Paths for Ohio State, Penn State to make 2024 Big Ten Championship Game with league’s complex tiebreakers

No. 1 Oregon can all but assure itself a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game if it wins at Wisconsin on Saturday. While a Ducks victory would bring the league one step closer to nailing down a spot in the league title game, which is set for Dec. 7 on CBS, there are still three other teams jockeying for a spot as well.

No. 2 Ohio State, No. 4 Penn State and No. 5 Indiana each have paths to the Big Ten Championship Game. In fact, both the Buckeyes and Hoosiers control their own destinies since they face each other in a pivotal showdown next week. Either one could punch their ticket simply by winning out. By contrast, the Nittany Lions will need to win out and get some help if they are going to make their first league title game appearance since 2016. 

The eradication of divisions and the expansion of the Big Ten from 14 to 18 teams has changed the postseason picture. Gone are the simpler days when the East and West division champions met for the title. Now, there is a much higher likelihood of complicated tiebreaker scenarios having a say in determining who will make it to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis to play for the conference championship.

Before we dive into the possible Big Ten tiebreaker scenarios entering Week 12, here’s a rundown of how ties will be settled.

1. The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
2. The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
3. The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings.
4. The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
5. The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
6.The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the commissioner or designee.

Big Ten tiebreaker scenarios

Oregon (7-0) 

Wins: UCLA (3-4), Michigan State (2-4), Ohio State (5-1), Purdue (0-6), Illinois (3-3), Michigan (3-4), Maryland (1-5)
Remaining: Wisconsin (3-3), Washington (3-4)

Oregon’s cleanest path would be winning its final two games against Wisconsin and Washington to wrap the regular season at 12-0 (9-0 Big Ten). The Ducks would still be in good position to claim a spot in the championship game via tiebreaker if they finished those two games 1-1. However, one scenario that would put Oregon at risk is if there was a four-way tie for first. Since all four tied teams would not have played each other, it would likely be criteria No. 4 breaking the tie.

Ohio State (5-1) 

Wins: Michigan State (2-4), Iowa (4-3), Nebraska (2-4), Penn State (5-1), Purdue (0-6)
Loss: Oregon (7-0)
Remaining: Northwestern (2-4), Indiana (7-0), Michigan (3-4)

If Ohio State wins its final three games, it will make the Big Ten Championship Game. That is the ticket for the Buckeyes. Though there are a few tiebreaker scenarios in which the Buckeyes could still make it as a two-loss team, those are highly unlikely because they would require Penn State to lose another game and Indiana to lose twice.

Indiana (7-0) 

Wins: UCLA (3-4), Maryland (1-5), Northwestern (2-4), Nebraska (2-4), Washington (3-4), Michigan State (2-4), Michigan (3-4)
Remaining: Ohio State (5-1), Purdue (0-6)

Indiana can get in by beating Ohio State and Purdue to close the regular season. But a loss to the Buckeyes would greatly complicate the Hoosiers’ path to the title game; they would likely need both Ohio State and Penn State to take a second conference loss.

Penn State (5-1)

Wins: Illinois (3-3), UCLA (3-4), USC (2-5), Wisconsin (3-3), Washington (3-4)
Loss: Ohio State (5-1)
Remaining: Purdue (0-6), Minnesota (4-3), Maryland (1-5)

For starters, Penn State needs to win its final three games. From there, the Nittany Lions would still need some help. Ohio State beating Indiana but then losing to Michigan would open the door. The Nittany Lions would then be well-positioned to reach the Big Ten Championship Game over Indiana via tiebreaker scenario No. 4.