Trotter’s 10 Trends: Why Nate Oats benched Alabama star Mark Sears, VCU’s surging defense and more takeaways

Let’s get right into this week’s edition of Ten Trends, including one of the biggest stories from Saturday’s 149-game slate.

1. Why Nate Oats benched Mark Sears

Oats started a bit of a firestorm when he chose to bench Sears, Alabama’s All-American guard, for the entire second half of Saturday’s sweaty 80-73 win over lowly LSU.

“We just played the guys we thought gave us the best chance to win in the second half,” Oats said. “We subbed in two guys in the starting lineup — kind of looked at some leverage numbers, plus/minus numbers, kind of challenged a couple guys.”

As usual, the film rarely lies. 

Offensively, Sears could not get it going. He missed all five shots and turned it over a few times, but his defense left way more to be desired. Sears returned to Alabama for his fifth and final year of eligibility and vowed to show much-improved bite defensively. There have been stretches when Sears has played with his hair on fire defensively. 

Saturday was not one of those times.

Sears was getting drilled on screens over and over again before the first media timeout which was opening up creases for LSU to puncture Alabama’s defense. But one sequence late in the first half looked like the boiling point, and Oats’ body language on the sideline is impossible to ignore.

Sears is guarding a non-shooter (LSU’s Dji Bailey has made just 27 career 3s in his career), but he sticks in no-man’s land and is late on a weak-side tag which allows LSU to get an easy-peasy dunk. On the ensuing offensive possession, Sears gets swallowed up on a drive, does not get back on defense in time because he took a shot and the Tigers convert on an open 3-pointer.

In 23 seconds, Alabama’s 38-35 lead turned into a 40-35 hole.

As you’d expect from a veteran, Sears responded with a big-time effort in Monday’s practice, per Oats. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if the All-American guard rises to the occasion Wednesday against a tough Mississippi State club and this becomes a complete nothing-burger.

But it’s a sobering reminder that at Alabama, no minutes are guaranteed. Not even for someone who was regarded as maybe college basketball’s best guard in the preseason.

Sensational freshmen is a main theme of college basketball’s fabulous 2024-25 campaign, and it’s trickled down to Conference USA. Wooley has been a major addition for the Owls, and he’s garnering real attention from evaluators across the country. The 6-foot-5, 180-pound point guard is averaging 18.1 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.2 assists while shooting over 37% from downtown and 61% at the rim. Only five freshmen are scoring more than Wooley.

It helps to be one of the most efficient pick-and-roll scorers in college basketball this season, and the lefty is deadly off the bounce with a nasty stepback jumper.

“Dude is legit; he’s a major player,” Liberty coach Ritchie McKay told reporters Tuesday. “We have no respect to his class because he’s one of the best players in the league.”

Kennesaw State will tangle with McKay’s Flames on Thursday (8 p.m. on CBS Sports Network and streaming on CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App).

3. Iowa’s defense sinks to new lows

After Monday’s 82-65 loss to Ohio State, Iowa dropped to 6-7 against top-100 teams this season. Its defense rates dead last in Big Ten play and checks in outside the top-200 nationally in those 13 contests.

There is no semblance of defensive bite whenever sophomore big man Owen Freeman is not on the floor. Top-100 teams are shooting over 70% at the rim on high volume when Freeman sits, per hoop-explorer. 

The unfortunate reality is that it could be even worse. Opponents are shooting just 30% on unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s against Iowa. That’s well below the median mark of 37% for college basketball teams on that type of 3-pointer this season. 

Night after night, the best shooters on the opposing scouting report are getting so many clean looks. Ohio State’s John Mobley Jr. was regarded as one of the elite shooters in his recruiting class. He shot five unguarded catch-and-shoot treys last night. Iowa was fortunate that he converted just one of ’em. Penn State’s Zach Hicks, a career 37% shooter, had nine attempts. Minnesota’s Mike Mitchell, a career 40% sniper, had 10 attempts against Iowa.

Iowa is down to a 2% chance of earning an at-large bid, per Bart Torvik. Those offseason claims that an improved defense was on tap have not materialized in the slightest.

4. VCU’s defense taking away every single thing

To no one’s surprise, Tennessee and Houston rank first and third nationally in halfcourt defense. Those units are impenetrable. Maybe a little surprisingly, VCU is up to No. 2 in halfcourt defense, allowing a minute 0.748 points per possession. 

Ryan Odom has VCU flying around taking away just about everything. VCU forces turnovers at a 22.2% rate. That ranks 15th-best nationally. It has one of the best rim defenses in the country, allowing opponents to shoot just 49% on layups or dunks. It’s suffocating teams on the perimeter and allowing very few catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. 

VCU is taking away just about everything. When it doesn’t force a turnover, it’s coaxing teams to shoot tough, contested jumpers.

This mix of an outstanding defensive philosophy and terrific personnel is almost flawless. Joe Bamisile, Max Shulga and Zeb Jackson are massive lead guards. Jack Clark is a 6-foot-10 wing stopper who has been outstanding defensively at every stop. Christian Fermin and Luke Bamgboye are ferocious rim protectors.

Everything about this feels sustainable and very scary. 

VCU travels to face Josh Schertz and Saint Louis on Tuesday (8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network and streaming on CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App) before hosting Richmond on Saturday in another nationally-televised A-10 clash (4 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network and streaming on CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App).

5. Salute to Mark Byington, the general manager

Byington is giving off some early T.J. Otzelberger vibes with his sharp roster-construction gameplans. Vanderbilt is 16-4 and 4-3 in the SEC after Saturday’s five-point win over then-No. 9 Kentucky.

In hindsight, Byington’s money moves in the offseason have looked tremendous.

Putting a jumbo creator guard who can really guard like AJ Hoggard with an undersized bucket-getter like Jason Edwards was sharp.

Pairing an electric shooting wing like Tyler Nickel with a defense-first wing like Chris Manon makes a ton of sense.

Pairing Devin McGlockton with Jaylen Carey, two exceptional per-minute rebounders last year, has helped Vanderbilt survive on the glass in the souped-up SEC.

There’s little overlap on this roster. Maybe the rim defense holds Vanderbilt back from truly competing at the top of the pecking order, but the ‘Dores look every bit the part of a NCAA Tournament club and Byington, the general manager, is aging just as brilliantly as Byington, the head coach.

6. Morez Johnson: Illinois’ defensive wrecking ball

Johnson got one of his “welcome to the Big Ten” moments in Illinois’ deflating, 91-70, home loss to Maryland early last week. The Terps’ two-big lineup of JuJu Reese and Derik Queen got whatever it wanted in the paint, and the Illinois freshman was riddled with foul trouble from the start. His usual frontcourt mate, Tomislav Ivisic, was sidelined with a bout of mono and Johnson couldn’t hold up alone.

He responded with one of his best defensive outings of the season in Illinois’ 83-74 win over Northwestern. Johnson was flying all over the floor defensively and helped limit Nick Martinelli to a 7-for-19 showing. Martinelli, who is one of the Big Ten’s best isolation scorers, also did not shoot a single free throw for just the third time all year.

Johnson was wreaking havoc.

So far this season, Illinois’ defense has been 10 points per 100 possessions better against top-100 teams with Johnson on the floor, per hoop-explorer. 

Even when Ivisic returns, Johnson is making a strong case to be Illinois’ 4-man stopper. His length, strength and activity can be a real problem for the bucket-getting forwards who have given Illinois trouble at times this year.

Sunday will offer another stiff test when Devin Royal and Ohio State waltz into Champaign (1 p.m. ET on CBS and streaming on CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App and Paramount+ with Showtime). 

7. High-flyin’ Badgers

After Sunday’s 83-55 trouncing of Nebraska, Wisconsin is up to No. 8 nationally in offensive efficiency. Former Badgers superstar Kirk Penney returned to Madison to be the special assistant to head coach Greg Gard ahead of the 2023-24 season, and his fingertips are all over this new-and-improved Badgers offense.

Wisconsin is all-in on shot quality. All. In. Just 17.5 percent of Wisconsin’s attempts come from the midrange, per hoop-explorer. That’s shaping up to be the lowest mark in school history.

All nine guys in Wisconsin’s rotation have the green light to fire from downtown, and it keeps the paint clean for John Tonje or John Blackwell to put their defenders in the stanchion with bully-ball drives. 

It’s not hyperbole to put Gard and Nate Oats in the same sentence. What a world. 

8. Data diving, Part I: The good

Who doesn’t love to sort the data on Bart Torvik? One exercise that is illuminating is digging into the numbers from games against top-100 competition.

Let’s start with the good:

• Houston is the only team with a top-10 offense and defense against top-100 teams. The Cougars rank seventh in offense and fourth in defense. They’re really, really good.
• Missouri is 6-4 against top-100 teams and rates seventh nationally. These Tigers are for real. They have so much lineup versatility, loads of size and skill and the pieces just fit together way better. 
• New Mexico is 7-2 against top-100 teams and 14th nationally in net rating. Donovan Dent headlines a very dangerous club.
• Wake Forest’s defense is a top-10 unit in nine games against top-100 teams. That’s tremendous.

9. Data diving, Part II: The bad

• Wake Forest is 242nd nationally in offensive efficiency against top-100 clubs. That is not so tremendous.
• Michigan State’s defense ranks 17th nationally overall but it dips to 40th nationally against top-100 teams. Michigan State will not play a team outside the top-100 for the rest of the year. 
• Kansas’ offense is 81st nationally in 12 games against top-100 teams. It doesn’t get to the foul line and doesn’t make treys. That’s a bad combination, but maybe Flory Bidunga and Rylan Griffen can be the problem-solvers for both of those areas.
• Texas A&M’s offense overwhelms the bad teams and struggles mightily (78th nationally) against top-100 teams.
• The Georgia optimism has fallen back to earth a little bit. The Dawgs’ offense has been stuck in the mud against top-100 teams and rates outside the top 140 nationally. 
• Baylor is hovering around the top 25 on kenpom.com thanks to some metric-boosting non-conference wallops, but it is just No. 49 nationally against top-100 teams. That rates eighth in the Big 12 behind teams like UCF and BYU.
• North Carolina is 5-8 against top-100 teams and its offense is 84th nationally in efficiency. 
• The offense was supposed to carry Xavier but it’s 121st in efficiency in 13 games against top-100 teams.
• Duquesne has more top-100 wins (3) than both Arkansas and Kansas State (2).
• Indiana’s defense is 166th against top-100 teams.

10. Data diving, Part III: The confusing

• Auburn has a mind-boggling 134.1 offensive efficiency mark against top-100 teams. This isn’t some low-major, stat-inflating destroyer but that’s simply historic stuff.
• Notre Dame (who is 1-7 against top-100 teams) is 62nd nationally. West Virginia (who is 5-6 against top-100 teams) is 65th. Huh?
• Villanova’s defense sits outside the top-200 nationally against top-100 teams who are bombing away from downtown against the Wildcats basically every night.
• UNC is No. 52 and Pitt is No. 53 against top-100 clubs. They play eachother Tuesday. It’s perfect.