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The 2023 NFL Playoffs roll on into the conference championships this weekend, with the Chiefs hosting the Bengals for the second-straight AFC title game and the Eagles hosting the 49ers for the first time in postseason history. This should be an extremely fun weekend of football with the spreads for each game under a field goal and the Super Bowl futures as close as we’ve ever seen in the final round of conference play. Today, we will highlight the best spread, moneyline, over/under, and prop bets for conference championship weekend.
All season, we have carefully selected bets from BetMGM that strike us as intriguing and seem like the best value for our money. We dive deep into split stats, betting trends, and advanced data to find angles and edges to attack. At this stage of the postseason, we pretty much know what to expect from each squad and each matchup, but we still must take into account all the week-to-week variables like injuries, coaching, and weather.
MORE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP: Odds, lines, spreads | Bill Bender’s Best Bets
We have hit on five major bets in two consecutive weeks, and we have a 66.7-percent win rate since the start of the 2023 playoffs. Take a look at our successes from the divisional round:
| Team | Opponent | Bet/Odds | Outcome |
| Bengals | at Bills | +6 (-110) | CIN 27-10 |
| 49ers | vs. Cowboys | 1st half moneyline (-175) | SF 9-6 |
| Chiefs | vs. Jaguars | UNDER 53 (-110) | KC 27-20 |
| Eagles | vs. Giants | UNDER 48.5 (-110) | PHI 38-7 |
| Chiefs | vs. Jaguars | Travis Kelce anytime TD (-135) | 2 TDs |
Talk about a great stretch — we’re ending the 2022-23 NFL campaign on a hot streak and making readers a ton of money in the process. If you bet $100 on each of these wagers individually, you would have walked away with $903.94 total. If you happened to parlay these wagers into a five-leg parlay and bet $100, you would have started your work week over $1,900 richer!
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Let’s keep the good times rolling and ride into the second stage of the postseason with the confidence of Joe Burrow arriving at Arrowhead. Here are our best bets for the conference championship round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs.
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
Best NFL Playoffs Conference Championship Bets: Against the spread
49ers (+3.5) at Eagles (buy one point, -148)
This game seems too close to call on the moneyline, but we can confidently back San Francisco against the spread with an extra point for insurance. The Niners have won 12 games in a row — eight since Brock Purdy came in after Jimmy Garoppolo’s broken foot — and they have a ton of No. 1s: defense (in terms of scoring and yards), running back (CMC still rules all), and coaching (Kyle Shanahan plays chess while most coaches play checkers).
MORE 49ERS-EAGLES:
Betting preview | Best props | SGP | DK lineup | FD lineup
Don’t get us wrong, the Eagles deserve to be home favorites here. Jalen Hurts put together an MVP-caliber season, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have been brilliant, and Nick Sirianni and this underrated Philly coaching staff helped improve their defense and o-line mightily. Tight end Dallas Goedert looks back to his dominant form after a midseason injury, and the running game obliterated the Giants for 268 yards last week in the divisional round.
Still, giving the Niners 3.5 points makes this a no-brainer. San Francisco has averaged 32.6 points per game since unleashing Purdy, and opponents have averaged 17.4 points per game in that span. The Niners won’t roll over against Philly’s rushing game, as DeMeco Ryans’ unit allowed the second-fewest ground yards and net yards per carry this season. It also surrendered the fifth-fewest QB rushing yards and just two rushing TDs by QBs.
Hurts will have to beat San Francisco with his arm, which we haven’t seen him do since his Week 15 shoulder injury. In the two games since returning to face the Giants in Week 18 and then the divisional round, the third-year QB has averaged 18 completions on 29.5 attempts for 191.5 yards and one TD per game. He has also thrown a pick and been sacked four times for 28 yards. Purdy, Shanny, and the high-flying 49ers should prevail straight up, but if they lose, it won’t be by more than a field goal.
Best NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Bet: Moneyline
Bengals (+100) at Chiefs
Of course, Patrick Mahomes could pull off the improbable and lead his Chiefs past the Bengals for the first time since Joe Burrow entered the league. But “best bets” involves the probable, and that’s why we’re going with 72 percent of sharp bettors and backing Cincinnati.
MORE BENGALS-CHIEFS:
Betting Preview | Best props | SGP | DK lineup | FD lineup
There’s a reason why Bengals defensive back Mike Hilton and Cincy fans made “Burrowhead” go viral on Twitter recently — Joey Brr has owned Mahomes and dominated at Arrowhead Stadium. A 3-0 head-to-head record over the past 13 months and a comeback win in last year’s AFC championship game tell us all we need to know about that.
.@MikeHilton_28 and the @Bengals made a statement Sunday ‼ pic.twitter.com/WjNFB46aNo
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) January 25, 2023
Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain adds a Chief-size degree of uncertainty that pushes the Bengals’ moneyline from a decent value to a best bet. The removal of the presumptive MVP’s walking boot may have led casual bettors to smash bets on the No. 1 seed, pushing Kansas City back from underdog status to favorites again, but that just solidifies Cincy as a huge value at plus odds. Seasoned bettors know this game should probably be a -110 moneyline on both sides.
ODD WEEK OF ODDS:
Why Bengals were favorites | Chiefs back as favorites
QBs must be at or near 100 percent to prevail over Burrow in massive games, especially when he’s in the midst of a 10-game winning streak. If Mahomes has limited pocket mobility, difficulty scrambling, or trouble planting for deep throws, then the Bengals’ proficient pass-rush behind Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard will capitalize, leading Burrow and his elite pass-catching corps to advance to their second-straight Super Bowl. Victory cigars for all. Put that on your bulletin board for the 2023 season, Kansas City!
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Best NFL Playoffs Conference Championship Bet: Over/under
49ers at Eagles: UNDER 48 (buy 1.5 points, -142)
I’ll be the first to admit I’m overcautious — I guess I have been that way since my wife and I started having children four years ago — but a point-and-a-half can be a massive help in a tight game, especially with two strong offenses facing two stud defenses! After seeing Philly hold Brian Daboll’s Giants to seven points last week and San Francisco limit Dallas to 12, 48 seems like more than enough of a bar for our UNDER to hit.
Take a look at both these squads’ opponent points per game averages, as well as their NFL ranks (per Team Rankings):
| 2022 (to date) | Last 3 games | Home | Away | |
| 49ers | 16.4 (No. 1) | 16.0 (No. 5) | 15.3 (No. 1) | 18 (No. 2) |
| Eagles | 19.5 (No. 6) | 14.3 (No. 4) | 17.6 (No. 4) | 21.9 (No. 11) |
If those numbers don’t get you pumped up for the UNDER, I don’t know what will. Both of these units have been dominant all season, and San Francisco has shown the ability to show up whether at home or on the road. Philly’s D, meanwhile, clearly plays better with home-field advantage. Even if we add 12 total points to these defense’s combined averages, we end up UNDER 48. Seems like a best bet to me!
Best NFL Playoffs Conference Championship Bets: Props
49ers at Eagles: George Kittle to score a TD (+190)
Kittle has emerged as one of Purdy’s favorite targets, scoring seven TDs over San Francisco’s past six games. He hasn’t found paydirt yet in the playoffs, so we can safely say “he’s due.” He caught all five of his targets last week against a tough Dallas defense, finishing the day with a whopping 95 yards. Philly has been tough against tight ends this season, but a healthy Kittle is far from your average tight end. Expect at least a couple of Purdy red-zone looks going the four-time Pro Bowler’s way.
Other 49ers-Eagles props we like: Christian McCaffrey to score two-plus TDs (+400); A.J. Brown TD (+140); DeVonta Smith TD (+140); Kenneth Gainwell OVER 11.5 rushing yards (-117)
MORE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PROP BETS: 49ers-Eagles | Bengals-Chiefs
Chiefs vs. Bengals: Travis Kelce to score a TD (-122)
It’s not plus odds like most TD props usually are, but that’s because Kelce has been raking in the money for us with his scoring. He scored 12 TDs during the regular season, and he landed in the end zone twice last week. When these squads met in last year’s AFC championship game, the All-Pro hauled in 10-of-11 targets for 95 yards and a TD. Even if Mahomes is banged up, Kelce will produce. He scored when Chad Henne took over for him for a drive last week, and then again when Mahomes came back out on the field heavily taped. Just like we say “start your studs” during the fantasy season, bet your studs in the postseason!
Other Chiefs-Bengals props we like: Patrick Mahomes UNDER 286.5 passing yards (-129); Joe Burrow UNDER 277.5 passing yards (-103); Tyler Boyd OVER 3.5 catches (+116); Marquez Valdes-Scantling longest reception OVER 17.5 yards (-115)
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