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Boston Red Sox
2024 record: 81-81
Third place, AL East
Team ERA: 4.05 (16th in MLB)
Team OPS: .741 (7th in MLB)
What Went Right
The season started off on a surprisingly high note for the Red Sox as they headed into the All-Star break with the 9th-best record in baseball at 53-43. A lot of that had to do with new pitching coach Andrew Bailey and his work with the rotation. Boston’s de-emphasis on fastball became a major talking point around baseball and the rotation had a 3.63 ERA that was tied for 6th in baseball. While that production didn’t last, the Red Sox did get career-high innings totals from Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Brayan Bello. Houck finished with an elite season, posting a 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 20.7% strikeout rate. Bello and Crawford faded down the stretch, but both showed well enough at times to remain key pieces of a rotation that needs an ace.
Offensively, the Red Sox got typically elite production from Rafael Devers, whose season-long numbers took a hit while playing through a shoulder injury for the final month of the season. The Red Sox also hit a home run with the off-season trade for Tyler O’Neill, who batted .241/.336/.511 and led the team with 31 home runs. Jarren Duran also emerged as an All-Star, hitting .285/.342/.492 with 21 home runs, 111 runs scored, and 34 steals while rookies Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu played well above-average defense in the outfield while flashing offensive upside. While neither put up an eye-popping batting average, they tied for 8th among all rookies with 15 home runs, Rafaela was 8th among rookies in runs scored, while ABreu was 12th, Rafaela was 3rd in RBIs while Abreu was 10th, and Rafaela was 8th among rookie in stolen bases. Fellow rookie David Hamilton also flashed game-changing speed, leading all rookies with 33 stolen bases while filling in admirably for Trevor Story and likely cementing a role for himself as a bench infielder and pinch runner going forward.
What Went Wrong
The Red Sox really needed an ace at the top of their rotation, so it was a kick in the gut to see Chris Sale likely win the NL Cy Young for the Braves after the Red Sox traded him in the offseason for Vaughn Grissom. It was doubly troubling that Grissom battled multiple injuries during the year and hit just .190/.246/.219 in 31 games. All teams deal with injuries, but the Red Sox were hit hard by some key ones, having potential ace Lucas Giolito get hurt in spring training and then losing both Triston Casas and Trevor Story to months-long injuries at the start of the season. While both of those injuries hurt the overall offense, the injury to Story forced to Red Sox to shift around their defense, moving Rafaela from center field to shortstop, which led to a defense that was second worst in terms of errors and fielding percentage. In addition to their defense costing them countless runs, the bullpen failed to hold leads, finishing 24th on the season with a 4.39 ERA. They were even worse during the Red Sox’s second-half collapses, posting a 5.45 ERA, which was dead last in baseball. Masataka Yoshida was also a disappointment in his second season, proving to be such a poor defender that the Red Sox couldn’t put him in the field but also only hitting .280/.349/.415 with 10 home runs in 108 games. Lastly, for as good as Connor Wong was with the bat at times in 2024, he graded out as the third-worst catcher in baseball when it came to framing, according to Statcast.
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Fantasy Slants
– Rafael Devers will be a top-two-round pick in fantasy leagues again in 2025. He hit .272/.354/.516 with 28 home runs, 87 runs scored, 83 RBI, and three steals in 138 games despite playing through a shoulder injury. Jarren Duran will also likely be an early-round fantasy target based on the stats listed above. Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela should also be drafted in most formats based on the stats I outlined above. Both players are young, and we should expect some improvement as they adjust to life as an MLB regular. Rafaela in particular really wore down as the season went on, hitting .191 in 19 games in September with 25 strikeouts and just one home run. However, in 103 games from May 1st to September 1st, Rafaela hit .273/.303/.417 with 12 home runs, 50 runs scored, 46 RBI, and 13 steals. He’s always going to be a bit of a free-swinger, but he could also be a .270 hitter with 20/20 upside who plays every day thanks to elite defense in centerfield. That’s going to play in most fantasy formats.
– Triston Casas also continued to flash difference-making ability when he was healthy. The 24-year-old hit .241/.337/.462 in 63 games with 13 home runs, 28 runs scored, and 32 RBI. He spoke publicly about playing through significant pain when he made a return from his rib injury, and you could see it with his .224 average in September which came with a 32% strikeout rate. Casas still hits the ball incredibly hard with a 13.3% barrel rate last year, and while he may settle in as a .250-.260 hitter, he has 30+ home run upside while hitting in the middle of a lineup that is young and filled with promising talent. He’s not going to give you anything in the speed department, which will cap his fantasy upside, but he could be a solid 1B option in all formats if you choose to wait on drafting the position.
– Trevor Story is going to be the starting shortstop in Boston next season. I know they’ve had a lot of issues with him staying healthy, but he still has three more years on his contract and one more year before he can opt-out. He has been an underrated defender the last two seasons in Boston, posting an Outs Above Average of 8 in 2023 and 2 last year. The Red Sox defense was noticeably better with him at short, and his offensive game had taken a step forward before his injury. He posted a career-high walk rate and his best batting average since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. He also stole six bases in 26 games. Now, we’re obviously working with small sample sizes here, and Story hasn’t played more than 100 games since 2021, but if you need speed late in your drafts, he could still provide solid value at MIF in most formats.
– We covered most of the Red Sox starting pitchers of note above with Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford. All three are worth drafting in fantasy leagues based on the upside they flashed this season; yet, their inconsistencies will make them best suited as dart throws in the later portions of your draft. Crawford in particular really wore down with his career-high workload. He had a 3.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 24.3% strikeout rate in 114 innings in the first half of the season, but tired as the season went on, struggling with home runs and posting a 6.59 ERA in 69 innings after the All-Star break. You’d expect him to adjust more in his second full season as a starter, which could lead to better results and make him an intriguing late-round starting pitching option.
– The Red Sox bullpen will also look totally different in 2025. Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin are free agents, so the Red Sox will need to find a new closer and set-up man. While it’s possible that could come in free agency, the Red Sox did also sign both Liam Hendriks and Michael Fulmer to two-year deals before the 2024 season, which means both of them should be healthy at the start of 2025 and factor into the late-inning mix. Hendriks is obviously the favorite to assume closer duties given his past experience, but he will also be 36 years old and coming off a battle with cancer and multiple arms injuries, so he’s not exactly a sure thing. Yet, considering he’s making $6 million next year, you have to assume the Red Sox will give him a shot to close.
– Another name to consider as a late-round closer option is Justin Slaten. The 27-year-old Rule 5 pick was really good in his first season in Boston, posting a 2.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 26% strikeout rate. He has a strong fastball, slider, and curve combo that will work in the late innings and could be an option to close if Hendriks can’t. The Red Sox could also go back to Garrett Whitlock, who figures to return to the bullpen in 2025, and he was tremendous there for Boston in 2021 and 2022.
– Perhaps the biggest fantasy question we have for Boston in 2025 is which of their elite prospects will we see in the big leagues and how early will they debut? After the season, MLB Pipeline updated their Top 100 prospects, and the Red Sox have three inside the top 10 overall and four inside the top 25, all of whom finished the 2024 season in Triple-A. Roman Anthony, the 3rd-ranked prospect in baseball, figures to get the first crack at a big league job after hitting .291/.396/.498 across two levels in 2024 with 18 home runs, 93 runs scored, 65 RBI, and 21 steals in 119 games. The 20-year-old has been one of the fastest prospect risers over the last two seasons and could be an immediate five-category contributor. Another incredibly fast riser is INF/OF Kristian Campbell, who started the year in High-A and off all Top 100 prospects lists, but ended the season in Triple-A and as the 10th-ranked prospect in baseball. He hit .330/.439/.558 in 115 games across three levels with 20 home runs, 94 runs scored, 77 RBI, and 24 steals. His best bet is to battle for the starting second base job with Vaughn Grissom and David Hamilton.
– We’re unlikely to see 7th-ranked prospect Marcelo Mayer break camp with Boston since the Red Sox have Story, and Mayer ended the season on the injured list, but the 21-year-old may debut over the summer. The best bet to begin the season with the big league club may be catcher Kyle Teel. The 22-year-old hit .288/.386/.433 in 112 games across two levels in 2024 with 13 home runs, 88 runs scored, 78 RBI, and 12 steals. He has a plus arm, which the Red Sox can really use behind the plate, and his framing skills would make him an immediate upgrade on Connor Wong. Since Teel also has the speed to steal 10 bases at the MLB level, there is some solid five-category contribution that he could bring to the catcher position if he breaks camp with the team.
Key Free Agents
Kenley Jansen, Nick Pivetta, James Paxton, Chris Martin, Tyler O’Neill, Danny Jansen, Luis Garcia, Lucas Sims, Reese McGuire, Lucas Giolito (opt-out, $19 million contract), and Rob Refsnyder ($2.1 million club option).
Team Needs
Boston has been pretty upfront about what they need this off-season: a right-handed power hitter and a frontline starting pitcher. They also need to add depth to their bullpen, but with Hendriks, Fulmer, and Whitlock all coming back from injury, it seems unlikely they make a huge bullpen signing but instead make a couple of smaller ones. Since the Red Sox have so many left-handed hitting outfielders and middle infielders, there is a strong possibility the team will look to the trade market to find their starting pitcher rather than spend big money on somebody like Blake Snell or Jack Flaherty. It’s unclear if the team will find a taker for Masataka Yoshida since he has average power and can’t play the field, which means the Red Sox may need to part with Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu to get the quality of starter they want. They could also move middle infielders like David Hamilton or Enmanuel Valdez to make the trade even more enticing or pilfer from their highly-ranked farm system. Obviously, it’s a risk they’re willing to take since they have guys like Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell waiting in the wings. Every move the Red Sox have made, or not made, over the last three to four years has seemingly been building to the decision to go all-in on putting together a World Series contender once their top prospects came of age. That window may finally be open in 2025, which means the Red Sox could start pulling the levers now to get this train in motion.
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