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The Rotoworld Baseball staff offered their early sleeper picks for hitters and pitchers earlier this month, but now it’s time to look at the other end of the spectrum with our picks for “busts.”
Now, a quick word about “busts.” What does it mean, exactly? Ultimately, it’s a flashy word for a player who is deemed unlikely to live up to last year’s performance and/or their ADP (average draft position) for this year. Call them “busts” if you’d like, but “overvalued” works just fine as well. Either way, don’t say we didn’t warn you.
Stay tuned later this week for Rotoworld’s picks for busts on the starting pitcher side of things.
2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Rankings, strategy, sleepers, mock draft results
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FANTASY BASEBALL BUST HITTERS FOR 2025
Willy Adames SS, Giants
Adames has long been one of the better and more underrated infielders in baseball, but I’m not sure I love the fit for him in San Francisco from a fantasy perspective. He hasn’t been a quality contributor in the average category for the last few years, and his swing path and willingness to hit in two-strike counts aren’t likely to see him help in that regard. Oracle Park is also not friendly confines in terms of helping power hitters, and while Adames has been an excellent source of pop, he’s now going to be playing in a home park that had the third-worst Park Factor for right-handed hitters in 2024. And while Adames did steal 21 bases last year, it’s worth noting that he had never stolen more than eight bags in a year prior to 2024, and the Giants were dead last in stolen bases last year. Adames is a quality player, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable with him being my starting shortstop to begin 2025; not with so many other solid options available with similar upside and higher floors.
Mark Vientos 3B, Mets
Vientos took over the third base job for the Mets in midseason and finished the 2024 season with a .266 average, 27 home runs and 71 RBI in 111 games. He also hit .327 with five home runs and 14 RBI in 13 playoff games for the Mets. Vientos is exactly the kind of trap fantasy players typically fall for. He’s a good player on a popular team and his production in less than a full season is begging for his numbers to be extrapolated to what’s possible for him in 150+ games. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old third baseman isn’t without his drawbacks. Vientos strikes out a lot as evidenced by his 29.7 percent strikeouts percentage last year and he needed a .324 BABIP to hit just .266. Unless he cuts down on his strikeouts, there’s a clear path to him hitting around .240 next year with normal regression. The BAT X projects Vientos to hit .232 with 27 home runs, 68 runs scored, 81 RBI and one stolen base. His NFBC ADP in February in the Online Championship is 97.69, well ahead of Jake Burger (121.77) and Matt Chapman (134.10) who project for the same or better production across the board at the same position. Vientos also won’t gain first base eligibility during the season with the Mets bringing Pete Alonso back, while Burger is already eligible at first and third base. – Nick Shlain
Xander Bogaerts SS/2B, Padres
We may be seeing the decline of Xander Bogaerts. While he’s always provided an excellent floor, his ceiling appears to be getting lower and lower. We’ve now seen his hard-hit rate decline for three consecutive seasons, down to a 33% rate in 2024. It likely played a factor in his career-low .264 batting average. While he appeared to bounce back after missing time with a shoulder injury, batting .299/.338/.432 over his final 263 plate appearances, it came with a 34.8% hard-hit rate and 3.9% barrel rate. According to Statcast, his expected batting average over that span was .259, indicating some fortunate batted-ball luck. Bogaerts may not exactly hurt fantasy teams, there just may be much more exciting options going later in drafts such as Masyn Winn, Jeremy Peña, Dansby Swanson, Willi Castro, and Carlos Correa. – Jorge Montanez
Junior Caminero 3B, Rays
It’s difficult to pen perhaps the top overall prospect in all of baseball as a bust, but given his current draft price, I don’t see any way that Junior Caminero returns a profit in 2025. Sure, he’s the type of elite talent that could just take a major leap forward and take the world by storm in his sophomore campaign – especially playing his home games at Steinbrenner Field — but the way I see it he’s really a three-category player. I don’t expect Caminero to hit for a positive batting average and I don’t think he’ll deliver more than a handful of stolen bases. I’m also a bit skeptical of his counting stats hitting in the middle of what looks to be an underwhelming Rays’ lineup. I’d be willing to take a chance on the upside if he were in the pick 150-200 range, but he’s already priced up at pick 75 by average draft position and the cost is only going to rise from there as we get closer to the season. I may wind up looking foolish on this one, but I’d rather have solid, stable production in the fifth or sixth round rather than hoping that Caminero hits the highest end of his range of outcomes right out of the gate. – David Shovein
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Jackson Merrill OF, Padres
Bust may be too sharp a word here, as Merill is just being a bit over-drafted rather than someone who’s possible to flame out as ‘bust’ may indicate. His high batting average projections are doing a lot to anchor him as a near-second round pick while there could be more downside there than indicated. He excelled as a rookie by being incredibly aggressive, making tons of contact, spraying the ball all over the field, and doing tons of damage. All great things, but at some point I expect pitchers to force him to be patient with more pitches out of the strike zone or in spots that he can’t barrel up as easily. His bat control is outrageous though and maybe he can hit his way through anything. If not, his profile dampens a good bit with a .250 average versus a .280 average and that regression is totally reasonable. – James Schiano
Rafael Devers 3B, Red Sox
Here’s an oversimplification: The vibes are not great at the outset of Red Sox camp with Devers recently scoffing at the idea of moving to DH to accommodate newly added free agent Alex Bregman, who is a vastly superior defender at the hot corner. With top prospect Kristian Campbell on the cusp of ascending to the majors, most likely at second base, it feels like Devers ends up being the odd man out. Shifting to DH likely keeps him healthier from a long-term physical perspective, which is critical considering he battled knee and shoulder issues throughout last season. The greater concern is how quickly he’ll adjust to DH-ing on a permanent basis, which has proven to be a significant mental hurdle, even for some of the best hitters of their generation. It’s a variable that’s impossible to quantify from a numerical standpoint, but it’s worth monitoring Devers’ mindset and role throughout spring training as it figures to greatly impact his on-field performance at the dish. – George Bissell
Ozzie Albies 2B, Braves
Despite missing extensive time in three of the last five seasons, Albies is still being treated as a top-50 pick and the fourth second baseman off the board in most leagues. It’s understandable why, given that his two healthy seasons have both seen him finish with 30 homers, 100 RBI and double digits in steals. Still, a healthy Albies wasn’t that same player in the 90 games before he suffered a fractured wrist last year, hitting .258/.310/.407 with 10 homers. Never an exit-velocity king, Albies’ strength has always been pulled flyball homers, which typically leaves him with middling batting averages, and given that he’s topped a .310 OBP just once in five years, he doesn’t rate a spot in the top two of this Braves lineup. Instead, he seems destined to bat fifth or sixth initially and probably one spot lower once Ronald Acuña Jr. returns. He’s also slowing down some, with his 2024 sprint speed coming in a tad under the league average. I’d be tempted to reverse course here and roll the dice on Albies if he ever gave up switch-hitting and focused on his right-handed stroke. As mediocre as he tends to be against righties, he’s rather overrated right now. – Matthew Pouliot
Michael Toglia 1B, Rockies
I was behind the early draft season idea of Michael Toglia as a solid late-round corner infield option, but he has now risen inside the top 200 picks and has gone as high as pick 150 in the last 15 NFBC Online Championship drafts. To me, that’s leaning too much into the “power hitter in Coors Field” narrative. Even in his strong second-half stretch, he struck out 33% of the time, and his season-long swinging strike rate of 15.7% is concerning. That led to just a 4th-percentile contact rate overall, so even though he hits the ball hard, he doesn’t make contact enough for that to lead to consistent damage. As a switch-hitter, he’s also worse against right-handed pitching with a .208/.293/.411 career slash line to go along with a 33% strikeout rate. The poor lineup around him will keep his counting stats down, so I think you’re looking at 25 home runs with a .220 average and there are plenty of hitters later in the draft who can give you that. – Eric Samulski
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