Leadoff Turner? Phillies’ offense could gain a boost if he adjusts

Leadoff Turner? Phillies’ offense could gain a boost if he adjusts originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

He’s made an undeniable impact out of the leadoff spot since joining the Phillies, but 2025 could look a bit different for Kyle Schwarber.

Manager Rob Thomson has said several times since last season ended that he’s considering a change atop the Phillies’ lineup, not because of poor performance from Schwarber but because the slugger’s power and protection could potentially serve the Phils better elsewhere.

There is a portion of the fanbase that has called for three years for Schwarber to bat closer to the middle, where a player with his skill set traditionally resides, but the Phillies have held off because of his high on-base percentage (.323 to .343 to .366 the last three years) and the mark his early offense makes on games. Schwarber set the major-league record last season with 15 leadoff home runs — one in March, three in April, one in May, two in June, two in July, two in August and three in September. Then he hit another leadoff homer in October to begin the Phillies’ NLDS against the Mets, one of their few uplifting moments in the series.

Nearly 85% of Schwarber’s plate appearances as a Phillie have come from the leadoff spot. The team is 28-9, including playoffs, when he hits a leadoff homer. That’s ideal. However, 97 of Schwarber’s 146 home runs as a Phillie have been solo shots — just over two-thirds. That’s not ideal.

It isn’t just the one first-inning plate appearance per game where Schwarber is guaranteed to hit with the bases empty. Batting leadoff also means following the bottom of the Phillies’ order. The Phils’ No. 8 hitters last season combined for a .300 on-base percentage and their No. 9 hitters had a .279 OBP.

Compare that, for example, to Schwarber batting second after Trea Turner, whose .328 OBP as a Phillie is 20 points below his career average but still significantly better than the bottom of the order’s. And if Schwarber were to hit a spot or two lower, third or fourth, he’d be protecting Bryce Harper, whose .389 career OBP ranks fourth among active players.

Thomson will experiment with the lineup throughout spring training. The first one will be out in just over two weeks. Pitchers and catchers report Feb. 12, the first full-squad workout is Feb. 17 and the Phillies’ Grapefruit League opener is Feb. 22.

If Schwarber does indeed come out of the leadoff spot, Turner is the leading candidate to replace him. Bryson Stott has an offensive profile that could be conducive to leading off, but Thomson feels that would make the Phillies too susceptible to lefties up top.

“I think you’re probably talking about Trea,” he said last week on The Phillies Show podcast. “The thing is, we’re so left-handed and you want Harper and you want Schwarber getting as many at-bats as you can. If you put Stott in the leadoff spot, now you’re really left-handed at the top. It might create a problem, even if you’re facing a right-hander. Everybody’s got three lefties in the ‘pen, it seems. They’ll just start matching up on you.”

Here are a couple of ideas of how the lineup could look with Turner leading off:

Trea Turner (R)
Kyle Schwarber (L)
Alec Bohm (R)
Bryce Harper (L)
Nick Castellanos (R)
Max Kepler (L)
J.T. Realmuto (R)
Bryson Stott (L)
Brandon Marsh (L)

This lineup construction would allow the Phillies to alternate righty-lefty until the nine-spot. If/when the opponent brings in a left-handed reliever, he’d almost certainly have to navigate at least one right-handed bat.

Trea Turner (R)
Bryce Harper (L)
Alec Bohm (R)
Kyle Schwarber (L)
Nick Castellanos (R)
Max Kepler (L)
J.T. Realmuto (R)
Bryson Stott (L)
Brandon Marsh (L)

The same lineup, just flip-flopping Harper and Schwarber. It could be argued that this lineup has a better chance of quickly putting runners on the corners or creating stress for the opposing pitcher ahead of difficult matchups with Bohm and Schwarber.

Turner, clearly, is a huge key to this. He’s been good but the Phillies haven’t received the superstar version of Trea Turner, which is capable of so much more. He hit .316/.364/.514 in the three seasons before joining the Phillies compared to .279/.328/.463 here. Over the course of a full season, that’s about 25 fewer times on base. And good things tend to happen when Turner reaches base because of his speed and the abilities of the hitters around him.

Turner has always been more all-around hitter than slugger, but over these two seasons, he’s surprisingly morphed into a pull-side power hitter. Of his 47 homers as a Phillie, 41 have been to left field, and there have been sections of seasons when he’s looked more like a boom-or-bust bat selling out for power.

The Phillies want both middle infielders, Turner and Stott, to utilize the entire field more in 2025 with a line-drive approach. They also need Turner to chase less. He’s an aggressive hitter by nature but as a Phillie has chased outside the zone 35% of the time compared to 28% prior.

There would seem to be no downside to trying it out. If leadoff Turner doesn’t work — he’s done it only 15 times as a Phillie with a .299 OBP — he and Schwarber could simply return to their previous spots. But if Turner can make the necessary adjustments and come closer to the player he was from 2016-22, the simple flip-flopping of himself and Schwarber could provide the Phillies an offensive spark, setting them up better for crooked numbers.