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The expected tire wear that was on full display in a wild spring race at Bristol Motor Speedway didn‘t occur in practice on Friday. That doesn‘t mean tire wear should be forgotten about as lap times still fell off, just not as drastic as in March. Hendrick Motorsports beamed in qualifying, claiming the top three spots overall. Joe Gibbs Racing had a solid day at the office, with three of its four drivers making the final round of qualifying. Spire Motorsports even got a pair of its entries into the top 10.
RELATED: Set your Fantasy Live lineups
Dustin Albino‘s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Kyle Larson
Starter 2: Denny Hamlin
Starter 3: Christopher Bell
Starter 4: Ty Gibbs
Starter 5: Chris Buescher
Garage pick: Chase Elliott
NEXT IN LINE: Alex Bowman, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe
RISING: The Round of 16 has gone as planned for Bowman and the No. 48 team. His 79 points scored is tied with Austin Cindric for the most in the round of all playoff drivers. Bowman won‘t have traffic out his windshield when he takes the green flag on Saturday, scoring his first pole award since last year‘s Daytona 500 (he started first last spring at Richmond by the metric). It‘s his first pole award on a non-superspeedway since the penultimate race of the 2016 season, filling in for Dale Earnhardt Jr. The No. 48 Chevrolet cracked the top 10 in practice on single-lap speed but was middle-of-the-road over the long run.
Scoring a monster points day compared to the rest of the playoff field at Watkins Glen, Chase Briscoe experienced a 27-point swing to the elimination line, one of the bigger swings in recent memory. His biggest hurdle in hanging on to one of the final spots, he thought, would be qualifying. The No. 14 team delivered on Friday, as Briscoe will start fifth. We‘ve seen this story in past Bristol races (Briscoe has yet to score a top 10 after two top-10 starting spots in four starts), so I‘m not moving the No. 14 car into my lineup.
FALLING: With subpar performances to open the Round of 16 at Atlanta and Watkins Glen, Brad Keselowski‘s bid for a second Cup championship could come to a screeching halt this weekend. Keselowski, a three-time Bristol winner, lacked speed in qualifying and will take the green flag on Saturday night from 23rd position. It‘s not over for Keselowski, though, as his RFK Racing teammate Chris Buescher won the Bristol night race in 2022 after starting 20th — and 500 laps is a long time at the half-mile bullring. However, it might be a stretch to score quality stage points.
After Daniel Suarez reflected on his recent track record at Bristol last weekend, he joked that he wanted a 75-point cushion over the elimination line entering Bristol. Instead, he is 36 points to the good, and while that is comfortable, the No. 99 team might be stressing about its speed — or lack thereof. Suarez was listed as someone to stay away from in Fastlane earlier this week, but it‘s even worse than anticipated. Suarez was 35th on 10-lap averages in practice and matched that in qualifying.
FEATURED MATCHUPS:
Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson: This highly competitive matchup is about as tough to decide now as it was projected earlier this week. Larson appeared to have a tick more speed, leading the way on 25- and 30-lap averages. Hamlin had solid pace, but not as lights out as Larson, who might have the best car in the field entering Saturday evening.
Brad Keselowski vs. Martin Truex Jr.: At some point, Truex‘s racing luck has to flip, right? The only problem is, historically, Bristol is among his worst tracks on the schedule. Meanwhile, it was the No. 19 Toyota that was superior to Keselowski in qualifying. Truex did fall off heavier on the long run and, because this is a heads-up matchup, I‘ll keep Keselowski. RFK Racing has been stellar at Bristol, so all hope shouldn‘t be lost on the No. 6 car this weekend.
Chase Briscoe vs. Ty Gibbs: In one of Briscoe‘s most impressive qualifying efforts of the year, this matchup got more challenging to decide. Gibbs nearly wiped out in qualifying and still managed to barely miss the cut and will line up 13th. I‘ll stay with the No. 54 car, which has led more than 100 laps in the last two Bristol events.
Chase Elliott vs. Ryan Blaney: On first glance, I almost placed Blaney into the “falling” category. It was a mediocre day for Team Penske, with all three of its entries starting 20th or worse. But the No. 12 car showed great speed during longer runs, leading the way on 10-, 15- and 20-lap averages in practice. But history leans in the favor of Elliott. He was the lowest of the HMS drivers in qualifying, but still had a respectable showing in 10th.
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