Yes, It’s Too Early To Condemn Kyle Dubas

As it stands now, the Pittsburgh Penguins are in free fall.

They are mired in a three-game losing streak, have a league-worst goal differential of minus-34, and find themselves in the basement of the Metropolitan Division standings at 7-12-4 with only two teams – the Chicago Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks – having a points percentage lower than their .391.

Whatever they’re doing, it’s not working. But, maybe, that is – in a way – an unfortunate consequence of a much larger plan.

Penguins’ GM and POHO Kyle Dubas has had his work cut out for him since being hired by Pittsburgh on June 1, 2023. At the time, the Penguins had just missed the postseason for the first time since 2006, and he was tasked with getting an aging team back to the playoffs without mortgaging the future.

For anyone, that’s a tall task. Given that the Penguins missed the postseason again in 2023-24 and are off to an abysmal start in 2024-25, it’s easy to say that Dubas hasn’t done the best job during his tenure so far.

But let’s just pump the brakes on that for a second.

In what has been almost a year and half’s worth of time, Dubas has had some big swings, and he’s had some big misses – but a large part of his story has yet to be told.

So, where has he missed, where has he hit, and what remains to be seen?

Where he has missed: Free agency

There are several contracts that Dubas has simply missed on during his time in Pittsburgh, and these are moves that may have cost them some competitiveness in the now.

The biggest misses in free agency to date were the signing of defenseman Ryan Graves to a six-year, $27 million contract and the extension of goaltender Tristan Jarry at five years, $26.88 million – both occuring during the 2023 offseason.

In fairness to Dubas, Graves came off of a good season with New Jersey, and the goaltending market was extremely thin when Jarry was signed. But both of these deals look like duds in hindsight, and the term on both is concerning and could affect the team for years.

As for his other free agent signings? It’s certainly been a mixed bag: Some notable players he’s signed include goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic to both a free agent contract in 2023 and a two-year extension in 2024, as well as Jesse Puljujarvi, Blake Lizotte, Matt Grzelcyk, Anthony Beauvillier, Matt Nieto, Noel Acciari, and Emil Bemstrom.

Again, a mixed bag, but certainly no one that significantly moves the needle in terms of helping the team now, which was part of the goal – especially last season.

So, in terms of keeping the team competitve in the short-term, Dubas has missed up to this point.

Where he has hit: The trade market

When many people think of Dubas’s trade history in Pittsburgh, they immediately jump to the Erik Karlsson trade. That trade – still the largest (by scale) trade in the history of the franchise – was, perhaps, his biggest swing, and it came in the summer of 2023 when the Penguins were still pushing hard to compete.

Karlsson’s results in Pittsburgh have been a mixed bag, but at the end of the day, the trade itself was still a win. They saved $3 million in cap space, offloaded four bad contracts, and got a future Hall-of-Fame defenseman coming off an historic 101-point season. They did lose their 2024 first-round pick that ended up being center Konsta Helenius, but that’s a deal that any GM makes in the position that Dubas was in at the time.

But, even taking away the Karlsson trade, Dubas has had next to no misses so far in the trade market. Here is every trade he’s made with the Penguins since the Karlsson trade:

   – Oct. 17: D Jack Rathbone, F Karel Plasek to PIT; D Mark Friedman, F Ty Glover to VAN
     – Jan. 6: Conditional 2026 seventh-Round Draft Pick to PIT; F Rem Pitlick to CHI
     – Jan. 25: F Maxim Cajkovic to PIT; D Will Butcher to MIN
     – Feb. 22: F Emil Bemstrom to PIT; Alex Nylander and a Conditional 2026 Sixth-Round Draft Pick to CBJ
     – Mar. 7: F Michael Bunting, Ville Koivunen, Vasily Ponomarev, Cruz Lucius, and Conditional 2024 First-Round (Harrison Brunicke – second round, condition not met) and Fifth-Round (condition not met) Draft Picks to PIT; Jake Guentzel and Ty Smith to CAR

   – Mar. 8: 2027 fourth-round draft pick to PIT; D Chad Ruhwedel to NYR
     – Mar. 8: Goaltender Ludovic Waeber and a conditional 2025 seventh-round pick to PIT; G Magnus Hellberg to FLA
     – June 29: Kevin Hayes, 2025 second-round draft pick to PIT; future considerations to STL
     – June 30: Bennett MacArthur to PIT; Lukas Svejkovsky to TBL
     – Aug. 13: 2026 second-round draft pick and 2025 third-round draft pick (OTT) to PIT; 2025 second-round draft pick and 2026 fifth-round draft pick to STL
     – Aug 13: Cody Glass, 2025 third-round draft pick, and 2026 sixth-round draft pick to PIT; Jordan Frasca to NSH
     – Aug. 22: Rutger McGroarty to PIT; Brayden Yager to WPG
     – Nov. 12: 2025 fifth-round draft pick and 2027 third-round draft pick to PIT; Lars Eller to WSH
     – Nov. 25: Philip Tomasino to PIT; 2027 fourth-round draft pick to NSH

Although some of these transactions don’t seem like much, they tell a clear story.

Through these trades, Dubas has managed to net nine draft picks, two young forwards with upside in Glass and Tomasino, four NHL-caliber prospects in Brunicke, McGroarty, Koivunen, and Ponomarev, and a middle-six forward in Bunting. These are all good things.

And, really, the only two valuable pieces he lost in these trades were Eller – a pending unrestricted free agent – and Guentzel, a pending UFA who didn’t even end up signing with the team they traded with.

Dubas largely winning in the trade market ushers in the next point.

To be determined: The rebuild

Dubas reiterated several times over in his season-opening press conference that the Penguins had a chance to “change the story” this season.

It is very clear that Dubas has shifted to rebuild-on-the-fly mode, but this was also a clear message that the hope to compete as soon as possible hasn’t waned. The competitive aspect hasn’t worked out so far this season, and that much is clear. But there is still a whole lot of work to be done.

The Penguins have several tradeable contracts – Marcus Pettersson, Drew O’Connor, Acciari, Puljujarvi, and Nedeljkovic, just to name a few – and some of these contracts are going to be sold off for more draft capital. And, as it stands already, Pittsburgh has 28 picks over the next three drafts, including all three first-round picks, four second-round picks, and seven third-round picks.

That’s already a lot of higher-value picks to work with, and more could be on the way this season. The team will also have $22 million-plus in cap space during the 2025 offseason, which means they can leverage some of those excess picks – without mortgaging their future – to acquire a few young, talented players.

They may also be able to trade one of their older, more desirable contracts with some term – namely Rickard Rakell, Michael Bunting, or Bryan Rust – during the offseason to free up even more cap space.

In addition, those prospects mentioned above – and goaltender Joel Blomqvist, defenseman Owen Pickering, and forward Tristan Broz can be included in this, too – should all be primed to make a real impact at the NHL level next season.

The point here is that – even if the 2024-25 season is a lost one for the Penguins – there may be some legitimate reason to be hopeful for 2025-26. Dubas will have the draft capital, the cap room, and the NHL-ready prospect pool to get creative in the offseason and flip the roster for next season, which should be the real litmus test to determine whether or not his rebuild on-the-fly is a success.

Right now, that part of it is simply too early to call. There are too many moving parts this season, and – given Dubas’s opening comments after training camp – that was probably going to be the case to begin with.

There’s a decent chance that this season was always supposed to be a bridge year for next season. That’s typically how rebuilds on-the-fly operate. If Dubas drafts well and leverages his assets the right way in 2025, the Penguins’ brighter future could be ushered in as soon as next season.

And that’s why it’s far too premature to call Dubas a failure in Pittsburgh. There’s still a chance he could push the right buttons to marry Sidney Crosby’s final few years in Pittsburgh to a young, competitive roster that could make some noise.

So, it’s probably wise to avoid rushing to judgment until the 2025-26 season unfolds – even if the Penguins are unable to turn things around in the now.