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Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week in the divisional round of the playoffs. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Farmer had a regular-season winning percentage of .695 and .533 against the spread. Record for the wild-card round of the playoffs was 4-2 (.667) and, using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, 3-3 (.500) against the spread. Times Pacific. TV channels are Los Angeles local.
AFC: No. 4 Houston at No. 1 Kansas City
Saturday, 1:30 p.m. TV: Channel 7 (ABC), ESPN, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes
Line: Chiefs by 8½. Over/Under: 41½.
How the Texans can win: As with the Rams, they’re an indoor team playing in the cold and on house money, so they can embrace some risk. The Chiefs have had to reshuffle their offensive line, including at left tackle, so that could be a vulnerability. That’s caused the run game to fade and forced Patrick Mahomes to lean more into a nickel-and-dime approach. Typically, Steve Spagnuolo’s defenses don’t give up big plays, but the Chiefs haven’t been great about that this season.
How the Chiefs can win: Give Andy Reid extra time to plot a strategy, and his teams are scary. The Chiefs know just what to do in January games — check their trophy case. Defensively, they need to put the clamps on receiver Nico Collins, more of a threat now that the Texans have lost Tank Dell (injured in the Week 16 game against Kansas City). Mahomes is the key, of course, and there’s nobody better when it comes to getting out of the pocket and creating big plays with his arm and legs.
Pick: The Chiefs haven’t been an offensive powerhouse this season, but they’re great at doing what they need to at the right time. It’s going to be cold. It’s going to be loud. Reid is going to have his team ready, and Mahomes is going to do what he needs to do to win. Chiefs 27, Texans 20
NFC: No. 6 Washington at No. 1 Detroit
Saturday, 5 p.m. TV: Channel 11 (Fox), Fox Deportes
Line: Lions by 9½. Over/Under: 55½.
How the Commanders can win: It’s all about rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, and a key will be getting star receiver Terry McLaurin involved. This is McLaurin’s 10th starting quarterback since coming into the league in 2019, and the cool-headed Daniels is a gem. The Commanders have won their last five games on the last play from scrimmage. Daniels doesn’t feel pressure; he’s laughing in the huddle in do-or-die moments. The big challenge will be keeping up with a Detroit offense that can score in so many ways. The Lions have had to cobble it together on defense and are missing five starters (from the opener) on that side of the ball.
How the Lions can win: Do what they do. They’re getting David Montgomery back to mix in with phenomenal tailback Jahmyr Gibbs. Jared Goff is super accurate and has a low-blood-pressure calm, and he knows just when to get the ball to Amon-Ra St. Brown, tight end Sam LaPorta and the rest. The Lions feel as if they’re a team of destiny, and they act like it. There is no place more electric in the playoffs than Ford Field. They aren’t going to let the moment get too big for them.
Pick: The Lions have been building up to this point, and they’re ready to make a serious run at a Lombardi Trophy. There’s so much piled on the shoulders of a rookie quarterback for the Commanders. It would be a major upset for Washington to walk away with a win. Lions 35, Commanders 24
NFC: No. 4 Rams at No. 2 Philadelphia
Sunday, noon. TV: Channel 4 (NBC), Peacock
Line: Eagles by 6½. Over/Under: 44½.
How the Rams can win: They are coming off an incredibly emotional win and now have to travel across the country on a short week to face a rock-solid team in the cold. A shock-the-world result isn’t out of the question, but watch for Sean McVay to pull out all the stops with trick plays, and maybe some different, riskier stuff on fourth down and even special teams. If there’s any time to roll the dice, it’s now.
How the Eagles can win: Their offensive and defensive lines are far better than Minnesota’s so don’t expect the Rams to harass Jalen Hurts the way they did Sam Darnold, and the heat will be turned up on Matthew Stafford. An encore performance by Saquon Barkley? The Rams probably aren’t going to get burned for 302 all-purpose yards from him again, but he’s a nightmare.
Pick: With teams riding a huge wave of emotion, anything can happen. So not counting out the Rams, but Philadelphia just has so many ways to beat you, and that Eagles defense is smothering. McVay’s spotlight swings around, so this could be a big Cooper Kupp game. Eagles 28, Rams 23
AFC: No. 3 Baltimore at No. 2 Buffalo
Sunday, 3:30 p.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS), Paramount+
Line: Ravens by 1½. Over/Under: 51½.
How the Ravens can win: Baltimore has embraced being a run-heavy team more than worrying about not running Derrick Henry too much and being balanced on offense, proving that Lamar Jackson can win everything with his arm. The Ravens aren’t one-dimensional but they know who they are, and they need to keep thinking run first. Defensively, they’ve gotten a little better at limiting the explosive plays, but that problem still pops up from time to time. Teams are throwing at corner Brandon Stephens a lot, so be hyper-aware of that.
How the Bills can win: The Bills were blown out by Baltimore earlier this season, and Buffalo was missing three key defenders, so it’s unlikely this game will be an encore of that. The Bills are super balanced. Josh Allen makes them go, of course, but running back James Cook has been terrific. They’re able to establish the run, and when defenses sell out to stop that, Allen spreads the ball around so effectively. Eight players had receptions last week. They don’t have a No. 1 receiver, but that’s a strength. They can go anywhere with the ball at any time.
Pick: This one could go either way. Both teams are loaded with players with tons of postseason experience. Both can handle the cold. It just feels as if Baltimore’s running game is going to dictate the tempo, and the defense will do enough to keep Allen at bay. Comes down to a last-second field goal. Ravens 30, Bills 28
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