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Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don reveals the key hitters — with depressed ADPs — he wants to draft this season.
Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers
Langford failed to live up to his lofty expectations last season, but he more than held his own with a 110 wRC+ as a rookie. Langford sported just a .702 OPS against right-handers, but he also turned into one of baseball’s best hitters during September, when he posted a .300/.386/.610 line and recorded a 180 wRC+. His 600 AB pace over that span was 48 homers, 42 steals, 150 runs scored and 120 RBI.
That was a small sample, and it’s often best to exercise caution when looking at September stats given the influx of minor league players during the final month of the season, but a strong finish can also be a signal a young player has figured it out. Langford’s swing changed during September, when he recorded his lowest average launch angle of any month last season (and when he led the American League in WAR).
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Langford is a former top-five pick who absolutely destroyed the minors. His mechanical adjustments in September made him look like the star many were expecting. The Rangers haven’t been overly aggressive on the base paths, but Globe Life Field has increased HR for RHB by 16% over the last three years (the fourth-most in MLB). Langford is slated to bat third in the Rangers’ lineup (between two lefties), and he only recently turned 23 years old. Some projections are extremely bullish, so Langford is a hitter to target in fantasy drafts.
Brent Rooker, OF, Athletics
Admittedly, Rooker’s profile looks like someone to avoid at first glance, especially given his massive leap in ADP (going in Round 6 or 7 of early drafts). He didn’t break out until age 28, and he’s now a 30-year-old coming off a career-best season who just got paid. Rooker’s .293 batting average came with a 28.8 K% and a .362 BABIP (the third highest), so it’s likely to regress.
But a closer look under the hood reveals a legit hitter who ranked sixth in Statcast’s Swing/Take leaderboard last year, sandwiched between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Yordan Álvarez. Rooker’s K% dropped to 24.1 after the All-Star break. He also has the ninth-most homers (69) over the last two seasons despite missing 42 games and playing in a park that’s decreased HR for RHB by 19% over the last three seasons.
The Oakland Coliseum ranks as the fifth worst for RHB over the last three years according to Park Factors. A’s hitters had a .280 BABIP at home last year. The Athletics will be moving to Sacramento in 2025, where they’ll share parks with their Triple-A affiliates. Sutter Health Park has played mostly neutral, but A’s hitters should benefit from their new climate and significantly smaller foul territory. The park also had a new batter’s eye installed to improve visibility.
Rooker had the fourth-highest wRC+ (171) and the fourth-most homers (24) on the road last season. He also had the third-most RBI (66) away from home on a team that finished bottom-five in runs scored. Even if his new home park is just neutral, it will be a big upgrade for Rooker, who remains OF eligible on Yahoo.
Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox
Casas had slugged six homers and was posting a 132 wRC+ over 22 games before tearing cartilage in his rib cage last season. The injury almost certainly contributed to his decrease in power once Casas eventually returned after missing nearly four months, but he should be 100% entering 2025. Casas still needs to prove he can stay healthy over a full season, but he can clearly hit. He’ll also benefit from batting third in Boston’s lineup and in Fenway Park, which is behind only Coors Field (and just barely) in Park Factors for LHB over the last three seasons. Red Sox hitters owned a .322 BABIP at home last year.
Casas’ Barrel% remained in the 90th percentile last season despite mostly playing through an injury, and OOPSY projects him to have more homers and RBI and the same 132 wRC+ as Freddie Freeman in 2025. Casas can easily finish as a top-five fantasy first baseman if health permits.
Michael Conforto, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Conforto hit a modest 20 homers last season, but it’s worth noting 85% of them came on the road. He had just three home runs and 15 RBI with an 83 wRC+ at home, but Conforto hit 17 homers and recorded 51 RBI with a 133 wRC+ on the road. It should be mentioned most players across sports perform better at home. But San Francisco’s Oracle Park decreased HR for LHB a whopping 27% last season. Meanwhile, Dodger Stadium has increased HR for LHB by 16% over the last three years. In other words, Conforto went from a bottom-three home park for left-handed power to a borderline top-five one with the move to Los Angeles. Last year’s .237 batting average was accompanied by a .257 expected BA, and his upgraded environment can’t be understated.
Conforto may hit lower in L.A.’s lineup, but it’s on an offense that scored 149 more runs than the Giants last season. And while Conforto could lose some at-bats getting replaced defensively later in games, his ability to hit lefties should keep him out of a platoon. Conforto is a hitter to target outside the top 250 picks.
Nolan Jones, OF, Colorado Rockies
Jones was a fantasy bust last season, but a lingering back injury was a major reason why. He’s one season removed from posting a 132 wRC+ while going 20/20 over just 367 at-bats. A healthy Jones could hit cleanup in the Rockies’ lineup, and Coors Field remains the best hitter’s park in baseball (for both lefties and righties). Coors Field has increased run scoring an MLB-high 25% over the last three seasons, when it’s also decreased strikeouts by 11%.
Rockies’ hitters had a collective .332 BABIP last year, which was 10 points higher than the next best. Jones’ 2023 also included monster numbers in Triple-A, and his legit combination of power/speed offers major fantasy upside.
Jones is a strong bounce-back candidate, so he’s someone to target at a greatly reduced ADP (going well after pick 200 in early drafts).
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