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The Yankees are close to returning to the World Series for the first time since woolly mammoths and saber-toothed cats roamed the earth – er, we mean 2009 – but they need one more victory over the Guardians in the AL Championship Series to get there.
That could come as soon as Saturday, when Carlos Rodón, the sometimes-mystifying, amazingly talented pitcher, is slated to start Game 5 in Cleveland against Tanner Bibee. Rodón could play an outsized role in breaking the Yanks’ Fall Classic drought and help deliver the AL pennant that Yankee fans crave.
And he’ll do it if he can repeat his earlier start in this series or at least come close. More on that in a moment.
After beating the Guardians, 8-6, in another wild game Friday, the Yankees hold a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series. All-time in such seven-game sets, the team leading 3-1 has gone on to win 79-of-93 times (85 percent), according to Sarah Langs of MLB.com. Under the current 2-3-2 format of home-field advantage, teams up 3-1 and playing a Game 5 on the road have won the series 42-of-49 times, or 86 percent.
Sounds like the Yankees are in a good spot. Of course, if we’ve learned anything from this postseason, it’s that nothing is guaranteed except uncertainty. Witness the last two games of the ALCS: The Guardians socked the Yanks with a comeback in Game 3 that might have discombobulated a lesser group, but the Bronx Bombers responded by rallying to win Game 4 against Cleveland’s mighty bullpen after blowing a four-run lead with their own bullpen running on fumes.
Heck, one of the Yanks’ key contributors in Game 4 was Mark Leiter, Jr, who was only on the roster because he was an injury replacement earlier Friday.
Rodón, however, is a key Yankee cog. In Game 1 of this series, he gave up just one run and three hits in six strong innings against the Guardians. It was one of two starts of at least six innings by a Yankee pitcher this October – Gerrit Cole’s seven dynamite frames against the Royals was the other – and the Yanks have won both. In fact, teams in this postseason are 11-5 when their starter goes six frames.
Heavy bullpen use and keeping starters away from opposing lineups a third time through are en vogue in the postseason. But that can get out of whack, too, no matter how trendy or effective it might be. The Guardians’ bullpen, their superpower during the regular season, is fizzling right now.
During the regular season, Cleveland’s pen had a 2.57 ERA, by far baseball’s best. It’s 3.83 in nine postseason games. Only the Mets have thrown more bullpen innings in October than the Guardians, but they’ve also played three more playoff games. In the ALCS alone, Cleveland’s relief ERA is 4.56 and Emmanuel Clase, a weapon of a closer during the season, has a 10.29 postseason ERA.
The Yankees’ own excellent relief core is showing signs of wear, too, after being a big reason the team advanced out of the Division Series. Manager Aaron Boone wanted to stay away from Luke Weaver, a revelation as a late-season replacement at closer, in Game 4 on Friday. Weaver, who had been scored upon in each of his last two appearances, had pitched in every other game this postseason.
It can’t help either team’s bullpen that hitters on both sides have now gotten multiple looks at the high-leverage arms.
Which brings us back to the task for Rodón: Stay in the game. Gobble up some innings with the fastball-slider combo and give the bullpen a break.
In Rodón’s first start this October, he roared his way through the early innings, celebrating every K. Amped up as he was, he couldn’t sustain that effort and lasted just 3.2 innings and the Yankees lost Game 2 of the Division Series with the Royals.
Credit to him, he worked on throttling his emotions. He said he admired the way Cole kept cool during starts and watched Cole work. It helped.
“I thought that I stayed within and just controlled what was in front of me,” Rodón told reporters in the Cleveland interview room prior to Game 4. “And everything behind me and things that I couldn’t control, I just kind of brushed it off. I thought I was very good at that.”
“I think he’s probably the guy I point to the most of just benefiting from the experience of the postseason,” Boone said before Game 4. “Obviously, he’s pitched in the league now for a long time, has had a lot of success, has been through a lot with us, struggling last year, bouncing back the way he did this year.
“Pitching for the first time in a playoff game in The Bronx, coming out hot, and you could see it emotionally. Stuff was great early, but probably petered out a little bit and I think he grew from that.”
Rodón is in a good spot, ahead, 3-1, with less pressure on his start than if the series was even. His stuff is good and he’s learned a thing or two about ratcheting back his own inner heat.
Now, can he push the Yankees to that elusive AL pennant?
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