Top five NFL injuries and contingency plans for Wild Card Weekend

Los Angeles Chargers RBs J.K. Dobbins (ankle) and Gus Edwards (ankle) @ Houston Texans
Date/Time: Saturday, 4:30 pm Eastern
The Los Angeles Chargers enter Wild Card Weekend as 2.5-point road favorites which should facilitate a run-heavy game script against a mid-tier Houston Texans run defense that ranks eighth in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (-0.136), 18th in explosive run plays allowed rate (13.4 percent) while ranking and/or tying for 19th in positive EPA allowed rate (37.9 percent) and yards allowed before contact per rushing attempt (1.4). Los Angeles’ top two running backs, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are nursing sprained ankles. Dobbins remained limited through all three Wild Card Weekend practices. Edwards matched Dobbins’ participation on Tuesday and Wednesday before upgrading to Full Participant status on Thursday. Backup running back Hassan Haskins is a dark horse candidate to return RB2 value this week, having replaced rookie running back Kimani Vidal in the No. 3 role and potentially fighting Edwards for the No. 2.

Edwards’ ankle sprain kept him sidelined through Weeks 17 and 18 and details on Dobbins’ ankle sprain remain elusive. Dobbins entered Week 18 play with a clean bill of health and miraculously avoided aggravating his injured reserve-worthy, Week 12 MCL sprain despite experiencing the necessary mechanism to do so on this Week 18 play. He did, of course, appear on this week’s injury report with the ankle injury and MCL sprains notably share the same inward, eversion mechanism that often leads to high-ankle sprains, which could be Dobbins’ current medical malady. Fantasy managers should view both Dobbins and Edwards as having a wide range of outcomes.

Dobbins appears to be healthy enough to play but Edwards’ uninspiring pre-injury form coupled with Haskins’ ascension, in a dual-threat capacity, could result in either a three-player committee or Dobbins leading the way with Haskins operating as his complement.

Haskins led Los Angeles’ Week 16 backfield in receiving, while Dobbins recovered from his MCL sprain, catching 2-of-2 targets for 39 yards and one touchdown. Haskins has since led Los Angeles running backs with a 41.7 percent two-minute drill snap share (five) while ranking second in third- and fourth-and-long snaps (40.0 percent snare, six snaps).

Haskins has averaged 10 rushing attempts and 0.5 targets over the last two weeks and has a chance to continue the trend this week.

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Los Angeles Chargers WRs @ Houston Texans
Date/Time: Saturday, 4:30 pm Eastern
Los Angeles prepares for its Saturday, Wild Card Weekend kickoff with a badly banged-up wide receiver corps. Los Angeles’ X-wide receiver Quentin Johnston began the week as a limited participant after evidently suffering a Week 18 quad injury and was downgraded to being a non-participant after falling ill on Wednesday before returning for a limited session on Thursday. No. 3 wide receiver Joshua Palmer has been ruled out after suffering what is alternatingly being reported as a foot and/or heel injury. Rotational wide receiver Simi Fehoko (elbow) could return from injured reserve this week. He practiced in full on Wednesday and Thursday.

Fortunately, Houston’s secondary is short-staffed. It lost starting slot defensive back/safety Jalen Pitre to a Week 12 pectoral injury and free safety Jimmie Ward to a Week 16 foot injury. Both players are on injured reserve. Were Pitre active, he would be tasked with alternatingly covering slot receiver and de facto No. 1 wide receiver Ladd McConkey, plus tight end Will Dissly. Both Los Angeles players stand to benefit enormously from Houston’s losses and their own teammates’ health further increases their target-earning potential. McConkey can be treated as a high-end WR1 while Dissly deserves both TE1 and flex treatment.

The safety losses should also result in Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert routinely targeting passes downfield.

All active pass catchers warrant single-game DFS consideration. Fehoko, if active, and veteran wide receiver D.J. Chark Jr. will likely receive at least one or two designed downfield opportunities. Among Los Angeles pass catchers with at least five targets earned 10-plus yards downfield, No. 2 tight end Stone Smartt ranks third, on qualifying targets, in both yards per route run (14.00) and yards per reception (23.3) while tying for second in catch rate (60.0 percent).

Baltimore Ravens WR Zay Flowers (knee) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Date/Time: Saturday, 8:00 pm Eastern
Deepak Chona, MD released a concise video breaking down Baltimore Ravens No. 1 wide receiver Zay Flowers’ Week 18 knee injury, expressing concern for a potential LCL sprain, a bone bruise likely underneath or near the LCL and a patellar subluxation which would involve one or more connective tissue sprains. Chona’s thoughts were in part echoed by DPT Jeff Mueller. The notoriously mum and obfuscatory Ravens have yet to officially reveal details though sources tell NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport that Flowers indeed suffered a knee sprain. The injured connective tissue was not specified. Flowers was ruled out on Thursday.

Flowers exited Week 18 early in the second quarter prompting Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken to funnel six first-read targets apiece to No. 2 wide receiver Rashod Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews in quarters two-to-four.

Bateman’s Week 18 pre-snap alignment usage also varied with Flowers sidelined. Bateman closed the day with an 80.0 percent perimeter rate and a 20.0 percent slot rate, marking just the second time all year that his slot rate surpassed 12.1 percent. Continued slot deployment gives Bateman breaks from facing Pittsburgh’s talented perimeter cornerbacks, Joey Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson.

Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin demoted stud rookie slot cornerback Beanie Bishop Jr. in favor of washed-up veteran, cornerback Cameron Sutton, who returned from suspension in Week 10. Among 30 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 25 slot-coverage snaps in Week 17 and 18, Sutton ranks 14th in yards allowed per coverage snap (0.98) and 28th in open-target rate (90.9 percent).

Baltimore relies on Flowers to create yardage post-catch. Flowers ranks third among seven Baltimore pass catchers with at least 25 targets in yards after the catch per reception (6.3). Running backs Derrick Henry (11.5) and Justice Hill (10.4) respectively rank first and second while No. 2 tight end Isaiah Likely (6.2) ties for the No. 4 spot. All three could benefit from Flowers’ absence. Hill (19.7 percent) boasts the best target-earning ability of the bunch.

Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson (ACL) @ Philadelphia Eagles 
Date/Time: Sunday, 4:30 pm
The Green Bay Packers must face an elite Philadelphia Eagles defense one week after losing star field-stretching wide receiver Christian Watson to a torn ACL. Philadelphia closed the regular season ranking 14th among NFL teams in explosive run plays allowed rate (12.0 percent), eighth in quarterback pressure rate (36.4 percent), fourth in EPA allowed per run play (-0.169) and first in quarterback pressure rate (56.6 percent), EPA allowed per pass play (-0.091) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (9.9 percent). Green Bay’s offense must find ways to generate explosive gains sans Watson.

Ideally, Green Bay will likely try to jump out to an early lead with daring play designs before leaning heavily on running back Josh Jacobs

Green Bay X-wide receiver Romeo Doubs slightly edges out fill-in starter, wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks as the more oft-used field-stretching starter, averaging a 12.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT) to Wicks’ 12.0 and a 21.4 percent deep-target rate to Wicks’ 20.3 percent. Doubs should see increased opportunity assuming he is fit to play following his Week 18 absence (illness). Doubs is practicing in full this week. One-trick pony, wide receiver Bo Melton (37.5 percent deep-target rate) warrants DFS flex consideration.

Green Bay tight end Tucker Kraft (5.1-yard aDot) and slot receiver Jayden Reed (8.6-yard aDot) are used downfield less frequently but fare well when given opportunities to do so. Among Green Bay pass catchers with at least 10 targets thrown 10-plus yards downfield, Kraft ranks first in both yards per reception (33.8) and YPRR on qualifying targets (27.00) while Reed respectively ranks second (32.4) and third (23.32). Kraft likewise leads the qualifying sample in missed tackles forced (three) and yards after the catch per reception (15.4), deserving both TE1 and flex consideration.

Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown (knee) vs. Green Bay Packers
Date/Time: Sunday, 4:30 pm
ESPN’s Tim McManus has meticulously tracked Philadelphia Eagles No. 1 wide receiver A.J. Brown’s curious practice participation this week. Brown ostensibly suffered a knee injury in Week 16 practice though the issue could be linked to the knee injuries he dealt with in 2020 that required bilateral clean-up procedures, detailed here by DPT Jeff Mueller.

McManus notes, “Brown was listed on Wednesday’s practice report as limited with a knee/rest designation. Brown was spotted exiting that practice with a staffer less than 10 minutes into the session.” A source tells McManus that Brown did not return to practice that day and that his exit was pre-planned. The team’s excuse for Brown’s abrupt shepherding away should not be accepted uncritically. Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni seemingly let slip that quarterback Jalen Hurts was nursing an ankle injury earlier this year despite receiving a “rest” designation on the team-released injury report.

Brown was downgraded to being a non-participant in Thursday’s practice, which was followed by a report from The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jeff McLane, who echoes McManus’ reporting, saying that the Eagles expect Brown to play and are apparently “limiting his workload so he’s as close to 100 percent as possible by Sunday.”

It is entirely possible that Brown suits up and plays effectively on Sunday but fantasy managers should prepare to exploit his potential absence or limitations.

Aside from Brown (95 targets), Philadelphia funnels targets to its remaining best players; No. 2 wide receiver DeVonta Smith (84 targets), tight end Dallas Goedert (51 targets) and running back Saquon Barkley (39 targets). Smith will be given ample opportunities to test Green Bay slot defensive back/safety Javon Bullard’s injured ankle. Bullard remains limited through two Wild Card Weekend practices. He missed Weeks 15 and 16 before returning in Week 17 and has allowed a 100.0 percent catch rate on nine targets thrown into his primary coverage since.

Goedert and Barkley’s pass-catching upside should not be discounted. Green Bay linebackers totaled the fifth-most missed tackles in coverage among NFL teams (23) this season.