AC MILAN v NAPOLI: OPPONENT REVIEW

The first midweek clash of the Serie A 2024/25 promises serves us with a big match which is never boring. AC Milan host Napoli – the current leaders – at San Siro for Matchday Ten in the league. Head Coach Fonseca’s Rossoneri come off the back of the postponement of their match against Bologna, while Antonio Conte’s Azzurri come into the game after a 1-0 home win against Lecce, with the decisive goal being scored by captain Di Lorenzo. The win over the Salentini was their fifth consecutive win in all competition, extending their unbeaten run to nine games – only one draw against Juventus (0-0) and eight wins in this run.

A record run since the first game, after the 3-0 loss against Hellas Verona, Napoli have changed gear and their defence have really shone: they have had six clean sheets in nine games. The summer market has transformed their side, given that they finished tenth last season, starting from the change in management which has gone hand in hand with important arrivals like Lukaku, Neres, McTominay, Buongiorno and a few more. The ambitions of the side are back and not playing in other competitions allows for the team to really shine, the Rossoneri should expect a true crash test especially considering some of the absences they have from the squad.

COMPACT AND FEW RISKS, LESS POSSESSION BUT MORE MANAGED ACTIONS
With this start of the season, Napoli have changed formations and players around but they haven’t compromised on their style of play and attitude. They played with a back three, but now with a back four in front of Meret, just like the Rossoneri. Compared to AC Milan, the Azzurri tend to have less possession of the ball on average (50% to the 54% of Fonseca’s side), a significant factor when we consider that – at least on paper – Conte’s side have had a more manageable schedule. Napoli have been a cynical and compact team so far.

Characteristics evidenced by the “only” seven big chances missed compared to the Diavolo’s 19, on the other hand, confirmed by the xG excluding penalty kicks: a statistic comparabile with 1.48 and 1.42, with 0.74 goals conceded by the Campania side and 0.92 by AC Milan (90min). Another difference in the attacking phases comes from the buildup before shots taken by the two sides, Napoli are ahead for managed actions per 90 minutes, 11.2 compared to AC Milan’s 9.5 Milan, the Rossoneri conduct more counter attacks, 1.2 compared to the Azzurri’s 0.6.

LUKAKU OFFERS MORE THAN GOALS, BUONGIORNO ALREADY A LEADER
The Conte-Lukaku partnership works, his physical condition still is not optimal but Lukaku has still contributed with his strength and intelligence. Seven games in the league during which he has made goal contributions, but the more important statistic is the number of assists: four, to go with three goals. Napoli’s game centres around a focal point like the Belgian, who uses his physicality to make space and provide channels for the midfielders and wide players. The 1993 born has already scored five against the Rossoneri, all under the management of Conte. The entire team is benefitting from him, given that he has made four key passes for Di Lorenzo, Kvaratskhelia, McTominay and Neres.

Stopping the reinforcements will be key, but there will need to be maximum attention in one on one situations, another strength of the Nerazzurri, especially with Neres who has the most number of successful dribbles in the league per 90 minutes (3.6 followed by Okafor on 3.4 and then Leão on 2.8). The defence is solid, Buongiorno is already showing himself to be a good leader. In terms of the four starters, the Italian centre back is the only summer arrival but doesn’t seem to have been too affected by the change of leadership and team. He is used to playing in a back three but his impact has been surprising and he continues to excel in winning duels and stopping dribbles (90% win rate, only lost one).

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