Over the last month, as the Mets have started to gel and mostly erased the hole they dug for themselves when they fell 11 games under .500 on May 29, they have put themselves firmly in the National League Wild Card race.
Entering play on Wednesday, the Mets are 1.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot (though they have two fewer losses than the Padres, who hold that spot) and 2.0 games back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot.
The top spot is currently held by the Braves, and doesn’t figure to be in play.
As recently as the middle of last week, there were nine teams within 1.5 games of the top two spots. But things have gotten a bit clearer and more spread out since.
Among the recent changes:
– The Reds have gone 3-7 over their last 10 games to fall 3.5 games back of the third Wild Card
– The Cubs cooled off (the Mets recently took two of three from them) and are now 4.0 back of the third spot
– The Cardinals and Padres have gotten hot along with the Mets. The Cards have won four in a row, and the Padres are 6-1 over their last seven games
To be clear, the Reds and Cubs are still very much in the hunt, the Giants have the talent to remain in the mix, and the Pirates — with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones atop the rotation — are not to be counted out.
But it seems that, along with the Mets, there are three other teams that might be emerging as the top contenders for the second and third Wild Card spots.
Let’s discuss those teams, and the X-factors that could be separators in the race…
The Cards have had a strange season, much like the Mets.
St. Louis was 15-24 on May 11, but has caught fire since. And during their hot stretch, the weird thing is that they’ve struggled against some bad teams (including the Rockies and Marlins) while sweeping the Orioles and taking a series from the Red Sox.
The Cardinals, who enter play on Tuesday with a -30 run differential, are the only team in MLB that has a negative run differential and winning record. That means it’s fair to believe they’ve been a bit lucky, and that things are going to even out.
Also of note is that their two best hitters — Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt — have had poor seasons to this point.
Arenado has a .686 OPS, and Goldschmidt’s OPS is .662.
On one hand, it’s hard to see the Cards being contenders if their two stars don’t turn things around. On the other, it’s easy to see them taking off if their two stars begin hitting like they always have.
Padres
San Diego, with wheeling-and-dealing president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, remains one of the most interesting teams in baseball.
They are oozing with talent — the addition of Luis Arraez earlier this season in a trade with the rebuilding Marlins has been huge — and have a high-octane offense, even with Manny Machado off to a slow start.
That offense just took a hit, though, with Fernando Tatis Jr. landing on the IL due to a stress reaction in his thigh bone that Tatis deemed “something serious.”
Pitching-wise, the Pads are led by Dylan Cease in the rotation and Robert Suarez in the bullpen. But they’re currently without Yu Darvish (who recently had a setback) and Joe Musgrove (who is expected to miss a significant amount of time due to a bone spur in his elbow).
San Diego also has a really tough schedule coming up, with series against the Red Sox, Mariners, Braves, Guardians, Orioles, and Dodgers in the next month-plus.
Like the Cardinals, it’s easy to see the Padres taking off if they get healthy and Machado rounds into form. But they also have serious bust potential — especially if Darvish and Musgrove take a long time to return.
The team that represented the NL in the World Series last year has to be respected.
Arizona is getting a huge year from Ketel Marte, Christian Walker has been very good, and Joc Pederson has been a revelation — with an .898 OPS.
But the deep struggles of Corbin Carroll, who has a .623 OPS after last season’s Rookie of the Year campaign, are limiting Arizona’s upside right now.
There are also serious question marks in the rotation.
Offseason signing Jordan Montgomery has been brutal so far, with a 5.71 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, and Merrill Kelly is on the 60-day IL due to a shoulder injury. Ace Zac Gallen, who has been out due to a hamstring injury, is nearing a return.
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Looking at the remaining strength of schedule, the Mets could be in a good spot to pounce.
Of all the teams in the Wild Card race, the Mets have the easiest remaining schedule when factoring in the current winning percentage of their opponents (and fourth-easiest in all of MLB).
The Padres have the eighth-easiest schedule, while the D-backs (sixth-hardest) and Cards (fifth-hardest) face much tougher opponents.
Following the conclusion of the Subway Series and a three-game series with the suddenly-surging Astros over the weekend at Citi Field, the Mets will enter perhaps the easiest 18-game stretch they’ll play all season. It looks like this:
At the Nationals for four games
At the Pirates for four games
Home for the Nats for three games
Home for the Rockies for three games
At the Marlins for four games
The Nats have started to fade a bit, and were swept by the Mets the last time the teams played.
The aforementioned Pirates have a strong 1-2 punch in the rotation, but a weak offense.
The Marlins and Rockies are abysmal.
Put it all together, and the Mets have a chance to continue to make some serious headway while cementing their status as legitimate playoff contenders.
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