2025 Fantasy baseball predictions for draft season trends

Every fantasy draft of every season has a meta. Remember when it was a given that running backs would dominate the first round of football drafts? Remember when there would be as many as three or four starting pitchers in the first round of baseball drafts? Today, the Yahoo Fantasy Baseball crew predicts the major trends we’ll see in drafts for 2025.

No more pitching in the first round — or first four rounds

If there is any justice, sanity or logic in fantasy baseball, we will see pitchers leave the first round entirely, and very few of them among the top 50 overall picks. We seem to be making some progress toward this end in certain high-stakes leagues. The position simply presents too much injury risk and offers too little upside, in part because no one can be reliably projected for even 200 innings.

Last season, only four starting pitchers cleared 200 frames and none of them reached 210. Never in the 150-plus-year history of professional baseball have pitchers done less work. No pitcher has tossed 250 innings in a season since 2011 and there’s zero chance anyone will approach that mark in 2025.

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Even as pitching workloads have shrunk, injury rates are spiking. According to Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster, pitchers accounted for a whopping 74% of total IL days last year, up from 63% in 2019. Fewer innings at an individual level have certainly not resulted in fewer days lost to injury.

At some point, the excessive risk at this spot and the availability of talent in the late rounds and via the wire will finally bump pitchers from the opening rounds. It’s been years since any of these guys deserved first-round status. — Andy Behrens

How important is the closer position?

There are currently 10 relief pitchers in the top 100 on Yahoo’s ADP board, and I think that reflects drafters getting smarter. They recognize that save striation is a fact of life that isn’t going away, and even in the shrewdest of leagues, unexpected save sources will always come into the league. A popular strategy this spring could be the Hero RP approach, where you spend one top 100 pick on a closer you feel confident about, then assemble the rest of your handshake guys on a budget.

The more confident you feel in your waiver wire skills, the more viable this strategy becomes, but I think it’s a flat mistake to proactively go after two vanity closers in most drafts. Most managers are realizing this position isn’t quite as stressful as it’s made out to be. — Scott Pianowski

Injuries to keep ADP in flux

As draft season ramps up, we’ll see dramatic shifts in ADP based on injury news. Ronald Acuña Jr. was the top pick in fantasy drafts last year, but he’s going outside the top 25 this season thanks to an uncertain timeline for his return from ACL surgery. Fantasy managers are likely expecting him to miss about a month, but his ADP could move significantly with more clarity. Moreover, Spencer Strider’s ADP (139.3) could see a massive jump with good news, as he’s already throwing bullpens and could be ready for a game in spring training.

Tyler Glasnow’s status is a bit murky after being shut down last season with arm issues, but rest (not surgery) has supposedly healed him over the offseason. Positive Glasnow reports would see his modest ADP (90) spike, whereas any more concerns popping up before April would have fantasy managers running.

Félix Bautista hasn’t pitched since 2023, but he recorded an MLB-high 46.4 K% and an MLB-low 2.06 SIERA the last time we saw him. His ADP (80.8) will likely dramatically shift based on his spring velocity reports.

Roki Sasaki has a ton of fantasy upside while landing with the Dodgers, but the uncertain status of his arm health should become clearer during draft season. Christian Yelich was performing like a star last season before his ongoing back issues finally forced surgery. He’s expected to be ready for spring training, but his status is more of a mystery now.

We haven’t seen Matt McLain since 2023, and the same goes for Shane McClanahan, who’s a former ace coming off his second Tommy John surgery. More clarity on injuries will lead to huge shifts in ADP. — Dalton Del Don

Rookies will rise rapidly in drafts

The 2025 draft season will be remembered as the year of the rising rookie. Dodgers starter Roki Sasaki is currently available past pick 100, which will change once he starts mowing down batters in Spring Training. Matt Shaw, with his exciting power-speed blend, will surge up draft boards once he locks down the Cubs’ hot-corner job in March. Caleb Durbin will go from fantasy afterthought to exciting sleeper when the Brewers decide that his elite contact skills belong in their lineup. The buzz on Jasson Dominguez will continue to grow as managers become more aware that he’s going to be an everyday player who might hit leadoff.

On the pitching side, Bubba Chandler and Jackson Jobe are going to win rotation spots and become middle-round picks, and Quinn Mathews will be a late-round sleeper when he cracks the Cards rotation. And Kumar Rocker is going to look so good in spring training that he pushes past every rookie starter except Sasaki.

I might jump into a February draft, grab all these rookies at a discount, and then laugh all the way to the bank when their value elevates by Opening Day.

Standard Yahoo leagues have small benches and plentiful waiver wires, which makes drafting these rookies more sensible than in deeper formats. Wise managers will take March chances on youngsters, knowing that they can pivot back to boring veterans in April if necessary. — Fred Zinkie