Juan Soto, the name on everyone’s mind to begin a fascinating Phillies offseason

Juan Soto, the name on everyone’s mind to begin a fascinating Phillies offseason originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

It didn’t take after the final out of the World Series Wednesday night for Juan Soto to be asked about his upcoming free agency.

“I don’t know what’s the teams that are going to come after me,” Soto said to reporters after his Yankees lost to the Dodgers. “But definitely, I’ll be open to this and every single team. I don’t have any doors closed or anything like that. I’m gonna be available for all 30 teams.”

Agent Scott Boras had to be happy with that answer, but he and Soto have known for a while now that a contract surpassing $400 million is realistic and one approaching $500 million might be as well.

Soto just turned 26 on Saturday. He’s been a stud everyday player in the majors since 2018 yet is still younger than Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh.

Soto’s Hall-of-Fame track, age and the idea that he may only be entering his prime will probably result in the second richest contract in baseball history, behind only Shohei Ohtani’s heavily deferred $700 million.

Phillies?

Don’t hold your breath.

Soto would be the perfect offensive addition to the Phils or any other contender, but that’s just it: The competition will be fierce. First and foremost, it would be a colossal failure for Yankees ownership and GM Brian Cashman to allow Soto to walk. A storied franchise with the financial means to sign or re-sign anyone would not only become much worse on the field but lose confidence from a fanbase that’s seen good teams fall short for 15 straight years.

Soto was the key figure in the Yankees’ one-year transformation from 82-80 to American League champion. He hit a career-high 41 home runs, had his best full season in the majors and then raked in all three rounds of the playoffs.

How could they possibly let him get away?

Adding to the drama is the looming threat of the Mets, who carried by far baseball’s largest payroll in 2024, an estimated $336 million. Not only do the Mets have the need and the wherewithal to sign Soto, it would also be a statement within New York that they, too, are sitting at the big boy table. Not just adding Soto but also hurting the Yankees? Has to be a pretty appealing thought for owner Steve Cohen.

The San Francisco Giants are another team to monitor. They’ve lost out on star hitters for years, from Bryce Harper to Aaron Judge. Can they afford to let another slip out of their grasp? The financial commitment might be more difficult than for either of the two New York teams, but the Giants too are in a spot where the biggest difference-maker they might find over the next decade is right in front of their face.

The ever-creative Dodgers might also be in the mix, though winning the World Series could cool their interest slightly.

The Phillies are obviously a big spender, as well. Their 2024 payroll, from a luxury tax perspective, ended up in the $260 million range. They’re projected to enter 2025 at just about the same number after factoring in the raise for Zack Wheeler and those due to Ranger Suarez, Alec Bohm, Stott, Marsh and Edmundo Sosa.

The number applied to the luxury tax is a player’s annual average salary. If Soto signs a 10-year, $500 million contract, the luxury tax hit for his team would be $50 million.

The luxury tax threshold in 2025 is $241 million. The Phillies are already only about $20 million away from exceeding the next threshold of $281 million. That’s meaningful because it results in not just a steeper surcharge on overages, but your highest draft pick is also moved back 10 spots.

“I don’t think we need to have more star players,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said two weeks ago. “We have as many stars as about anybody in baseball so I don’t think necessarily that you need to add more. John [Middleton] is very accommodating and giving, but you’re also in a position where you’re still working with a payroll.

“Would you be open to it? Yes, but I think you have to be careful because sometimes it’s not only the star players, it’s also sometimes the supporting cast. And when you look at it again, we had eight All-Stars, right?

“I don’t necessarily think that the answer is always a star player. I’m not saying we won’t get one, but I don’t think it’s a necessity by any means.”

Sounds like a man who knows his team won’t be the favorite to land the prize of the offseason.

That’s the other part: Soto is so clearly the best free agent in a relatively thin market. The best bats after him are Alex Bregman, Christian Walker, Pete Alonso, Teoscar Hernandez, Tyler O’Neill, Anthony Santander and Willy Adames. Walker, Alonso and Adames play a position where the Phillies are already filled.

So in terms of free-agent hitters capable of moving the needle, it’s Bregman, Hernandez and maybe O’Neill and Santander who would fit for the Phillies positionally.

Which is why Dombrowski is likely to explore trades this winter, some that might seem outside the box. It doesn’t look like a year where you can plug multiple big holes just through free agency. If the Phillies, for example, were to come away from this offseason with O’Neill as a platoon partner for Marsh in left field and Harrison Bader (the top free-agent center fielder unless Cody Bellinger opts out), would that feel like even close to enough improvement?

Last offseason was about re-signing Aaron Nola and extending Wheeler. The prior winter brought the Phillies Trea Turner for $300 million (and Taijuan Walker for $72M). The year before, they signed Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos for a combined $178 million. And, of course, the Bryce Harper contract and Wheeler’s first nine-figure deal — signed seven months apart in 2019 — kickstarted the whole thing.

This offseason is shaping up as the most fascinating and challenging of the bunch for the Phillies because short of Soto, they might not be able to simply spend their way to meaningful upgrades.