Fantasy Basketball Dynasty Weekly: Early Season Risers

I’ve been doing a lot of in-depth analysis of players recently, so we’re going to go a little broader this week. Dynasty rankings shouldn’t be volatile because they’re based on long-term projections. A short stretch of success shouldn’t dramatically impact a player’s dynasty ranking, but there are scenarios where that can happen. We’re over a month into the season, which makes this a great time to evaluate preseason dynasty rankings and provide context as to why my evaluation of these players has changed. There aren’t new rankings on the way, but whenever that happens, here are 10 players that will be ranked higher. These aren’t the only ten players that will move up, but they likely will be the biggest risers up the board. They’re ordered by their previous rank, so that doesn’t mean that this would be the order if they were ranked.

Jalen Johnson (Preseason Dynasty Rank: 26)

I was high on Johnson after last season, but I considered that his breakout year. I knew there was more room to grow, but I didn’t expect him to take another leap like this. He has averaged 19.8 points, 9.9 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.6 threes per game, all of which are career-highs. The turnovers have gone up, which was to be expected with Dejounte Murray gone. Johnson became the team’s secondary playmaker, which has inflated everything. Despite taking 37% of his shots in the restricted area, Johnson has only taken 3.2 free throws per game, which is surprising and frustrating. However, it shows that there is still plenty of room for growth, which is scary.

Jalen Williams Preseason Dynasty Rank: (27)

JDub has been an excellent 9-cat option since his rookie year, but he has ascended into fantasy superstardom this season. Typically, older prospects aren’t as exciting to draft because they may not have the same upside, even if they produce early on. However, Williams has been an exception to that rule. He has averaged career-highs of 22.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.1 threes per game. His usage has gone up, which can partially be attributed to Chet Holmgren’s absence, but his efficiency has only taken a small hit. JDub is the truth and will be a dominant dynasty player for a long, long time.

Tari Eason (Preseason Dynasty Rank: 79)

Eason’s second year in the league was plagued by injuries, which resulted in him sliding down my rankings a bit. However, he has reminded us of how good he can be in limited minutes. Eason has been a top-50 player this year with averages of 11.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.1 steals, 1.0 block and 0.9 threes in just 22.9 minutes per game. The stocks have carried his value, but those numbers are sustainable for one of the best young defenders in the league. Eason and Amen Thompson have formed quite the bench duo, and it’s going to be difficult to keep them out of the starting unit for long.

Walker Kessler (Preseason Dynasty Rank: 98)

Utah’s unwillingness to make Kessler a full-time starter in year two was discouraging and begged the question of how highly they valued him. In year three, they have given him the job, and the fantasy production has been as good as we expected. He has averaged a double-double with three blocks per game while shooting 73.1% from the floor. His impact is dependent on three categories, but there aren’t many players in the league that can provide that level of dominance, especially at 23 years old.

Jalen Suggs (Preseason Dynasty Rank: 100)

This one may not be universally accepted, but I believe Suggs has taken a step forward this year. I think the next few weeks may be a good indication of how he should be valued. Suggs has shot the ball terribly this year after taking a massive shooting leap last season. That should improve, but with both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner sidelined, we’ll get to see what he’s all about until Banchero returns. He’s averaging 16.0 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2.3 threes per game, with everything aside from the assists being career-highs. He has also shot a career-high 92.1% from the free throw line, which should give us confidence that the deep-range shooting will get back to what it was last year.

Cam Thomas (Preseason Dynasty Rank: 113)

Thomas will absolutely move up my rankings, but I’m not sure how high he climbs. He’s been awesome this year, but I still have so many questions. He’s been a streaky shooter, so can he produce like this for a full season? Is he good enough to do this on a playoff team, or is he just a product of a situation that is begging him to provide offense? Will he always be on a lottery team or will he accept a reduced role in order to be on a winning team? He’s been sidelined for the last couple of weeks, but over the course of the year, he has averaged career-highs of 24.7 points, 3.4 assists and 2.9 threes while shooting 46.1% from the floor. Thomas won’t ever be a reliable contributor of defensive numbers, but a 23-year-old that is scoring almost 25 points per game is difficult to ignore.

Dyson Daniels Preseason Dynasty Rank: (133)

I wanted to avoid players that I’ve already done a dynasty breakdown for, but Daniels is impossible to leave off this list. That column was written before his streak of games with at least six steals, and he has also had some incredible offensive performances during that time. His value has mostly come from his steals, but he has been one of the most impactful defenders in the league this year. Barring a drop in production, Daniels will make the first All-Defensive Team of his career. His leap this year after being stuck on the Pelicans’ bench for the first two years of his career should be encouraging for how we value players like Eason, who are in a similar situation.

Gradey Dick (Preseason Dynasty Rank: 163)

Dick has tailed off a bit after a hot start, but he has been impressive in year two. He has averaged 17.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.9 steals and 2.5 threes in 32.5 minutes per game. Most of his value will come from points and 3-pointers, but he has solidified his place in the starting unit for this team. There is room for growth in other areas, but at 21 years old, he can also still improve in the areas that he is already strong in. Dick is the type of player that is at his best when he has talent around him, but Toronto has dealt with so many injuries this year. If we get to see this team at full strength, Dick will thrive.

Payton Pritchard (Preseason Dynasty Rank: 168)

Boston re-signed Pritchard to a team-friendly deal this summer, and it is going to be one of the best bargains in the league for a long time. Pritchard has taken a huge step forward this year without an unsustainable role increase. He has averaged 16.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.0 steal and 3.7 threes in 28.2 minutes per game while shooting 48.7% from the floor. Aside from the assists, those are all career-highs. Situations can change quickly in the NBA, and even though it seems like Boston’s team is locked in for the next few years, that may not be the case. However, Pritchard has provided fifth-round value so far, which is way better than every other season of his career.

Norman Powell (Preseason Dynasty Rank: 245)

He’s on the wrong side of 30, so his dynasty value won’t rise too much, but he has been too good to be ranked this low. Powell has thrived with Kawhi Leonard injured and Paul George now in Philly, which has allowed him to have the best season of his career. He is averaging career-highs of 23.6 points, 2.5 assists and 3.8 threes per game, which have resulted in top-50 production in 9-cat leagues. He is shooting 48.6% from beyond the arc this year, which may regress a bit, but still, I was far too low on Powell heading into this year. Even if he can only do this for a couple more years, that is enough to make him incredibly valuable for win-now teams.