Phillies’ faith in Nola in hostile territory helped make their rotation decision

Phillies’ faith in Nola in hostile territory helped make their rotation decision originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

NEW YORK — No matter how Game 3 of this chaotic Phillies-Mets NLDS plays out, no matter how his start unfolds, it’s a virtual lock that Aaron Nola will be unaffected by the noise and enormity of the moment Tuesday night at Citi Field.

The Phillies’ decision to start Cristopher Sanchez in Game 2 wasn’t just about Sanchez’ home success. It was equally, if not more so about their faith in Nola to block out the hostility of the environment expected in New York.

“You probably won’t see any different type of excitement out of him pitching Game 1, 2, 3 or a spring training game,” manager Rob Thomson said leading into the Divisional Round.

“That’s why he’s probably a good Game 3 starter for us going into Citi Field. I think it’s just his poise and his calmness that gives him an edge.”

Nola’s made 14 career starts at Citi Field, almost always pitching well with a 2.52 ERA the last dozen. He tied a major-league record there in 2021 with 10 consecutive strikeouts. His best start this season came at Citi Field, a four-hit shutout in mid-May.

But this is different. This is the first time the Phillies have ever played the Mets in the postseason, and this team is so much different than the one the Phils faced in May in New York or June in London.

“Whatever I can do to try to contribute and try to put the team in the best chance to win in a playoff game, whether it’s home or road I was fine with,” Nola said. “This is a pretty cool place to play, a pretty cool place to pitch. I just always thought it was a beautiful ballpark.”

Nola has made nine starts over the past two postseasons and five have been excellent, including three of his four last October. He has been able to elevate his game under the lights, but the reality with Nola is that he’s locked-in during portions of most starts. For him, the difference between a great outing and a bad one is often a couple of pitches in one inning.

“Unless your name is (Zack) Wheeler, all pitchers go through that,” Thomson said last month.

With Nola, the issue is often the home run ball. He throws a ton of strikes and when a two-seamer backs up too far or a curveball hangs, two weapons that can be plus pitches can also be hammered.

He allowed 30 home runs this season after 32 last year. Nearly 35% of the runs that scored on Nola this season came via homers.

He has done a good job, though, of keeping most Mets hitters in the ballpark. Pete Alonso is 16-for-50 (.320) with five homers but all other active Mets hitters have just five in 180 at-bats.

The Alonso matchup will obviously be one to watch. Same for Mark Vientos, who has killed the Phillies already in this series.

“It’s a challenge,” Nola said of facing Alonso. “I’ve thrown some balls over the plate he hasn’t really missed. I think especially playoffs, I think it’s a little bit different, too, because everybody is a little bit more focused. Every pitch is a little bit more heightened and matters just a little bit more.

“I feel like I’ve thrown just about everything to a lot of them. They’ve seen all my pitches, they’ve seen what I have and I’ve seen what they have. It’s all about executing as best as possible against them, throwing the right pitch at the right time and really just trying to get them out any way possible.”

If last week is any indication, Nola might not even factor into the decision — the Mets have tended to score their runs in the eighth inning or beyond. But he has a chance to set a tone for the second phase of the NLDS, and it’s a luxury for any team to be able to put an $172 million starting pitcher out there for Game 3.

“Sometimes you know it’s the adrenaline is going to kick in,” he said. “I feel like overthrowing kind of gets me out of the zone and gets my command out of whack a little bit. So I just really try to settle the emotions down and the adrenaline down a little bit. Just breathe and try to really focus on my next pitch.”