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The Missouri Valley Conference kicks off conference tournament season with a pair of afternoon games on Thursday, the second being the No. 5 seed Illinois State Redbirds playing the No. 12 seed Missouri State Bears in the first round of the 2025 MVC Tournament. Illinois State went 18-13 overall, including 10-10 in conference play this season. Missouri State went 9-22 overall and 2-18 in the MVC. The Redbirds won both of their head-to-head meetings this year.
Tipoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on Thursday from the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Mo. Illinois State is favored by 5.5 points in the latest Missouri State vs. Illinois State odds, while the over/under is 132.5 points per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Illinois State vs. Missouri State picks, you’ll want to see the college basketball predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.
The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters Week 18 of the 2024-25 season on a 221-162 betting roll (+1895) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
The model has set its sights on Missouri State vs. Illinois State. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball betting lines for Illinois State vs. Missouri State:
- Illinois State vs. Missouri State spread: Illinois State -5.5
- Illinois State vs. Missouri State over/under: 132.5 points
- Illinois State vs. Missouri State money line: Illinois State -239, Missouri State +195
- MSU.: Missouri State is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) over its last six games
- ISU.: Illinois State is 2-1 ATS at neutral sites this season
- Illinois State vs. Missouri State picks: See picks here
- Illinois State vs. Missouri State streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why Missouri State can cover
The Bears have been an effective team at covering the spread as an underdog, especially lately. Missouri State is 13-7-1 ATS (65%) as an underdog this season, including covering in five of its last six games as an underdog. The Bears lost five of those games straight up, but with a pair of two-point losses and all five defeats coming by less than 10 points, Missouri State has remained competitive despite its lack of victories. The Bears covered the spread in each of their losses to Illinois State this year.
Sophomore guard Dez White leads the Bears with 14.3 points per game, while junior guard Vincent Brady II adds 13.7 points per contest. Missouri State had four straight winning seasons before this year’s struggles under head coach Cuonzo Martin, who returned this year to the program he led for three years from the 2008-09 season to the 2010-11 season. See which team to pick here.
Why Illinois State can cover
The Redbirds went 3-1 over their final four regular-season games and are coming off a 62-53 win over Evansville on Sunday. Illinois State defeated Bradley, the No. 2 seed in the MVC Tournament, during its 3-1 stretch and although that’s the only of the three wins the Redbirds covered the spread, they failed to cover by less than two points in their other two victories. Illinois State went 18-12 ATS (60%), including 10-1 ATS off its home court.
Sophomore forward Chase Walker led Illinois State at 15.1 points and 6.0 rebounds per game with Johnny Kinziger complimenting him with 15 points per contest. Fifth-year senior guard Dalton Banks is playing some of his best basketball heading into the MVC Tournament as he’s led the Redbirds in scoring in three straight games. See which team to pick here.
How to make Illinois State vs. Missouri State picks
The model has simulated Missouri State vs. Illinois State 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Illinois State vs. Missouri State, and which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Missouri State vs. Illinois State spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 221-162 roll on top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.
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