Livescore
Houston Astros
2024 record: 88-73
1st place, AL West
Team ERA: 3.74 (6th in MLB)
Team OPS: .740 (8th in MLB)
What Went Right
On June 18th, the Astros were 10 games back in the division, but Houston proved once again that it’s a long season. The Astros outlasted the Seattle Mariners and defending World Series champion Texas Rangers to win the division for the fourth year in a row and seventh time in the last eight years. The Astros’ offensive core of Yordan Alvarez (168 wRC+), Kyle Tucker (180 wRC+), Jose Altuve (127 wRC+) and Alex Bregman (118 wRC+) all had productive years, though a shin injury limited Tucker to 78 games. Framber Valdez (3.08 xFIP) had another ace-level season. Hunter Brown (3.47 xFIP) recovered from allowing nine runs in his third start of the season to have a 2.88 ERA over his last 27 starts of the year. Similarly, rookie Spencer Arrighetti (4.01 xFIP) had a 3.31 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 87 innings over his last 15 starts. Yusei Kikuchi (2.74 xFIP) was excellent in 10 starts after being acquired at the trade deadline.
What Went Wrong
The Astros’ streak of seven straight years in the ALCS came to an end as they were swept by the Detroit Tigers and former Astros manager A.J. Hinch in the Wild Card Series in two games in Houston. The Astros’ prize addition from last offseason closer Josh Hader coughed up Game 2 of the series by allowing a three-run double to Andy Ibanez. In a way it was a microcosm of Hader’s season as he had a career-high eight losses despite a 2.93 xFIP. Two offseasons ago, the Astros gave a big contract to first baseman Jose Abreu, who was released after having a 0 wRC+ in 120 plate appearances. In his stead, Jon Singleton had a 105 wRC+ in 405 plate appearances, which is fine but not enough to justify the money Houston gave Abreu. In 2023, Chas McCormick hit 22 home runs with 19 stolen bases and had a 133 wRC+ in 457 plate appearances, but he was hurt and had a 66 wRC+ in 267 plate appearances this year. That led to Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon getting a lot of playing time. Meyers (86 wRC+) and Dubon (87 wRC+) had 513 and 428 plate appearances respectively and that was too much for players of their caliber.
Injuries limited Cristian Javier to seven starts, Luis Garcia missed the entire season and Lance McCullers Jr. missed the entire season for the second year in a row and third time in the last six years. Finally, Justin Verlander had the worst season of his career. The 41-year-old who came back to Houston via a midseason trade in 2023 and finished with a 3.22 ERA in 27 starts, had a 5.13 xFIP in 17 starts in 2024 and was left off the playoff roster.
Fantasy Slants
**Yainer Diaz (117 wRC+) followed up a breakout rookie campaign with an impressive first full major league season. Diaz hit .299 with 16 home runs, 84 RBI and 70 runs scored in his age-25 season. He couldn’t repeat the prodigious power he displayed in 2023 when he hit 23 home runs in 104 games and had a .256 ISO, but he had a 17 percent strikeout percentage and hit .299 in 585 at-bats. Diaz proved he can really swing it. He’s one of the best catchers in fantasy entering 2025 and he has the potential to hit for more power than the .142 ISO he had in 2024.
**Jeremy Pena hit .266 with 15 home runs, 20 stolen bases, 78 runs scored and 78 RBI. It was a solid fantasy season for the 27-year-old shortstop, but not exactly a breakout year. I’m not sure one is coming at this point for the former ALCS and World Series Most Valuable Player. Pena’s strikeout percentage has improved from 24 percent in 2022 to 20 percent in 2023 to 17 percent in 2024. With Pena not being a power hitter, he’s going to need to have a high BABIP season to lead to an outlier batting average for a breakout. It hasn’t happened yet and would be impossible to predict, but if he can maintain his 17 percent strikeout percentage, he has a chance.
**Ronel Blanco had a 2.80 ERA in 29 starts this year, but it’s impossible to ignore his 4.09 xFIP. He allowed a .220 BABIP, which was the lowest among qualified starting pitchers, and had an 83 percent left on base percentage, which was the highest among qualified starting pitchers. Blanco isn’t without merit, his 24 percent strikeout percentage was 20th among qualified starters, but his 4.17 SIERA was tied for the 18th highest among qualified starters with Michael Wacha. It’s unlikely he’ll be able to live up to his likely costly 2025 draft price given his success in 2024 was largely driven by factors out of his control.
Key Free Agents
Alex Bregman, Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Verlander, Hector Neris, Jason Heyward
Team Needs
The Astros are like most playoff teams in that they could use another starter and bullpen depth, but aren’t in need of an overhaul. What makes this offseason unique for Houston is that once again one of its core players is hitting free agency in Alex Bregman. The Astros have navigated similar situations when they let George Springer and Carlos Correa walk in free agency before, but now they’re dealing with the additional challenge of their payroll. Houston owes $19.5 million to Abreu and $11.5 million to Rafael Montero next year and neither of them are still on the 40-man roster. Ryan Pressly’s $14 million option vested. Javier is owed $52 million through 2027 and McCullers Jr. is owed $34 million through 2026. That’s a lot of money committed to players that frankly aren’t going to help them very much or in most cases at all next year.
MLB Trade Rumors estimates the Astros’ payroll including arbitration and pre-arbitration players to be at $212 million entering the offseason. For reference, the Astros ended the season with a $244 million payroll according to Roster Resource. Houston is in a precarious position with its payroll considering Bregman is arguably the top position player free agent this offseason not named Juan Soto. The Astros are going to have to get creative when it comes to retaining Bregman, if that’s the route they choose, while also making sure they have enough pitching to get back to the playoffs.
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