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When we talk about sports, we talk a lot about a player’s “athletic prime,” but what does that mean and why does it matter?
Quite simply, an athlete’s prime is an age range in which they perform at their best. Research has supported the existence of an athletic prime, and while it differs in every sport, Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster notes that a baseball player’s athletic prime is between the ages of 26 and 29. While some athletes will have their best seasons before or after this range, research indicates that this is when muscle development, flexibility, regenerative health, and many other factors lead to a baseball player being in their peak physical condition.
So what do we do with that information: only draft players between the ages of 26 and 29?
Not quite; however, I thought it would be interesting to see which hitters in their athletic prime could be in for mini breakout seasons of sorts. After sorting by age to create an initial leaderboard, I looked at hitters who produced above-league-average value in a few of the categories I like the most when it comes to hitters. Those categories are: walk rate, strikeout rate, chase rate, barrel rate, swinging strike rate, and contact rate. The goal of this endeavor is to find hitters who are entering their prime years who last year proved to have above-average plate discipline, contact rates, and quality of contact. By doing that, we can hopefully land on some hitters who could be in for breakout seasons in 2025.
To do that, I also removed players who we already think of as top-tier talents for fantasy baseball, so that included: Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Pete Alonso, Willy Adames, Ozzie Albies, William Contreras, Adley Rutschman, Cody Bellinger, and Anthony Santander.
I also made a few tough cuts on players who were close to hitting all the thresholds. Ian Happ and his teammate Michael Busch missed with their swinging strike rate, strikeout rate, and contact rate, so while they were close, they’re off the list. Shea Langeliers and Ryan Jeffers also had poor contact numbers, but given that catcher isn’t filled with many elite hitters, they’re still solid targets in your drafts. Alec Bohm met the criteria for a lot of the categories, but he didn’t walk enough or barrel the ball enough, so I cut him at the last minute. Victor Robles missed the mark with both his walk rate and barrel rate, so I left him off. Jose Miranda is another noteworthy one who could be in for a solid season but had just a 4.2% walk rate and 5.9% barrel rate, so I had to leave him off for the purposes of this list.
HITTERS MEETING “BREAKOUT” CRITERIA FOR 2025
Vinnie Pasquantino – 1B, Royals
After a rough start to the 2024 season, Pasquantino was rolling from May 1st on, slashing .276/.316/.461 with 15 home runs and 83 RBI in 102 games before fracturing his thumb at the end of August. He also saw a huge power spike in August, hitting seven home runs in 26 games in part due to a 50.5% pull rate over that month. The 27-year-old has always had elite plate discipline and posts strong exit velocities which will likely always allow him to hit for a high batting average; however, his fly ball rates are slightly above average, and even in that hot August, he had a 50% groundball rate but a nearly 20% HR/FB rate which seems unsustainable. Add to that the fact that Pasquantion plays in a home park that ranks 29th for left-handed power, according to Statcast park factors, and it’s hard to give him more than 25 home runs in a full season despite his contact profile. Still, those 25 home runs will likely come with a .270 or better average and solid counting stats in the middle of a decent lineup, so that could make Pasquantino a top-10 first baseman this season.
Lars Nootbaar – OF, Cardinals
I feel like we’ve been waiting for the Nootbaar breakout for a few years now, but injuries limited him to just 405 plate appearances in 2024. When he was on the field, he hit .244/.342/.417 with 12 home runs and seven steals which hinted a little at what we can expect from him. His 12.8% walk rate last season was the highest of anybody on this list, and his chase rate was the second-lowest, so there is no doubting Nootbaar’s understanding of the strike zone. He also tied Pasquantino for the lowest swinging strike rate of anybody on the list and was second to Pasquantino in contact rate while showing a higher max exit velocity and barrel rate. All of that should make us feel excited for a breakout from Nootbaar.
However, his 23% flyball rate in 2024 calls into question what kind of power upside we might be looking at, and his career 27.4% flyball rate suggests that this might just be who he is. Busch Stadium is not great for left-handed power, so this might be a calculated approach from Nootbaar, but it means that even a breakout season might come with just 20 home runs. It could also have a .260 average and 12 stolen bases with an elite on-base percentage, so there are leagues where Nootbaar could be valuable if we finally get that peak season. Yet, the Cardinals’ lineup is also undergoing an overhaul, so the counting stats may be just average, which makes Nootbaar a fine depth outfielder for fantasy but maybe not a hitter we want to aggressively target as a “sleeper” or “breakout” pick.
Spencer Horwitz – 1B/2B, Pirates
Not only did Horwitz clear the thresholds in all six categories, but he was near top-end production in five of them. Now, some of that certainly has to do with his smaller sample size of MLB at-bats last year, but he’s also an elite contact hitter with a tremendous feel for the strike zone. He uses the whole field and doesn’t lift the ball much, so he won’t likely be a source of many home runs. He also doesn’t steal bases, so his value is limited to just three offensive categories, but it’s hard to find many problems with his approach and an 8% barrel rate tells us that he could potentially add more power, except that his move to Pittsburgh also now puts him in one of the worst home parks for left-handed power. He should play nearly every day at first base, which could allow him to post 120 Runs+RBI paired with a good batting average, so that can make him a deep-league target at MI or CI as long as you don’t need steals or much power.
Carlos Correa – SS, Twins
Like Horwitz, Correa surpassed the threshold in all categories and posted near top-end production in five of them. Also like Horwitz, Correa played in fewer games last season, starting just 86 games due to injury. However, he has yet to post a strikeout rate over 22.6% or a walk rate under 10.2% since coming to Minnesota, and his barrel rate hasn’t dipped below 9.1% in a full MLB season since 2018. The interesting change for Correa in 2024 was that he chased outside of the zone far less than in years past but was more aggressive in the zone, with a higher zone swing rate than any full MLB season since 2016. I know he gets no love in fantasy circles because he’s a middle infielder who doesn’t steal bases, but if this approach change carries over, Correa could hit .280 with 20 home runs in a solid lineup, and that makes him a great MIF target if you have your speed elsewhere.
Jonathan India – 2B, Royals
India was healthy again in 2024, playing over 120 games for the first time since 2021. He also posted a career-low strikeout rate, career-high walk rate, and career-high zone contact rate, which helped fuel his strong season. While all of that is great, much of his overall fantasy value came from batting leadoff for a good lineup in a great home ballpark, so his move to Kansas City may sap some of that value. Despite having a higher than league-average barrel rate, India posted just a 31% fly ball rate and has below-average exit velocities with just a 16th-percentile average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives. That should make it hard for him to post more than 10 home runs in Kauffman Stadium. Considering he’s never stolen more than 14 bases in a season or hit above .270, he could be a .260 hitter with 10 HR and 10 SB. He should post solid run totals in a decent lineup but that profiles as more of a deeper league MIF target.
Nathaniel Lowe – 1B, Nationals
Honestly, I’m surprised Lowe qualified for this list, and, if we’re being technical about it, he really didn’t since his 5.7% barrel rate was below the league average. However, I wanted to keep him on here because his 12.6% walk rate, 23.9% chase rate, 8.1% swinging strike rate, and 81.2% contact rate were all among the top of any player on this list. His 111.8 mph max exit velocity is also not great, but it’s better than Josh Naylor, Spencer Steer, and Lane Thomas, so it’s certainly not a weakness. The issue is that Lowe plays first base where you generally want a hitter who can give you elite power production, and he hasn’t posted a flyball rate above 31% since his rookie season and has had a sub-30% pull rate in each of the last two seasons. Considering Globe Life Field ranks 7th for left-handed power, according to Statcast park factors, and Nationals Park ranks 15th, he’s going to be in a slightly worse park and a much worse lineup in 2025, which doesn’t give us tons of optimism for fantasy purposes.
The glass-half-full way to look at it is that Lowe is in a slightly better park overall and will play every day in the middle of the batting order, so he could give you a .260-.270 average with 15-18 home runs and 130 Runs+RBI as a baseline for his production. That’s not a player you want playing 1B for you, but he could be a solid CI in most formats. If his new organization can convince him to shift his approach a little bit and try to pull the ball more, he has the foundational skills to see a power boost like he did in 2022 when he pulled the ball 33% of the time and hit 27 home runs. If we see an approach change in the spring, it might be worth taking some chances on Lowe.
Jonathan Aranda – INF, Rays
In his 32 Triple-A games in 2024, Aranda hit .237 with seven home runs and a 32.6% strikeout rate, which is significantly worse than his typical minor league season. When he finally got MLB at-bats at the end of the season, he posted an impressive 16.5% barrel rate and showed improved plate discipline from his MLB at-bats in 2023. Aranda has good hard-hit rates and top-tier exit velocities when he gets the ball in the air, but he also posted a 49% groundball rate with the Rays. He pulls the ball often and, historically, has made a good deal of contact, so if Aranda can cut back on his groundball rate, he could hit 15+ home runs with a usable batting average. The issue will be how the Rays get him into the lineup since he can’t play anywhere in the field other than first base and Yandy Diaz is pretty entrenched there. Aranda could get regular at-bats as the designated hitter, but he’ll likely sit against lefties and Eloy Jimenez also appears on this list (more on that later), so there’s a chance that Aranda doesn’t get more than 400 plate appearances, which makes him a bit of a risky bet in fantasy.
Pavin Smith – 1B/OF, Diamondbacks
As of this publication, Smith is the favorite to handle the designated hitter at-bats against right-handed pitchers, filling the void left when Joc Pederson signed with the Rangers. Given the overall strength of Arizona’s lineup, Smith getting a chance for 450 or more plate, appearances is certainly something that should intrigue us. So should the 14.7% barrel rate that Smith put up last year.
He has elite plate discipline, rarely expanding the strike zone or chasing pitches he can’t do damage on. Of course, that’s mainly against right-handed pitchers, and the Diamondbacks know that. Last season, 85% of Smith’s at-bats came against right-hand pitching, and he hit .270/.348/.547 with nine home runs and a .896 OPS in those 158 plate appearances. While that’s a small sample size, that’s a pretty strong indication of what Smith is capable of doing in a strong side platoon. The lineup around him will also be good, and he should push over 400 plate appearances in that role, which will give him value in deeper formats. However, what keeps him from a full-on breakout is that Chase Field is the worst park in baseball for left-handed power and Smith will be removed mid-game when left-handed relievers come in so it makes it a bit hard to roster him unless you’re in a daily moves format. However, in those formats and on-base percentage formats, he could be a good late-round target in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts.
Eloy Jiménez – UT, Rays
Yes, Jiménez’s walk rate and swinging strike rate should have disqualified him from the list and his overall contact rate was below the threshold, but I kept him on here because I was shocked to find out that he had just a 20% strikeout rate with an 8% barrel rate last year with a 112.71 max exit velocity. His 77% contact rate also isn’t great, but it’s basically league average and not much worse than Seiya Suzuki, so I felt it was important to highlight him here, even if I forced him on.
We know that injuries have played a big role in Jiménez’s fall from his 2019 peak during his rookie year. He has played over 98 games in a season just once since then and was a shell of himself in 2024 in 98 games with the White Sox and Orioles. Yet, some intriguing changes are happening. His contact rates have gone up considerably, his swinging strike rates have fallen, and he continues to post strong exit velocities. The issue last year was that his fly ball rate was 3rd percentile in baseball, and he pulled the ball at a below-average mark. Oh, well, wouldn’t you look at where he signed in the off-season? Going to a team that pushes its players to pull flyballs. The Rays will also play their home games in a minor league stadium in Florida where the ball should be flying in the summer, so perhaps Jiménez can find some deep league value if the Rays revamp his approach much like they did for Isaac Paredes.
Gavin Lux – 2B, Reds
Lux is another player who barely made it on here. His strikeout rate was 0.3% over the threshold, which I let slide, but his 6% barrel rate is pretty clearly below the mark we wanted these hitters to have. However, I wanted to cover Lux for this article because he’s moving to Cincinnati and hitting in Great American Ballpark, which is the best park in baseball for left-handed power and the third-best park for left-handed hitters overall, according to Statcast park factors. Now, Dodger Stadium is the second-best park for left-handed power, so we shouldn’t expect a major power bump for Lux, but Great American Ballpark is significantly better for hits, doubles, and runs.
In 2024, Lux had slightly above-league-average contact numbers in part because he is an aggressive hitter, who makes a lot of contact outside of the zone. That may hurt his barrel rate, but Lux is a groundball and line drive hitter who uses the middle and pull side of the field well, so he can expand the zone and remain mostly effective. His exit velocities will never be great, and I wouldn’t predict more than 15 home runs, even if he becomes an everyday player, but his approach could get him back to being a .270 hitter in his new ballpark. That will likely come with 10-15 home runs, but the Reds stole the third most bases per game in 2024, so Lux could potentially swipe 10 bases as well in 2024, which would make him a solid deep league MIF target; however, he needs to win a job and keep it in a very crowded Reds infield, which makes him a risky pick.
Trevor Larnach – OF, Twins
Max Kepler signing with the Phillies and Alex Kirilloff retiring means that Trevor Larnach has the inside track to be the starting left fielder on the Twins in 2025. Now, the Twins are perhaps the most platoon-heavy team in baseball and Larnach has a career .203/.262/.308 slash line in 172 at-bats against lefties with a 35.3% strikeout rate, so we should expect him to be removed pretty much whenever a lefty comes into the game. However, last year against right-handed pitchers, he slashed .261/.342/.441 with 15 home runs, a 9.9% barrel rate, an 85.8% zone contact rate, and a 12.2% swinging strike rate in 377 plate appearances.
That was with his flyball rate dropping 9% in 2024. However, we saw Larnach adjust that as the season went on. He had a 35.7% fly ball rate in the first half, which led to nine home runs in 218 plate appearances with a .738 OPS. He raised his fly ball rate to 39.5% in the second half and hit six home runs in 182 plate appearances with a .811 OPS. That’s a pretty sizable OPS jump and even though he struck out more in the second half, a .272 average and 24% strikeout rate is not scaring you off. The lack of competition for his role means that Larnach should see around 500 plate appearances in 2025 which could lead to a .260 average with 20 home runs and some chip-in steals while hitting in the middle of the batting order. He’ll be more valuable in daily moves leagues, but he could be a great later-round pick in fantasy drafts.
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