Ole Miss was supposed to benefit from expanded CFP, but Florida loss is an all too familiar shortcoming

Ole Miss’ 24-17 loss to Florida continues a familiar storyline that has plagued even its best seasons in the modern era. The Rebels have never played in the SEC Championship Game — which began in 1992 — and must go all the way back to 1963 to find their last conference title. 

Great players and coaches have come through Oxford, delivering huge moments and big wins, but over the course of a season, the Rebels have too often struggled to string together enough successful moments to propel them into SEC title contention.

The last time Ole Miss was on the field, a record crowd of 68,126 stormed a rain-soaked field after the Rebels downed Georgia 28-10. The Bulldogs were the highest-ranked visiting team to lose in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, and the College Football Playoff implications were clear in the wake of the win. Tiebreaker scenarios weren’t favorable to Ole Miss in terms of making the SEC title game, but with a head-to-head win against Georgia, the Rebels were well-positioned to compete for an at-large spot in the 12-team playoff bracket — as long as they finished the season 10-2.

With Florida and Mississippi State on the schedule for the final two games, Ole Miss spent part of the off-week thinking about the future. Lane Kiffin discussed the potential advantages of not playing in the SEC Championship Game, and fans took to social media to argue for playoff inclusion, and even a top-8 seed that could bring a home-field playoff game in the first round.

Instead, Ole Miss let history rear its ugly head Saturday. The loss to the Gators eliminates the Rebels from SEC title contention again and potentially cost them a shot at the College Football Playoff.

Those comments about the SEC Championship Game came from a coach speaking to other coaches concerned about what a third loss would do to a team’s playoff profile. But context will be lost, because fans will remember only that Lane Kiffin was discussing how it might be better not to play in the title game — just before a devastating loss that crushed their playoff hopes.

Now in his fifth year at Ole Miss, Kiffin has already achieved sustained success not seen since Johnny Vaught, the coach responsible for six SEC championships and all three of the program’s claimed national titles. Kiffin has raised the standard and expectations, given Ole Miss an identity and utilized the tools of modern roster construction to field competitive teams without needing total rebuilds. 

The Rebels lean heavily on the transfer portal, but not all portal additions are short-term solutions. The ability to find players who can contribute for multiple years is as advantageous as landing a blue-chip high school prospect. While the locker room is a wide-ranging collection of backgrounds and personalities, it’s Kiffin who has pulled them together and kept the program moving in a winning direction year after year.

But Saturday’s loss will sting for Kiffin, who had a chance to follow up the Georgia win with a College Football Playoff run. With multiple New Year’s Six appearances, Kiffin’s Ole Miss program was among those most expected to benefit from an expanded playoff field. 

The Rebels could have made the CFP in previous years under this year’s format, and with the Georgia win in the bag, all Kiffin needed to do was land the plane.

While the game itself lacked the drama of others, it brought back memories of Ole Miss facing Arkansas in 2015. After an early season win against Alabama and victories against division foes Texas A&M and Auburn, the Rebels needed only to hold serve for a trip to the SEC title game. 

They had the Razorbacks seemingly stopped on a 4th-and-25 in overtime until Hunter Henry’s baffling one-handed lateral over his head was picked up off the bounce by Alex Collins and advanced for a first down. Arkansas proceeded to score and walk it off with a 2-point conversion to win in Oxford.

Many remember the incredible sequence as the moment that cost Ole Miss the SEC West. But in truth the same team threw a wrench into Ole Miss’ postseason hopes in 2015 and 2024 — Florida.

The Rebels were up to No. 3 in rankings after beating Alabama, but it was a loss in The Swamp that narrowed the margin for error throughout October and November. 

Florida twice crushing Ole Miss’ lofty hopes carries some poetic intrigue. It was the Rebels who upset the Gators in 2008, prompting Tim Tebow’s famous “promise” after the game. Tebow followed through on his word and delivered the Gators a second national title in three years. 

With Florida’s win on Saturday, the Gators are now 3-0 against Ole Miss since “the promise”. 

Ole Miss will now move on to the Egg Bowl and root for the kind of chaos that arrived on its doorstep this weekend. If the Rebels win, a 9-3 record with a win against Georgia will get a look from the selection committee. But as a three-loss team with multiple losses to unranked teams is not going to win a lot of tiebreaker scenarios. 

The expanded CFP format was seemingly built for Ole Miss to make its first-ever playoff appearance, and after logging one of its biggest wins in program history the job was seemingly done. But those first appearances can be deceiving. The mirage of Ole Miss’ playoff push was revealed to be another Ole Miss football nightmare.