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The Blue Jays have been mentioned as a player for every big-time free agent who has hit the market over the last couple of years, but have mostly come up short in their pursuits.
They were able to land Anthony Santander earlier in January, and now they have hooked a future Hall of Famer for their pitching staff.
Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Scherzer will receive $15.5 million for signing with the Blue Jays, with Passan noting that Toronto has been interested in adding Scherzer for “weeks.”
Here’s a look at what Scherzer can bring to the Blue Jays, and what — if any — potential fantasy value is there for the 2025 campaign.
What has Scherzer done over the last couple of seasons?
It goes without saying, but it’ll be said anyway: Scherzer is one of the best right-handed pitchers in the history of the sport. He’s won three Cy Young Awards while finishing in the top five of voting an incredible seven consecutive seasons between 2013-2019. He was just so-so in the truncated 2020 season, but was third again in Cy Young voting while being particularly impressive after a trade from the Nationals to the Dodgers.
Since the 2022 season, Scherzer has been solid, just not on the mound nearly as often. In 59 starts with the Mets and Rangers he’s forged a 3.16 ERA, a 10.2 K/9, and 1.03 WHIP over 341 1/3 innings. He was limited to just nine starts in 2024 while recovering from arm fatigue and nerve issues with Texas and finished with a 3.95 ERA and 40/10 K/BB across 43 1/3 innings.
What does Scherzer still do well to keep him fantasy relevant?
Scherzer relies more on deception than ever — more on that in a bit — and he routinely gets hitters to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. He didn’t qualify because of his lack of innings, but his 36.4 percent generated chase rate would have ranked with the very best in baseball. It also helped him generate whiffs on 29.2 percent of his swings against and a hard-hit percentage of just 34.9; again, numbers that would have ranked very highly if he had pitched enough innings to qualify.
Scherzer’s slider remains one of the best in the game, and hitters swung-and-missed at that pitch 43.8 percent of the time while hitting a paltry .214 against it. Add in competent — if no longer dominant — pitches in his change, curve and cutter and Scherzer still has the arsenal to be an excellent starting option. When you add in the fact that he pounds the strike zone as seen in just a 5.8 percent walk rate in 2024, you have reason for optimism.
Outside of health, what are the concerns with Scherzer going forward?
You can’t just skip past the health stuff with Scherzer, even if it’s obvious. This is a hurler that has not reached 160 innings over his last three seasons, and hasn’t made 30 starts since 2021. There’s a very good chance that he’s going to have to miss time via injury, because 1. He’s a pitcher and 2. He’s a pitcher that turns 41-years-old in July.
And while the secondary pitchers are still very good, the fastball leaves a bit to be desired at this stage of his career. That’s not a surprise for a hurler who has thrown 2,878 innings in his career and has been playing since 2008, but it doesn’t make it any less true. Last year, hitters slugged .492 against the pitch with a very high weighted on-base average of .353. In a much larger sample in 2023, batters slugged .458 against the offering with a wOBA of .340. Without attempting to be ageist, it’s very hard to imagine these numbers are going to get better in 2025. That’s not usually how this works, anyway.
Where does Scherzer fit in the Toronto rotation?
Scherzer won’t be the ace of the Blue Jays to open the year; that’ll be Kevin Gausman. He also may not open the year as the second starter after Jose Berrios gave Toronto 192 (mostly) quality innings, and Toronto also has Chris Bassitt and Bowden Francis in the rotation. It seems likely that Scherzer will open the year as the third starter for the Blue Jays, but don’t be surprised if they opt to keep him fresh and maybe add an extra day of rest between starts a time or two. On paper, it’s a solid rotation, but maybe one that offers a little more risk than reward.
Where should Scherzer be drafted in 2025?
It’s difficult to recommend drafting a pitcher who has had the health concerns of Scherzer terribly high, especially when you consider how few starting pitchers are relevant at his age.
That being said, I do think there’s an opportunity for him to be a fantasy-relevant arm in 2025. That slider hasn’t gone anywhere, and it’s reasonable to expect that the Blue Jays will ask him to rely on his secondary offerings much more this year than he did in 2024. He’ll be playing behind a solid if unspectacular lineup that should give him a chance to win games, and the strikeout-to-walk ratio will help more than hurt. The only other concern I have is that the Jays’ outfield defense may not be elite and Scherzer is very much a fly-ball pitcher, but I think the stuff and command is still good enough for him to be a top 40 starting pitcher in the upcoming campaign.
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