SEC picks, odds in Week 10: Georgia game provides defining moment for Billy Napier's future at Florida

Eight SEC teams are still in the hunt for a College Football Playoff spot as we head into the final month of the regular season, but only four have room for error.

LSU, Alabama, Missouri and Ole Miss can not afford another loss after picking up two apiece heading into November. Three of those teams are off this week, which means all eyes are on No. 19 Ole Miss as it travels to face a dangerous Arkansas squad that has a history of upsetting top-25 teams (No. 4 Tennessee) and has won five straight since 2010 against the Rebels in Fayetteville.

Elsewhere, No. 7 Tennessee tries to solidify itself as a playoff power against Kentucky; No. 10 Texas A&M travels to South Carolina for perhaps the best matchup in the SEC this week.

Florida-Georgia is also on the docket, meaning SEC title hopes are on the line for the Bulldogs while an opposing coach’s career hangs in the balance.

We’ll get to the Week 10 slate and our predictions, but first let’s check in on a few storylines and notes.

Billy Napier’s defining moment arrives

One game can change a season. For Billy Napier, it could change his career.

The Florida coach sits atop the hottest seat in the SEC, and with the toughest remaining schedule in the conference, he’ll either steer his fate over the cliff or into protected lands. Certainly, Florida has improved since starting the season with blowout losses to nationally ranked Miami and Texas A&M, and it should have defeated top-10 Tennessee on the road earlier this month, but close isn’t good enough for the Gators faithful. A losing season is especially not gonna cut it with so many coaching gaffes over the last two years (substitution patterns and penalties, quarterback competitions and questionable play-calls in tight games).

“Mindset has shifted a little bit, I think,” Napier said this week of Florida’s recent performances. “The makeup of our team, we’re in a lot better place in that regard. Look, I mean, it’s a production business. We got to do it on the grass. We played better the last few weeks, a little bit more like we anticipated playing as a team — certain parts of our team in particular. But, yeah, I have a respect for the attitude and the effort of the group, the resiliency of the group.”

Now comes the ultimate opportunity for Napier. No. 2 Georgia is a behemoth and might be playing the best overall football in the country over the last few weeks. A win as a two-touchdown betting underdog against his chief rival would shift the tenor in Napier’s favor, but it doesn’t calm the waters. Florida has four straight weeks of ranked opponents on the schedule, which also includes No. 6 Texas, No. 16 LSU and No. 19 Ole Miss.

A win Saturday might not save his job, but it certainly pushes him closer to the unexpected: a fourth season leading the Gators.

Just a SECond

A few notes to digest from the CBS Sports Research team:
The last four SEC teams to hold their first seven opponents to under 20 points went on to win the national title. Tennessee has held its first seven opponents to under 20.
The Vols haven’t scored a point in the first half of a game since Sept. 21.
Texas A&M is the only FBS team with multiple wins against AP Top 10 teams.
Mike Elko’s 7-1 record is the best start to a Texas A&M coaching career since 1917 (Dana Bible).
Ole Miss leads the nation in scoring defense (11 ppg).
Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart leads the nation in yards per pass attempt (11).
Georgia’s last loss to a team other than Alabama was to Florida in 2020.
Georgia has won three straight games by 20-plus points against Florida, the best streak in school history.
Florida has lost 12 straight games against teams ranked in the top 2 of the AP poll.
Florida QB DJ Lagway averaged 37 yards per completion against Kentucky last week, the best average by an FBS quarterback since 2018 (minimum five completions).

Picks

Straight up: 64-17 | Against the spread: 40-34-2
Odds via DraftKings. Use DraftKings promo code to get in the game for all of college football’s Week 10 action.

No. 19 Ole Miss at Arkansas

Ole Miss can not afford another loss as it holds desperately tight to its playoff hopes. The Rebels’ offense is still dangerous, but they haven’t quite been consistent in recent weeks. The defense has carried them in tight games, particularly last week with an incredible nine sacks against Oklahoma. Arkansas’ defense has been hot and cold in recent weeks, shutting down Tennessee in an upset before allowing LSU to run all over the Hogs in a 34-10 loss in Fayetteville. The Hogs’ defense gave up a lot of yards last week and the offense scored 58. One offense seems primed to score in this matchup, so expect a game that could potentially end in the upper 20s or low 30s. Hogs cover the spread but Ole Miss keeps its CFP dreams alive before hosting Georgia next week. Pick: Arkansas +7

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Deigo Pavia owns Hugh Freeze. The Vanderbilt quarterback is 2-0 against the Auburn coach, throwing six touchdown passes in New Mexico State’s double-digit margins against Freeze’s previous teams at Auburn and Liberty. Now, he’s knocking off and putting scares into the SEC’s giants (Alabama and Texas). Auburn finally picked up its first SEC win with an impressive second-half performance at Kentucky, which also lost to Vandy earlier this season, thanks to running back Jarquez Hunter, who now leads the SEC in rushing. Vanderbilt had an OK performance against Texas, though it never seemed the Longhorns were in trouble during the Commodores’ rally in the second half. If the Tigers avoid a slew of turnovers by QB Payton Thorne and can lean on Hunter as they finally did last week, the Tigers will beat Vandy and Freeze will get over his Pavia curse. Pick: Auburn -6.5

Florida vs. No. 2 Georgia (Jacksonville)

If you’re looking for a hole to poke in Georgia, look at the turnovers. The Bulldogs continue to roll despite committing nine turnovers in the last four games, losing the turnover battle with a -3 margin during that time. Florida is performing at a better clip lately but doing so against unranked teams, against whom they own a 4-0 record. DJ Lagway has provided a spark, going 2-0 as a starter while throwing for 357.5 yards per game. The Gators have lost six straight against nationally ranked teams. This is the first game of what was believed in the preseason to be the most difficult stretch in the sport’s history. This is probably also the most uneven matchup in the final month of the season. Pick: Georgia -16.5

No. 10 Texas A&M at South Carolina

This might be the most intriguing matchup this week. South Carolina seems primed for an upset, having pushed LSU and Alabama to the limit while drilling Oklahoma and Kentucky on the road. Might this be Shane Beamer’s time? At the very least, we should get a great show with dual quarterbacks Marcel Reed and LaNorris Sellers on the field. Reed came off the bench to lead Texas A&M to five straight scoring drives in a comeback against LSU last week. Sellers nearly led an upset on the road at Alabama three weeks ago. South Carolina has lost eight straight against ranked teams, and at some point the Gamecocks are gonna jump on someone. Is this the week? We’ll lean toward the Aggies, whose offense seems to be more explosive with Reed at the controls, but can he throw the ball consistently? Pick: Texas A&M -2.5

Kentucky at No. 7 Tennessee

Kentucky can’t score. Tennessee hasn’t scored in the first half since September. One of those trends will be bucked Saturday. The Vols’ offense came back to life in the second half two weeks ago in the big win against Alabama, and the feeling here is this sets up as the perfect “get right” game for Josh Heupel’s team. Kentucky struggles against average teams to crack three touchdowns, and against one of the nation’s best units (especially in the trenches), the Wildcats may just crumble in a blowout. Nico Iamaleava throws for 250-plus and Dylan Sampson eclipses 100 yards on the ground as Tennessee racks up style points before the first CFP rankings next week. Pick: Kentucky +16.5