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Heading into this offseason, the Mets’ payroll situation opens up in a significant way where they can have access to “pretty much the entirety of the player universe,” as president of baseball operations David Stearns stated.
Yes, this means a lot of words will be written and spoken about Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Pete Alonso, Tanner Scott and plenty more as options for the Mets. Current payroll projections have the Mets around $70 million shy of the first luxury tax threshold of $241 million and around $110 million shy of the highest luxury tax threshold. The expectation from Stearns is that the team will spend “a good portion” of the approximate $180 million coming off the books.
While any of the above players and others are in play, the Mets are not going to just issue long-term, big money contracts to every top free agent they can get this winter. They want to be involved in free agency on a yearly basis, as Stearns recently explained: “We also have to recognize that we want to set up our organizational pattern so that we can invest in free agency, invest where we think we need to to complement the club on an annual basis.”
When evaluating the Mets’ roster, they are going to need to fill multiple spots in the starting rotation and bullpen. They also could use an outfielder or two and potentially a designated hitter. This means acquiring players that are considered value signings in addition to pursuing some of the big stars listed above.
Here are nine under-the-radar free agents the Mets should pursue:
RHP Nick Pivetta
Pivetta is an option who stands out as a potential breakout candidate. Despite posting a pretty average 4.14 ERA in 145.2 innings for the Red Sox in 2024, under the hood had a lot of promising things. That 4.14 ERA came along with a 3.59 expected ERA, implying some bad luck. He also had two things you are looking for: he struck batters out (28.9 percent strikeout rate, which put him in the 88th percentile in MLB) and he greatly improved his walk rate from previous seasons (6.1 percent walk rate, which put him in the 80th percentile in MLB). He possesses a five-pitch mix with a mid-90s four seam fastball that generates upwards of 20 inches of induced vertical break, a sweeper, curve ball, cutter, and gyro slider. Pivetta could be a strong gamble on a two-year deal.
1B Paul Goldschmidt
There is a realistic world where Alonso does not re-sign with the Mets, and I think many are too quickly assuming that if that happens, Mark Vientos would just slide over to first base. Goldschmidt had a down year by nearly every statistical measurement from his career norms. It could be that he turned 37 years old, but one thing that stood out is that he still hits the ball hard. His average exit velocity of 91.2 mph was in the 82nd percentile, his 10.7 percent barrel rate was above average in the 73rd percentile, and his hard-hit percentage of 49.6 percent was elite in the 92nd percentile. He may not be the MVP candidate that he once was, but he could be a one-year veteran option at first base if Alonso departs.
OF Tyler O’Neill
If Soto does not end up in Queens, the Mets are still going to be looking for an outfielder or two this offseason. Current day Starling Marte may be a better fit to take more designated hitter at-bats in 2025 than outfield innings, given his lower body injuries over the last couple of years. O’Neill graded out just below average defensively at -1 outs above average in right field compared to Marte’s -8. He has a similarly strong arm to Marte as well. The 29-year-old had a breakout offensive season in his walk year, posting an .847 OPS with 31 home runs in just 113 games for the Red Sox. He swings hard (90th percentile bat speed) and hits the ball hard (77th percentile average exit velocity, 98th percentile barrel rate and 90th percentile hard hit rate). At his age with the season he had, his contract might end up more in the three-year range.
RHP Shane Bieber
Bieber is a different case than the others on this list because he will likely not be ready to pitch until the second half after undergoing Tommy John surgery this past April.
This situation is not too dissimilar to last year, when Brandon Woodruff was a free agent. Bieber is likely looking at a two-year deal where he can be paid to rehab and a team could potentially get some late season innings in 2025 along with value financially for a perennial front-line starter in 2026.
LHP Matthew Boyd
Boyd underwent Tommy John surgery in June of 2023 and ended up making it back during the 2024 season, getting into eight games for the Guardians while posting a 2.72 ERA in 39.2 innings. He primarily focuses on three pitches: a four-seam fastball that regained his career norm in velocity, averaging 92 mph, a changeup, and a slider. He will mix in a sinker and curve ball 10 percent of the time or less. He looks the part of a No. 4 type of starter who seems destined to sign a one-year deal to attempt to rebuild his value.
RHP David Robertson
A reunion? Why not? Yes, Robertson will be 40 years old on Opening Day, but he is coming off a fantastic season with the Rangers. In 72 innings across 68 appearances, he posted a 3.00 ERA while striking out 99 batters. His 33.3 percent strikeout rate was his best since 2017. His pitch metrics on his patented cutter were the best that he’s had since Statcast began tracking it in 2017, providing a +19 run value as hitters hit .163 against it. While there is an age risk here, I see nothing to suggest he cannot be a setup type of reliever on a one-year deal again.
RHP Jose Leclerc
When Leclerc first came up for the Rangers, he looked like he was going to be one of the best relievers in the sport, which led to Texas giving him a six-year contract before the 2019 season. He was at times a closer but settled in more as a seventh or eighth inning reliever. His 2024 season was not great on the surface, with him posting a 4.32 ERA in 66.2 innings. However, that came along with an expected ERA of 3.57 and he generated swings and misses at an elite rate (96th percentile whiff percentage and 92nd percentile strikeout percentage) while reducing hard contact (96th percentile hard hit percentage). He is primarily a mid-90s fastball and low-to-mid 80s slider type reliever who’ll mix in a cutter, changeup, and sinker. If a team could clean up his pitch mix a bit, I think Leclerc could provide value as a late inning reliever and be had on a two-year deal.
RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
Loaisiga underwent season-ending internal brace elbow surgery this past April, with a 10–to-12-month recovery timeline expected. The long end of that timeline would have him not ready for Opening Day, but as Stearns has said repeatedly, the Opening Day bullpen is not the bullpen you will have all season. Loaisiga is a strike-throwing, extreme ground ball pitcher, averaging a 57 percent ground ball rate over the last three years. He will throw his sinker nearly 70 percent of the time, averaging 98 mph, and will touch 100. I look at Loaisiga as more of a one-year flier who manager Carlos Mendoza knows well from his days as the Yankees’ bench coach.
LHP Andrew Chafin
If you listen to The Mets Pod, you know Chafin is an arm we have spoken about for about three years as a fit for the Mets. One area the Mets missed on in the 2024 season was properly replacing Brooks Raley after he underwent Tommy John surgery. They need to ensure that they have a reliable, steady left-handed reliever in their bullpen in 2025. Chafin posted a 3.16 ERA with the Tigers before being traded to the Rangers, where he had less success. He throws primarily a slider (46 percent usage) and sinker (38 percent usage), relying on hitters chasing and inducing weak contact. He has neutral splits for his career against both left-handed and right-handed hitters, though this year he had more reverse splits. In the era of the three-batter minimum, it is important that pitchers be able to get both handed hitters out and Chafin has shown the propensity to do that throughout his career. He could provide bullpen stability on likely a one-year deal.
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