Selection Sunday is near: Four Bracketology questions about the No. 1 seeds (and what we think of the answers)

With Selection Sunday less than two weeks away, it’s time to dive deeper into burning questions before the reveal of the bracket. It’s tracking to be inventible that Auburn will earn the No. 1 overall seed later this month because it has the best resumé in the sport. It would take a late-season collapse for another team to jump the Tigers for the No. 1 overall seed.

With Auburn trending toward being the top team, the question then becomes who will be the other three No. 1 seeds? As of Monday, Duke, Houston and Tennessee are the other three No. 1 seeds in the latest Bracketology projections by CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm. Alabama was the final No. 1 seed in the bracket before losing to Tennessee on a last-second 3-pointer by Jahmai Mashack last weekend.

In Palm’s Bracketology projections, Alabama, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Florida are listed on the No. 2 line. Big East regular season champion St. John’s is a No. 3 seed alongside Purdue, Texas A&M and Michigan. Could any of those teams jump to a No. 1 seed during the next 13 days? 

We asked Palm four burning questions to address — and then offered our opinion on his opinion. 

1. What would it take for Duke to fall off the 1 line? 

What Palm says: I’m not sure two would be enough unless they were major upsets. Lose to Wake at home Monday night and someone similar or worse in the ACCT, and then we can entertain the discussion. Also, someone would have to step up and take it as well.

What we think: The last part of Palm’s answer is the key here. The Blue Devils should feel good about their chances of earning a No. 1 seed. In my opinion, the only way Duke is not a No. 1 seed is if it loses one of its final two games in the regular season and has an early exit in the ACC Tournament. It’s far more likely that Duke finishes as the No. 2 overall seed in the bracket, which means it would be on the other side from Auburn.

2. If Michigan State wins out, can it get a No. 1 seed? Does it require Tennessee and Florida both losing twice?

What Palm says: Michigan State has a case. The Spartans already have 10 Quad 1 wins and two more Q1 games left in the regular season. They would likely get at least two more on a run to a Big Ten title, so they’d have 14. That’s a number that allows them to compete with the SEC schools. Keep in mind at least three of those will lose in the SEC tournament.

What we think: Out of all the current No. 2 seeds (Alabama, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Florida), I believe Alabama and Michigan State have strong cases to jump back to a No. 1 seed. Both teams would need some help (more on that later) to get there, but there will be plenty of opportunities between now and Selection Sunday to add to their resumés. Alabama faces Florida and Auburn, while Michigan State plays Iowa and Michigan. Again, Tennessee would have to stumble down the stretch for Michigan State or Alabama to jump up, but it’s still possible.

3. Would Florida move above Tennessee with a win at Alabama this week?

What Palm says: Tennessee would also have to lose at Ole Miss on Wednesday. 

What we think: Florida was on the No. 1 seed line for a while before losing to Georgia last week. That loss to the Bulldogs isn’t a bad loss by any means, but it hurt Florida’s chances of securing a No. 1 seed. Florida faces Alabama and Ole Miss to end the regular season. A 2-0 stretch and a strong showing in the SEC Tournament will make things interesting. The winner of Alabama vs. Florida later this week will have a chance of earning a No. 1 seed, while the loser will likely stay on the No. 2 line.

4. Any path for St. John’s to a No. 1 seed aside from everyone else losing twice?

What Palm says: Even that may not be enough. As great of a season as the Red Storm have had, they only have three Q1 wins.

What we think: It would take some late-season chaos for this to happen. The Red Storm don’t have the resumé that other teams have. As Palm noted, St. John’s only has three Quad 1 wins, which isn’t great. It’s more realistic that St. John’s earns a No. 2 seed on Selection Sunday, pending madness happening elsewhere.