Bracketology Bubble Watch: Arkansas, Ohio State head into games which are all risk and not much reward

Indiana picked up the big win among bubble teams on Tuesday. The Hoosiers won at Michigan State 71-67, denying Spartans’ coach Tom Izzo the all-time record in wins by a coach in Big Ten conference games. He is currently tied with Indiana legend Bobby Knight with 353 Big Ten victories.

The win pushes IU to 3-10 against Quad 1 teams and this is the best of those wins. That will also be true at the end of the season. The loss broke a five-game skid and sets the Hoosiers up for a three-game home stand that includes games with UCLA and Purdue.

SMU humbled Pitt 83-63 in a “double bubble” game. It’s the best win of the season for the Mustangs, although it is not quite a Quad 1 win. They have home games coming up with Wake Forest and Clemson sandwiched around a trip to Notre Dame. Those home games may have a lot to say about whether SMU is an NCAA Tournament team.

The Panthers fall to 1-8 in Quad 1 games and have losses in each of Quad 2 and Quad 3. They have now lost four in a row and eight out of 10. Six of their seven remaining regular season games are against teams with triple-digit NET rankings. Those games are “must not lose,” but they will also have to win at Louisville.

BYU was also a big winner, defeating West Virginia 73-69 in Morgantown. That is the Cougars’ best win of the season so far. They also beat Baylor, which is ranked higher than the Mountaineers, but that game was at home. There are no “gimmies” left on the BYU schedule, but that also means opportunities to build its résumé every time it takes the floor.

Wednesday’s schedule offers only opportunities to fail for the bubble teams in action. Nobody has a game that can help their résumé.

Check out Palm’s latest bracket, full field of 68 and Bubble Watch at the Bracketology hub

All times ET

Bubble teams in action Wednesday

Wake Forest

vs. Florida State, 7 p.m. (ESPNU)

Wake Forest has four very winnable home games left on their schedule and because it is only 1-6 vs. Quad 1 opposition, winning those games are a must. The first of those is when Seminoles coach Leonard Hamilton makes his final visit to Wake Forest before retiring at the end of the season.

Ohio State

vs. Washington, 8:30 p.m. (Big Ten Network)

The Buckeyes have shown they are capable of getting big wins. They won at Mackey Arena vs. Purdue and beat Kentucky in the CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden. Unfortunately, they are still just 8-10 against the top three quadrants. This is the first of a three-game homestand that is important to their postseason hopes because three of their last four are on the road.

Arkansas

vs. LSU, 9 p.m. (ESPN2)

Arkansas has three Quad 1 wins, including a win at Texas last Wednesday. Despite that, the Razorbacks are just 4-9 against the top two quadrants and 7-9 vs. quads 1-3. This is a must-win game because Arkansas may not be favored more than twice in its last six games. It will take more than two wins in those games to feel any level of comfort entering the SEC Tournament.

New Mexico

vs. Wyoming 10 p.m. (FS1)

Simply put, the Lobos cannot afford another Quad 4 loss. New Mexico has a good chance to win the Mountain West, but that means winning the games it should win. This is one of at least three of those left on the Lobos’ schedule.

Teams near the cut line

NCAA Tournament locks

Locks based on resume: 3 | Automatic bids secured: 0 

Note – all references to NCAA Tournament selection records and trends based on NET rankings excludes the 2021 tournament. Due to shortened schedules and a relatively small number of non-conference games, those rankings are not reliable enough to be considered.