Fantasy Baseball: Should you draft or pass on these 6 polarizing hitters?

Fantasy baseball is a game of opinions. We’re not always going to agree, and that’s good. That’s why we play this game for six months a year.

Last week, we tackled some polarizing pitchers. Today we look at some polarizing hitters.

Shohei Ohtani (Util), Dodgers, & Ronald Acuña Jr. (OF), Braves

I have Ohtani on my fade list, but see it for what it’s worth — a very mild fade. In a world that tabs Ohtani as the automatic No. 1 pick, I prefer him at 2 or 3. The steals from last year are a horrible bet to repeat. It’s not worth it to Ohtani’s health maintenance. He never stole more than 26 bases before 2024, and part of the spike last year was the novelty of the 50-50 chase.

Ohtani and the Dodgers are smart. It’s not about beating the Rockies or the Reds in May, it’s about being prepared to defend the ring in October.

My call: Regression is not fun, but it sure feels inevitable. So there that is. And don’t forget how often Ohtani was hurt in Anaheim. The Dodgers are ready for six months of load management. They’re already in the playoffs. That’s not a scenario for someone I can take first overall.

On Acuña, he’s also going to curb the running — and he openly admits it. You know the rule on player and team quotes — be careful with the sunshine stuff, but believe every negative thing they tell you. That’s where the truth serum is.

My call: Acuña’s had two major injuries in his career and for preservation, the bags need to be traded in. Oh, he’ll run some. But given that he won’t be ready Opening Day and he’s already talking about maintenance and game-changes needed, I won’t touch the market price of a low-30s ADP.

Kyle Tucker, OF, Cubs

Look, Tucker has always been great since he became a regular. But last year was going to be his signature year, his Sgt. Pepper season. Just about any stat will get you to the same conclusion, but let’s use the 181 OPS+ as the back-of-napkin illustration. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani beat it, among league qualifiers. No one else did.

So Tucker’s “all grownsed up now,” as they say at the Apollo. But now he’s on the Cubs, not the Astros. My friend Gene McCaffrey had a great take — an open question — about Tucker and this curious trade:

Tucker’s always been a high-percentage stealer but maybe he’s another hitting star who decides to bag it. Or maybe 2024 was an aberration after the injury, I don’t know. He’s playing for his next contract, which matters to some. I’ll admit I worry a bit on guys after they receive the big paydays, especially if the team context changes (Colton and the Wolfman got on this early and they’ve made a mint off those fades). But basically everyone is trying. It’s not like Tucker ever looked half-committed out there.

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My call: So, I’m afraid to draft Tucker and I’m afraid to not draft him. Maybe the Cubs are my own personal version of a scary movie, I’m always expecting something bad to happen. That is not a tangible reason, I know. I still pine for what six months of Kyle Tucker 2024 would have added up to.

Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox

The funny thing is, the 2024 breakout was always hiding in plain sight. He just needed a full season of commitment. The slash lines from the last two years are nearly identical. The work on the bases, same stuff. The power seemed to bloom (13 more homers), but his slugging only bumped 10 points. When career years happen in the early 20s, we say “To the moon!” When they pop in the later 20s, we get suspicious.

My call: I suspect the best approach is to ask “Who is Duran this year?” and not chase Duran 2024. I don’t think he’s a massive overpay, just a mild one with an ADP in the low 20s. The park is a gift and the lineup looks delightful. Boston might even be the divisional favorites given the awful spring the Yankees are having. But I think the market has slightly overreacted, so Duran is another mild fade for me.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Phillies

When I was examining outfielders around the holidays, Castellanos struck me as the most obvious fade in the world. The career arc is moving downward, and while player growth and development isn’t always linear, skill deterioration almost always is. Now it’s an age-33 season. Alas, a lot of industry folks I respect are picking Castellanos as the boring-vet value play, and while I don’t bang the drum for the Ibañez All-Stars as much as I used to, they’re playing to my emotions.

My call: I drafted Castellanos once this year, just in case they’re right. I’ll fade him the rest of the spring, just in case I’m right. At least the park and the lineup provide buoyancy.

Michael Toglia, 1B/OF, Rockies

He’s not the biggest name on this list but he might fit the conceit of the column the best. Toglia conked 21 homers in 116 games, we can’t unsee that. He also struck out 147 times and hit .218, we can’t unsee that either. His home/road splits were strange, as he hit 17 of his homers away from Coors and had a higher OPS on the road. The Rockies should just leave Toglia alone for six months and see what they’ve got, but back to my guy McCaffrey, who once said “Colorado is a club that can’t wait to get its best team off the field.”

That’s an elegant way of saying “impatient.”

First base used to be a fantasy fun zone. It’s become trickier in recent years. You better look at the bottom half of the first base pool and find someone you like. If it’s not Toglia, maybe it’s Tyler Soderstrom or Ryan Mountcastle. How can Carlos Santana keep producing at his age? Soderstrom is my favorite of these guys at the current market, but I did target Toglia for a best-ball draft, expecting a volatile profile but ultimately a good power line by the end of the year.

My call: The high-strikeout, high-fly ball hitters have the biggest peaks and valleys. We’ll see if Colorado’s smart enough to let Toglia work through it. It’s not like he’s blocking the next Todd Helton. See what you’ve got here. The same could be said for fantasy managers, with his ADP past pick 200.