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The first 12-team College Football Playoff reaches its conclusion with Monday’s National Championship Game between the No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish and No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes. Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET from the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, as the city becomes the first to host two CFP National Title Games. These programs last met in Sep. 2023, in which the Buckeyes won on the road, and Ohio State sports a 6-2 all-time record versus the Irish. The Buckeyes are 8.5-point favorites in the latest college football odds, with the over/under at 46.5.
Notre Dame enters the 2025 CFP Title Game on a 13-game winning streak, the longest active in FBS, and it has won nine straight games versus AP-ranked teams. The Fighting Irish have already knocked off two Big Ten teams in the playoff, defeating Indiana and Penn State, with a romp over Georgia in between. Head coach Marcus Freeman, who is a former Ohio State linebacker, leads a squad with balance on both sides of the ball, as the Irish rank among the top three teams in the nation in both scoring offense and scoring defense.
As for Ohio State, after a stunning defeat to rival Michigan, it has then taken out revenge on its CFP opponents. OSU knocked off a pair of SEC heavyweights in Tennessee and Texas during its playoff run, with a victory over No. 1 Oregon sandwiched in between. The Buckeyes have the best defense in the land, ranking first in points allowed, yards allowed and redzone defense. They also are ones who play their best against the best, as the four wins by Ryan Day’s squad over AP top-5 teams this year are tied for the most by any team all-time.
Ohio State is seeking its ninth national championship and its first since winning the inaugural College Football Playoff in the 2014-15 season. Notre Dame is also angling for its ninth national title, though it’s been a bit longer since the Irish last sat atop the college football world. The school’s last championship came in 1988, when it was crowned champion via polls as there was no national championship game.
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Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
- Kickoff time Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Point spread Ohio State -8.5
- Money lines Ohio State -365, Notre Dame +286
- Total 46.5
Picks and more to know
Points may be difficult to put on the board in this matchup, as Ohio State has given up an FBS-low 12.2 per game this season while Notre Dame ranks second in the nation with an average of 14.3 allowed. The Buckeyes also are first in the country in total defense (251.1 yards allowed) and against the pass (161.1), and they are third in both sacks (51) and rushing defense (89.9 yards allowed). The Fighting Irish rank second in passing defense (165.3 yards allowed), fifth in interceptions (19) and ninth in total defense (298.3 yards allowed).
Ohio State’s pass rush is led by JT Tuimoloau, who is tied for seventh in the nation with 11.5 sacks. The senior defensive end has racked up 5.5 sacks in the CFP, notching two in each of the Buckeyes’ first two games before recording 1.5 against Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Teammate Jack Sawyer has posted 4.5 of his nine sacks this year during the team’s playoff run and returned a fumble 83 yards for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter to seal the victory over the Longhorns.
Offensively, Ohio State is 12th in the country with an average of 35.8 points scored this season. Will Howard has been one of the top quarterbacks in FBS, ranking eighth with 3,779 passing yards and fifth with 33 TD tosses. The senior eclipsed the 300-yard mark in each of the Buckeyes’ first two playoff games before throwing for 289 against Texas. He’s tossed six touchdowns this postseason as well.
Howard’s top two targets are freshman Jeremiah Smith (71 receptions, 1,227 yards, 14 TDs) and senior Emeka Egbuka (75, 947, 10). Smith has been especially effective during the CFP, racking up six catches for 103 yards and two touchdowns against Tennessee while hauling in seven passes for 187 yards and a pair of scores versus Oregon. On the ground, senior TreVeyon Henderson and junior Quinshon Judkins both have rushed for two TDs in two different playoff games, while the former also had a 75-yard scoring reception in the Buckeyes’ semifinal win.
Riley Leonard has been the key to Notre Dame’s offense in the CFP Playoff. The senior quarterback threw for one touchdown and ran for another against Indiana in the first round before tossing a TD pass and leading the team in rushing with 80 yards in the quarterfinal triumph over Georgia. Leonard, who is tied for 15th in the nation with 16 scores on the ground, had both a touchdown pass and run versus Penn State in the semifinals.
Ohio State’s defense also will need to pay attention to Jeremiyah Love, who is 12th in the country with 17 rushing TDs. The sophomore running back has gained 1,122 yards this season and posted his fifth 100-yard performance in the first-round victory against the Hoosiers, running for 108 yards and a touchdown. Love rushed for another score in the semifinal triumph over the Nittany Lions.
The SportsLine Projection Model says one team covers in well over 50% of simulations in this matchup, while SportsLine expert Eric Cohen (77-57 on college football picks this season) also has a pick on the spread.
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