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Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don identifies which hitters aren’t getting the ADP (average draft position) they deserve. He also examined the pitching landscape.
Hitters being drafted too low
Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (No. 12 overall ADP vs. my No. 6)
It’s possible Carroll’s shoulder troubles return, but he didn’t have any issues last season. He looked especially healthy down the stretch, when Carroll posted a .935 OPS with 13 homers and 14 steals over his final 45 games.
Just for fun, his 600-AB pace over that season-ending (and admittedly arbitrary endpoint) pace would be: .269-154-46-116-49.
Of course, Carroll struggled mightily over the first four months-plus, but the late power surge helped ease shoulder concerns.
Carroll is one season removed from hitting 25 homers and stealing 54 bases with a 132 wRC+ as a 22-year-old. He owns 96th percentile Sprint Speed and is due for regression at the plate in 2025. He should be more comfortable while playing solely right field, where he fared much better last season. Attacking steals is important in fantasy drafts, and Carroll is projected to swipe 40+ this year. Moreover, Chase Field is tied for the sixth-best hitter’s park over the last three seasons.
Carroll should be a borderline top-five pick, but he’s been going around pick 12 in Yahoo drafts.
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Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers (No. 60 overall ADP vs. my No. 37)
Langford failed to live up to his lofty expectations last season, but he more than held his own with a 110 wRC+ as a rookie. Langford sported just a .702 OPS against right-handers, but he also turned into one of baseball’s best hitters in September, when he posted a .300/.386/.610 line and recorded a 180 wRC+. His 600-AB pace over that span was 48 homers, 42 steals, 150 runs scored and 120 RBI.
That was a small sample, and it’s often best to exercise caution when looking at September stats given the influx of minor-league players during the final month of the season, but a strong finish can also signal a young player has figured it out. Langford’s swing changed during September when he recorded his lowest average launch angle of any month last season (and when he led the American League in WAR).
Langford is a former top-five pick who absolutely destroyed the minors. His mechanical adjustments in September made him look like the star many were expecting. The Rangers haven’t been overly aggressive on the base paths, but Globe Life Field has increased HR for RHB by 16% over the past three years (the fourth-most in MLB). Langford is slated to bat third in the Rangers’ lineup (between two lefties), and he only recently turned 23 years old. He suffered a mild oblique injury last week that shouldn’t affect his Opening Day status, so Langford looks undervalued at draft tables. He very easily could be a first-round pick in 2026.
Oneil Cruz, SS/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (No. 61 overall ADP vs. my No. 38)
Cruz finally showed he could stay healthy over a full season last year, and he produced a 20/20 campaign. While fantasy managers may have wanted even more, Cruz showed real growth at the plate. He still strikes out too much, but Cruz improved dramatically against left-handers; he had a 53.2 K% and a 46 wRC+ versus southpaws during 2022 (he missed most of 2023), but Cruz sported a 30.5 K% and an 84 wRC+ against lefties last year. Cruz was in the 97th percentile or better in Bat Speed, average exit velocity, max exit velocity, Hard-Hit% and Barrell%. He was in the 96th percentile in xwOBAcon.
Cruz hit .277 and posted a 125 wRC+ after the All-Star break last season, when he also lowered his K% 5.5 points and raised his BB rate by 3.6%. He’s still getting better.
Cruz is just 26 years old and should benefit from a full-time move to the outfield in 2025. He’s going 20+ picks too late in Yahoo drafts.
Jasson Domínguez, OF, New York Yankees (No. 159 ADP vs. my No. 123)
Domínguez held his own as a 21-year-old in the majors after tearing through the minors last season (while returning from Tommy John surgery). He’s racked up six home runs and six stolen bases over just 87 career ABs in the majors, so Domínguez’s fantasy upside is huge. Yankee Stadium has boosted homers an AL-high 19% over the last three seasons, and Domínguez is locked into a regular role with Juan Soto moving across New York.
In fact, Domínguez is a candidate to bat leadoff in 2025, especially given Anthony Volpe’s career .288 OBP. OOPSY projects Domínguez to hit 21 homers and steal 28 bases while missing 25+ games. He should be going at least three rounds higher in fantasy drafts.
Hitters being drafted too high
Ketel Marte, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks (No. 26 overall ADP vs. my No. 48)
Marte now carries a near top-25 ADP after coming off a career-best season, so proceed with caution. He hasn’t reached double-digit stolen bases since 2019 (when he had 10), and he’s missed an average of 34 games over the last four seasons. Marte was legitimately awesome in 2024, posting a 151 wRC+ that ranked top-10 in baseball. But he owns a career 118 wRC+, and OOPSY projects Marte to come back down to 25 home runs in 2025 (over an optimistic 147 games played).
Marte is due for regression at the plate, and he doesn’t run much. His Yahoo ADP was outside 100 in 2024, and he’ll now be 31 years old. Fade Marte’s ADP.
Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros (No. 36 overall ADP vs. my No. 64)
Altuve is a rock-solid fantasy player, but a borderline third-round pick is too early. Altuve reached his most plate appearances (682) last year since 2016, yet it still resulted in relatively modest counting stats. The compiling helped his fantasy line, but Altuve showed signs of decline at the plate, which is more concerning entering his age-35 season.
Altuve will also be learning a new position with his move to left field. THE BAT X projects Altuve to go .258-79-17-67-15 over 150+ games, which would be a reach as a near third-round pick in Yahoo drafts.
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