Patriots-Rams preview: How Pats can slow down L.A.'s elite pass rush

Patriots-Rams preview: How Pats can slow down L.A.’s elite pass rush originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

FOXBORO — The Patriots are into the back half of their first season under head coach Jerod Mayo, and it’s worth drilling down on what exactly his team should be out to prove this year.

They should be focused on further solidifying that their quarterback of the future is, in fact, their quarterback of the future. They should be focused on figuring out what they have for 2025 at wide receiver and on the offensive line.

But there are bigger-picture goals to accomplish with the seven games remaining on the schedule. This is the time of year when Mayo and his staff can cement the culture they’ve tried to establish in Foxboro. Asked about that very topic on Friday, he brought up one player’s name — a player most Patriots fans probably wouldn’t know if they walked by him coming out of Bass Pro Shops at Patriot Place — who personified a key part of the standard they’re trying to establish in Year 1 of this new regime.

“It’s a work in progress,” Mayo said of the culture he hopes becomes woven into the fabric of the organization. “Anytime you’re trying to develop a culture, it takes a long time. I would also say culture is what you reward. You saw a guy like Jeremiah Pharms, who at one point in his career played offensive line, but at the same time he’s a defensive lineman, and he goes out there and practices every day, hard. He’s going to get more and more snaps on the field. That’s what you reward, and that soon becomes your culture.”

Pharms had one of the most winding roads to the NFL of anyone in recent Patriots history. He began his collegiate career at Sacramento State as a linebacker, then transferred to Delta Junior College in California before finally landing at Friends University in Wichita, Kansas. After graduating, he played in the Arena Football League and the USFL and later signed with the Patriots practice squad in 2022. He was asked to gain weight to play on the interior, then the team tried him on the offensive line, and he eventually worked his way onto the field for a regular season game for the first time last year in a loss to the Cowboys.

Last week against the Bears, Pharms started the game and finished with five tackles, a sack and three tackles for loss.

“Awesome,” said defensive line coach Jerry Montgomery this week. “Just proud of the kid. No one’s ever given him a chance. The way he works. The way he goes about his business. He’s a professional. You ask him to do something, he tries like hell to do it the way you’re asking him to do it. And, you know what? He went out on the field and did exactly what we talked about doing….

“He’s just hungry. Kid was in the building this morning at five o’clock watching film with me. That’s just him every Thursday morning. He’s at my desk at 5 a.m., watching film. No one else is around. No one knows. He doesn’t say anything to anybody else. He wants to be here in the worst way. He works every day like he’s getting cut tomorrow.”

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Whether it’s holding Pharms up as an example for how the Patriots will reward the hard work they witness from players behind the scenes, or whether it’s offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt rewarding players for physically lifting their teammates off the ground on game days, the team is trying to build something when it comes to their culture.

That culture won’t fully take hold unless players can see that what the organization rewards ultimately results in victories, but they have a shot at their third in four weeks on Sunday against the Rams.

How can they get there? Let’s dig into the matchups.

Matchup that will determine the outcome

Patriots running game vs. Rams defensive front

The Patriots have been a predictable offense this season because they know exactly what they need to do in order to survive some of their personnel deficiencies. Don’t have the players to protect in obvious passing situations or defeat one-on-one coverage on the outside consistently? Try to avoid those situations altogether.

They’re 10th in the league in run rate on first down this season despite being one of the worst rushing teams in football this season from an efficiency standpoint. They’ve averaged just 2.4 yards per hand-off since Week 6, which is worst in the NFL. But in order to avoid third-and-long situations, they’ve appeared comfortable trying to play it safe, stay “on schedule,” and do what they can to keep their third downs manageable.

They ran for 3.9 yards per carry with their backs last week in Chicago, which is far from world-beating stuff, but it was effective enough to keep the Patriots fairly unpredictable on third down. On average, on third down, they needed just four yards for a fresh set of downs, and thus had a more even run-pass split than most — they had the sixth-highest run rate in football last week (35.7 percent) — en route to a win.

They’ll need to come up with a way to generate enough of a running game on early downs against the Rams this weekend to remain similarly unpredictable on third down. Why? Los Angeles has been one of the best pass-rushing teams in football this year, and Alex Van Pelt should be as dead-set as humanly possible on neutralizing that strength. (More on that below.)

The question is this: Can the Patriots run it competently enough to keep the Rams defense away from Drake Maye on third down? Seems unlikely. According to NextGen Stats, since their Week 6 bye, the Rams are allowing a league-low 3.5 yards per carry and an explosive rush rate (10 yards or more) of just 6.2 percent, which is the third-lowest in the NFL.

Matchup that will take years off your life

Rams pass-rush vs. Patriots offensive line

This group, it’s safe to say, is going to be a handful for the Patriots and their protection plans.

“The front is special,” Van Pelt said this week. “It’s a group of young, talented players playing with a lot of confidence right now. They’re physical. They’re violent. They’re fast. If you had to circle an area for them, what you would highlight is their defensive line.”

The Rams are the only team in the NFL with four players who’ve created at least 25 pressures, and they’re led by rookie Jared Verse. The Florida State product has the third-best pressure rate in the NFL this season (20.4 percent), and he’s racked up 45 pressures to go along with 4.5 sacks. His matchup with left tackle Vederian Lowe (questionable, shoulder) is worth watching since Verse has spent two-thirds of his pass-rushing snaps going against the offensive left.

Verse and his collegiate teammate Braden Fiske are the top rookie pass-rushing duo in football. Fiske has 26 pressures of his own, which NextGen Stats has determined makes the tandem the most productive pass-rushing twosome the NFL has seen (through 10 weeks) in the last seven years.

Not great news for the Patriots, who own the second-worst pressure rate allowed figure in the league (42.6), and whose quarterback has struggled with pass-rushers bearing down on him. On the season, Maye has a quarterback rating when under pressure of 64.1, which ranks him 25th out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks. His EPA per dropback when under pressure slots him 32nd out of 35 qualifiers.

Two ways in which the Patriots can survive the Rams onslaught (aside from running the football effectively enough that the opposition can’t pin its ears back in clear-cut passing situations)?

They can hope that Maye creates well enough off-script that the chains continue to move. He’s excelled when creating outside of structure this season, per FTN Data, with the highest “create rate” in the NFL and the third-best EPA per play in those outside-structure moments. The Rams have had trouble getting quarterbacks down on the ground this season, allowing 6.2 yards after contact on quarterback scrambles, the second-most in the league.

The Patriots could also try to screen the Rams to death, using their young pass-rushers’ aggressiveness against them. The screen game has been a work in progress for Van Pelt’s unit this year, ranking 23rd in yards per attempt on screens and 31st in quarterback rating on those types of passes. But the Rams allow the fourth-most yards per attempt on screens in the league this season (7.7).

Matchup that will surprise you

Rams running game vs. Patriots defense

As much as the matchup in the trenches for the Patriots offense is a daunting one, there is a path to the home team keeping this game close. And it doesn’t necessarily hinge on the Rams traveling to the East Coast to play an early game after having played on Monday night, when they lost to the Dolphins.

As much as the Patriots have struggled to stop opposing running games — their win over Chicago was the first time in eight weeks they had prevented an offense from gaining 100 yards on the ground — the Rams have struggled just as much to find room to run offensively. Only the Raiders (3.5 yards per run play) average fewer yards on the ground than the Rams (3.8). If the Patriots deploy loaded boxes on a regular basis to ensure that Sean McVay doesn’t get his early-down running game going — the Rams average a league-worst 2.7 yards per carry against loaded boxes this year — then that might be able to create some obvious passing situations for Matthew Stafford on third down.

As talented as Stafford is, and as much as Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua can help carry a passing game, the Rams have scuffled against man-to-man coverage this year. Stafford’s EPA against man coverage this season, per NextGen Stats, is the second-lowest in the NFL.

Two additional issues for the Rams offense in this one? Their top two right tackles look like they’ll be out, and their red-zone success rate is third-worst in the NFL this season.

Add it all up, and it only increases the likelihood that the Rams will have as hard a time scoring points as the Patriots will. Almost.