Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki to be posted, and every MLB team is going to want him

Roki Sasaki is officially coming to MLB.

The Chiba Lotte Marines announced Saturday in Japan that they will post the flame-throwing phenom for a move to the U.S., where he now looms as one of the biggest names of the offseason. It’s unclear when the process will officially begin, but MLB teams will have 45 days to woo Sasaki after he’s posted.

The Marines included comments from their general manager, manager and the 23-year-old Sasaki himself in the announcement. Sasaki’s comment on his longtime interest in playing in MLB, as translated by Yakyu Cosmopolitan on X:

In four seasons with the Marines, Sasaki posted a career 2.02 ERA with 524 strikeouts in 414 2/3 innings across four seasons.

Roki Sasaki’s move to MLB is a financially curious one

The move was widely speculated but not necessarily expected, for one major reason. Because he is younger than 25 years old, Sasaki will not be able to negotiate a high-price MLB contract like his countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto did to the tune of $325 million last offseason.

Instead, Sasaki will only be able to negotiate a signing bonus out of MLB teams’ international bonus pools, which topped out at a little over $7 million this year. After signing, his status will be similar to any other prospect, going through six years of pre-arbitration and arbitration salaries before he can reach free agency. It’s the same process Shohei Ohtani went through when he came over to MLB before the 2018 season, and Sasaki can only hope it ends with his own nine-figure payday.

The bigger question is why the Marines would post Sasaki. NPB teams receive a portion of the money a posted player of their’s receives in MLB. Had Sasaki been posted two years from now, when he is 25, the Marines could have received a figure similar to the $50.625 million the Orix Buffaloes landed through posting Yamamoto. Instead, they will get a relative pittance.

Japanese baseball observers have speculated that Sasaki has some sort of side agreement to compel the Marines into posting him, which could be a dangerous precedent for MLB teams. Whether or not that’s true, the day many MLB teams have been anticipating is finally here.

You can read more about Sasaki’s pre-posting situation here.

Who are the favorites for Roki Sasaki?

Sasaki’s posting will see a process similar to what Ohtani had, where every MLB team tries to pitch him with money as a relatively minor factor. Instead, Sasaki will likely choose his team based on what they can offer him from a development and comfort standpoint.

It should be a competitive process, but one team has been repeatedly said to have a leg up for Sasaki should he ever be posted: the Los Angeles Dodgers. Here is a list of advantages the defending champions have in their pursuit of a promising young Japanese player:

• $2.5 million left in their international bonus pool for 2024, the most of any MLB team

• two of Sasaki’s Samurai Japan teammates in Ohtani and Yamamoto

• a track record of 12 straight playoff berths and the most recent World Series title

• a reputation for superior development and game-planning with pitchers

• a stated interest in using a six-man rotation next year, which would be close to Japan’s once-per-week cadence

• a favorable time zone for Japanese viewership

• the largest following of any team in Japan thanks to Ohtani’s untouched fame and past success with the trailblazing Hideo Nomo

• the largest Japanese population in the continental United States

Other MLB teams have Japanese players and/or the promise of competitiveness, but it’s hard to see any presenting a more natural fit. Then again, Sasaki might not be interested in playing in Ohtani and Yamamoto’s shadow, or could have any number of reasons for picking another team.

The decision will ultimately come from Sasaki himself. So don’t go photoshopping him in a Dodgers uniform just yet.

Why is Roki Sasaki so hyped?

There is no starting pitcher in the world who throws as hard as Sasaki, and that’s only part of his appeal.

Sasaki is a pitcher who can not just touch, but sit above 100 when fully healthy. Stateside baseball fans got to see it when he showed up to the 2023 World Baseball Classic and threw 26 of 29 pitches faster than 100 mph.

That’s one elite pitch for Sasaki. The other is one of the nastiest splitters in the world. Those are the two pitches Sasaki used in the game where many American fans first heard his name: a 19-strikeout perfect game in 2022.

Sasaki also worked on his slider this year with encouraging results, and any MLB team that signs him will likely want him to continue working on developing additional offerings.

Despite his internationally elite stuff, there’s a very good chance Sasaki will need some time before he develops into the ace so many highlight reels are promising. Yamamoto was a far more polished pitcher when he was posted, and Sasaki had issues this year with arm discomfort, which caused him to miss a few starts, and diminished velocity. His 2.35 ERA in 2024 was a career worst.

But make no mistake. The MLB offseason just saw the fall of an enormous domino, with another coming once Sasaki makes his choice.