with a 5.13 ERA. Only two NL pitchers have a worse road ERA than Sanchez.

Despite the vast statistical difference, no one seems to be able to explain his home/road splits.

“I don’t notice anything different when I’m catching him,” said J.T. Realmuto. “It still feels like the stuff is as good. He feels like the same pitcher. I don’t know if there’s something to it or not.”

Regardless of the reason, plugging Sanchez in as the Game 2 starter could ensure the Phillies a split in the first two games of any series at worst, and a 2-0 lead at best.