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It is not hyperbole to say that the Mets will be entering the playoffs fresh off the best and most exhilarating regular season game in the history of the franchise.
The way the Mets clinched and exorcised their demons in Game 161 in Atlanta — making an epic late-inning comeback, blowing the lead in almost unbelievable fashion, and then watching Francisco Lindor hit a decisive two-run homer in the ninth — left pretty much everyone watching exclaiming “Oh my God.”
That’s fitting, of course, since OMG was the rallying cry for a group that dug itself out of a hole in June before playing like one of the best teams in baseball over the last three months and change.
But the Mets also have to be exhausted, after MLB dropped the ball while failing to get in front of the hurricane that was approaching Atlanta last week. Because of that failure, the Mets were forced to travel from Milwaukee to Atlanta for Monday’s doubleheader on a day where they should’ve been off. Not only that, but MLB doubled down on its mistake by refusing to push back the Wild Card Series a day.
That means the Mets will have to board a plane after playing 18 innings on Monday, fly to Milwaukee, get some sleep, and then play Game 1 of the Wild Card Series on Tuesday shortly after 5:30 p.m. EST.
But the 2024 Mets have proven repeatedly this season that they are one of the most resilient teams in club history. And that should give them the confidence they need to meet the latest challenge.
Here’s our preview and prediction as the Mets and Brewers play in the postseason for the first time ever…
What the Mets have going for them
There is an intangible this team has, and it has helped them get this far. Call it a short memory, or a focused looseness, or the ability to match the moment. That matters a lot.
But this is also just a really good baseball team.
Only six teams in the majors scored more runs than the Mets (768) during the regular season. New York’s offense can go cold at times, as we saw during their three-game losing streak toward the end of the season. But it can also be explosive, as they showed recently when they scored 10 runs in three straight games.
Most of the time, it’s very good and quite deep. And it got an enormous boost recently when Lindor not only returned, but came back looking like the MVP candidate he was before he injured his back.
The Mets’ pitching has also been nails in the second half, though they’ve had a few hiccups lately. Their starting rotation — especially if Sean Manaea can shake off his tough start against the Brewers this past weekend — should have no problem going toe-to-toe with Milwaukee. New York’s bullpen is more of a question mark, but if their high-leverage arms are on their game, Edwin Diaz and Co. have the ability to dominate the late innings.
And the Mets’ strong defense shouldn’t be overlooked, especially in close games late, when Harrison Bader and Tyrone Taylor are patrolling the outfield.
What the Brewers have going for them
The season after losing manager Craig Counsell to the Cubs and without co-aces Corbin Burnes (on the Orioles) and Brandon Woodruff (on the IL), this was expected to be a transition year for the Brewers. Not so fast.
Even losing Christian Yelich for the year in late July, during a season when he had a .909 OPS, could not derail them.
Yes, the Brewers triumphed in a mediocre NL Central, but this is a legitimately good team.
The most fearsome part of their club is the bullpen, featuring closer Devin Williams (1.25 ERA and 0.969 WHIP) and setup man Trevor Megill. Like the Mets, the Brewers don’t have a true ace. But their rotation is formidable, led by Freddy Peralta.
Milwaukee also has a strong offensive attack that scored 777 runs this season. Their offense has some power, but is contact-heavy and has a bunch of guys who can steal bases (Brice Turang swiped 50 bags). Jackson Chourio, Willy Adames, Sal Frelick, and Mets villain Rhys Hoskins are also featured.
The Mets will win the series if…
A huge key to this series will be the Mets overcoming their tiredness from the whirlwind final days of the regular season. Perhaps being on fumes will keep them loose.
One thing that could help is that — almost miraculously — they will have a fully-rested Luis Severino ready to start Game 1, with Manaea possibly going on regular rest in Game 2.
If Severino can pitch well and go deep in Game 1, it will go a long way — especially after Diaz threw tons of pitches while pitching on Sunday and Monday.
The Mets also need more consistency from an offense that has been hit-or-miss lately. That starts with Pete Alonso, who has been mired in a slump but who can carry the team if he gets hot.
The Brewers will win the series if…
If the Brewers steal bases at will, like they did during the first two games of their series against the Mets this past weekend, New York will likely be in trouble.
The Mets also have to find away to prevent a contact-heavy team from forcing their starting pitchers into high pitch counts early. If they don’t, an already-taxed pitching staff will be up against it.
Another task for the Mets is obvious when it comes to any game against any team, but is paramount against the Brewers: do not allow them to be leading after the seventh inning, when Megill and Williams will be waiting to close things out.
Prediction
Mets in three
There are lots of people pointing to the Mets 1-5 record against the Brewers this season as a reason to be worried, but the first three games (March 29-31) were so long ago that they might as well have been played last season. The team the Mets were in March is not the team they are entering October.
The Brewers are formidable, and ousting them won’t be easy, but nothing has been easy for the 2024 Mets. This is the latest challenge they’ll meet, resulting in a trip to the NLDS.
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