Bracketology Bubble Watch: Indiana out of field, Arkansas faces Texas with both teams looking to build résumé

Welcome to the 2025 debut of Bracketology Bubble Watch, the daily column wrapping up how NCAA Tournament bubble teams are trending and a look ahead at upcoming games involving teams near the cut line to make the field of 68. 

Also listed are teams I consider to be locks for the NCAA Tournament. For me, a team is a lock only if I believe it would still make the NCAA Tournament even if it lost all of its remaining games. That is a more strict definition than is widely used. It will be a short list in early February.

Also, this page will show my “last four in” and “first four out” that can also be found on the Bracketology page, but also will feature the “next four out” for added context.

Tuesday was a busy day for teams on the bubble. 

• BYU lost at home to Arizona, missing an opportunity to pick up a Quad 1 win at home. The schedule gets tougher for the Cougars now as four of their next six are on the road and one of the home games is vs. Kansas.
• Iowa may be a short-term resident of the bubble following a 90-81 loss at home to Purdue. The loss of Owen Freeman for the season due to an injured finger makes the task of getting to the NCAA Tournament even more difficult. The Hawkeyes have lost five of their last six and may only be favored in two of their remaining games.
• Indiana followed a a very competitive loss to the Boilermakers last week with a blowout loss at Wisconsin. That makes six losses in seven games for the Hoosiers and their remaining schedule is daunting. Indiana may only be favored once the rest of the way.

Wednesday’s action features a conference leader on the bubble and a “double bubble” game.

Check out Palm’s latest bracket, full field of 68 and Bubble Watch at the Bracketology hub

All times ET

Wednesday’s ‘double bubble’ game

Arkansas at Texas

9 p.m. (ESPNU)

The “double bubble” game of the night features Arkansas, which played its way onto the bubble with a win at Kentucky last week. The Razorbacks may need to win some games in which they are an underdog to find themselves on the right side of the bubble at the end.

Texas is in better shape than the Hogs for now and have a relatively favorable schedule by SEC standards down the stretch. They have three of their next four at home, but two of those are Alabama and Kentucky. These two will play each other again at the end of the month.

Other bubble teams in action Wednesday

UCF

vs. Cincinnati, 6 p.m. (CBSSN)

UCF is on the bubble not so much because of a 63 ranking in the NET but because they are just 3-8 against the top two quadrants. The three wins are pretty good, but they need to do more. The schedule sets up well for them, so they need to take advantage, especially at home.

Georgia

vs. LSU, 8:30 p.m. (SECN)

The Bulldogs have fallen on hard times of late, losing five of their last six. This starts a run of three out of four at home. If Georgia is going to make the NCAA Tournament, it cannot afford to lose to one of the few non-contenders in the SEC.

SMU 

at Virginia Tech, 9 p.m. (ACCN)

SMU is trying to résumé-build in a league that does not offer as many chances to do so as the other major conferences. The Mustangs are currently 0-4 in Quad 1 games with only one still left on the schedule. They have a lot more must-not-lose games than must win. This is one of those must-not-lose games.

Nebraska 

at Washington, 9:30 p.m. (BTN)

The Cornhuskers have won two in a row following a six-game losing streak. Those wins came over Illinois and at Oregon. They also have a relatively favorable remaining schedule by Big Ten standards. Nebraska needs to keep their momentum going against Washington.

New Mexico

vs. Colorado State, 9:30 p.m. (FS1)

New Mexico took over first place in the Mountain West with a win at Utah State on Saturday. The reason the Lobos are on the bubble is a Quad 3 loss at San Jose State and a Quad 4 loss at home to New Mexico State. Most of their remaining schedule includes games that can only hurt them.

Teams near the cut line

NCAA Tournament locks

Locks based on resume: 1 | Automatic bids secured: 0 

Note – all references to NCAA Tournament selection records and trends based on NET rankings excludes the 2021 tournament. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of non-conference games, those rankings are not reliable enough to be considered.