National championship 2025: Five keys to Ohio State beating Notre Dame, winning College Football Playoff title

The best part of coming up with any kind of “keys to the game” is that there’s only one real key to a game: score more points than the other team. If you do that, nothing else matters en route to victory. So let me start by saying that the biggest key for 8-seed Ohio State in its quest to defeat 7-seed Notre Dame and win the College Football Playoff National Championship is to score more points than the Fighting Irish.

OK, so now that we have that out of the way, how can Ohio State go about accomplishing that mission? I’m tempted to write “score touchdowns” just to give my editors an aneurysm, and while the thought amuses me, I also enjoy pretending to know what I’m talking about, 

So, if you’ll allow me to get a bit long-winded, here are five keys to victory for the Buckeyes over the Fighting Irish on Monday night in Atlanta. 

1. Run the dang ol’ football

On the whole, Ohio State has a fantastic offense. It ranks fifth nationally in points per possession (3.06), 13th in success rate (47.5%) and fifth in EPA per snap (0.22). As good as it is overall, if there is a weakness, it’s the run game. I use the term weakness lightly because the Buckeyes still rank 38th in EPA per rush (0.07) and 14th in explosive rush rate (13.2%), but they’re only 65th in rushing success rate (43.1%). Basically, they’re effective overall but can be a bit “stop and start” in the run game.

Considering the two-headed monster of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, you’re sometimes left with the feeling that they’re good but should probably be better. Toss in Will Howard’s effectiveness as a runner, and it’s even more pronounced. A lot of the overall ineffectiveness is due to an offensive line that’s suffered multiple injuries and has been forced to move guys around all season. The good news is that the line has finally found a rhythm in the postseason, and while it struggled a bit last week, every offensive line struggles against the Texas Longhorns. There be monsters along that defensive front!

There be some in Notre Dame’s as well, but one of the biggest monsters will be watching from the sideline. Notre Dame’s Rylie Mills was lost for the season against Indiana in the first round, and he was Notre Dame’s primary disruptor on the interior. It’s an area the Buckeyes should look to exploit as much as possible. Both because it can be successful doing so, and it can help open up something else, the Buckeyes need to take advantage.

Jeremiah Smith only caught one pass for 3 yards last week. I know you’ve heard about this because after catching 13 passes for 290 yards and four touchdowns in the first two playoff games, everybody was like, “Oh my god, is Jeremiah Smith the greatest player of all time!? Can anybody stop him!?”

Well, yes, and Texas did. However, there was more to it than Texas defensive back and Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron simply shutting Smith down. While Barron did a fantastic job, it was truly a team effort by the Longhorns.

Schematically, Texas is a heavy zone team, and the case for most of the season is Emeka Egbuka is Ohio State’s zone receiver, while Smith, who is uber-talented but also still young and learning, is the guy who can make any poor bastard playing man coverage on him look like a toddler. So part of Smith’s lack of production was matchup-based, and part of it was also that Ohio State couldn’t run the ball against Texas.

The lack of a run game allowed Texas to keep doing what it wanted to against the pass.

How might things be different this week? Well, Texas plays a lot of zone. Notre Dame doesn’t. In fact, according to TruMedia, Notre Dame is in man coverage on 57.6% of opponent dropbacks. That’s the second-highest rate in the country behind only Purdue (63%). Of course, the big difference between Notre Dame and Purdue is that Notre Dame actually has defensive backs who can cover. Purdue … well, good luck to incoming coach Barry Odom!

Anyway, I doubt Notre Dame is going to change what it is and how it plays in the title game simply because it’s afraid of Smith. After all, the Irish have a pretty incredible freshman themselves in Leonard Moore. You’ve likely heard about how Penn State didn’t have a single reception by a wide receiver last week, and Notre Dame’s secondary had quite a bit to do with that! It’s good!

That said, Penn State doesn’t have Jeremiah Smith, nor does it have Emeka Egbuka or Carnell Tate, for that matter (it no longer has Harrison Wallace or Omari Evans, either, as both are in the portal). The Buckeyes have the best receiving corps in the country, and the player I consider the best receiver is Smith. If Notre Dame is going to play man, Ohio State needs to punish them when their guys win. The best avenue to do that is through Jeremiah Smith.

3. Take care of the football

Notre Dame fans hate me for it, but I’ve referred to the Irish as “Blue and Gold Iowa” this season for their style of play. I recently had an interaction with a Notre Dame fan who said he understood the sentiment but said it would probably play better with the base if I changed it to “Blue Chip Iowa.”

He’s right, so Notre Dame is Blue Chip Iowa. What I mean by that is they’re a bit one-dimensional on offense, relying on explosive runs while they suffocate you defensively. They also force turnovers and turn them into points.

Seriously, between defensive touchdowns and special teams returns, Notre Dame has scored 48 points this season. That’s the fourth-most in the country. By comparison, Ohio State has scored 35, which ranks 15th.

But one of my favorite stats that does not get nearly enough love is points off turnover margin. You hear plenty about turnover margin, but forcing turnovers isn’t nearly as important as turning them into points. During the season, Notre Dame has a points off turnover margin of +6.67 points per game, the best mark in the country. The Irish force turnovers and then score.

On the season, Ohio State has a turnover rate on offense of 7.9%, which ranks 27th nationally, but we’ve seen Will Howard struggle with turnovers in Ohio State’s biggest games. He’s thrown 10 interceptions during the season, and six of them have come in the CFP and games against Michigan, Indiana, and Penn State.

4. Get Notre Dame in third-and-long situations

That’s right, folks. We’re reinventing the wheel here by telling you that Ohio State needs to run the ball, take care of the football and win the third-down battle. They’re cliches for a reason!

If I can return to the “Blue Chip Iowa” label, Notre Dame is not an offense that wants to have Riley Leonard dropping back to pass. The Irish want to stay on or ahead of schedule so they can lean on you with their two excellent running backs and Leonard as a battering ram. When they can’t, they struggle.

The Irish do a decent job of avoiding third-and-long (7 yards or more) — 46.82% of their third downs qualify (54th nationally) — but they’re damn near helpless when they end up in that situation. They convert only 16% of them, which ranks 128th nationally ahead of only schools like Southern Miss, Charlotte, Wisconsin, Temple, Central Michigan and Kent State. Not exactly the kind of company a team in the freaking national title game should be keeping.

Getting Notre Dame in third-and-long would tip the scales in Ohio State’s direction immensely and help ensure the Buckeyes defense gets off the field.

5. Be yourselves

Lou Holtz made a tactical error this week. The moment the title game matchup was decided, Holtz should’ve been on every radio and television show that would have him talking about how soft Ryan Day is and how he’s not man enough to run the ball against Notre Dame, and that he’s never going to beat Michigan, he was born on third base, etc. Just completely unload on him and get him rattled in hopes that Day would do something stupid and try to prove how tough he is the same way he tried to prove it against Michigan.

Let’s get one thing clear: Ohio State isn’t soft. If you think it is, feel free to try and block Jack Sawyer, take a hit from Lathan Ransom or try to tackle Judkins. Then come back and tell me how soft you found this team to be.

Ohio State’s only problem this season has been itself. That Michigan gameplan was something that will be studied by psychologists for years to come and was a prime example of beating yourself by trying to prove something you didn’t have to prove.

The Buckeyes are favored in this game for a reason. They’re an incredible team that’s extremely well-balanced. It doesn’t have to try to be something it isn’t to win. It doesn’t have to run the ball down Notre Dame’s throat. It simply needs to run the ball to keep Notre Dame’s defense honest and give its incredibly threatening passing attack even more time to get guys open for big plays.

Don’t try to prove a point. Just do what you do. More often than not, being yourself will be enough to win this game and claim a national title.