NFBC Main Event Tracker: Week 24 review

As has been the case all season long, it seems we take one step forward and then two steps back. After a glimmer of hope and optimism after our strong showing in Week 23, things tightened right back up on us with an unbelievably poor showing in Week 24. It’s going to be a fight right down to the final day of the season.

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Hitting Review

Spoiler alert, it’s not good. We missed every single one of our weekly targets.

The catching tandem didn’t really provide much as William Contreras hit for a poor average with a homer and two RBI while Carson Kelly went just 2-for-12 (.167) with three runs scored and zeros elsewhere.

Paul Goldschmidt continued his late-season resurgence, hitting .250 with a homer, three RBI and a stolen base. That we will absolutely take.

Jeff McNeil started the first half of the week at second base before breaking his wrist and didn’t do much prior to that. Xavier Edwards returned from the injured list to swipe three bases, score four runs and drive in a pair. Welcome back, though the swipes are meaningless to our team at this stage.

Ezequiel Tovar clubbed a solo homer and swiped a base during the week, but that was it as far as production. Jose Ramirez had just four hits on the period, contributing one run, one RBI and a stolen base. Hard to fault him after all he’s done for us this year.

Tyler O’Neill had a nice week in the outfield, hitting .300 with a couple of homers and three RBI. He was the only member of the team to hit multiple home runs on the week. Arozarena had a nice week as well, hitting .292 with a homer, five runs scored and five RBI – pacing the team in both counting categories.

Kerry Carpenter was fine, hitting .294 with a couple of RBI. Jarren Duran scored three times and drove in a pair. Jurickson Profar didn’t do anything in the second half of the week, but homered off of one of our pitchers during his two games in the front half on our bench.

Anthony Rizzo did not provide the boost we were hoping for, hitting .158 with two RBI in his debut. Jose Tena played over the weekend and swiped a base. Rowdy Tellez contributed two RBI in the front half of the week before sitting for three LHP on the weekend (where he still homered). Jace Jung hit .429 in his half-week in the lineup but with little else to show for it.

Overall, the numbers on the week were not good. We missed in runs (-7.3), home runs (-4.8), RBI (-11.3), stolen bases (-0.8) and batting average (-0.029). Woof.

For the season, we are still running a surplus in runs (+42) and stolen bases (+13). We’re still chasing large numbers in homers (-10) and RBI (-65). The batting average is just two points light.

Pitching Review

Heading into the week with newfound optimism after last week’s strong showing on the pitching side. We’re scheduled for nine starts (doubles from Corbin Burnes and J.T. Ginn) while rolling both of our closers.

The week started out on a high note, as Burnes was victorious in his first start of the week, allowing just one run on six hits and a walk over five innings against the hapless White Sox. He struck out four batters in that one.

Justin Verlander also took the hill on Monday and struggled badly in his outing against the Reds, giving up five runs on eight hits and four walks across 4 2/3 innings. The veteran right-hander punched out just three batters in the game.

We wound up sitting Kutter Crawford for Tuesday’s start against the Mets, and he actually piled up eight strikeouts over six strong innings of two-run baseball. Fortunately, he didn’t earn a win at least.

Ginn took the hill for the first time on our roster on Tuesday and pitched well against the Mariners – allowing just two runs on five hits over six innings while striking out seven. The A’s offense didn’t oblige though and he went without a victory as well.

On Wednesday we had staff ace Bowden Francis take the mound and for the first time on our roster he went without a victory – giving up three runs on six hits over six frames against the Phillies. He did manage to chip in six strikeouts at least.

Thursday brought our first closer sighting of the week, as Alexis Diaz worked a scoreless ninth inning with a strikeout to pick up a save against the Astros.

Casey Mize didn’t pitch well in his start against the Padres, allowing three runs on six hits and a walk across 5 1/3 innings. He struck out just two batters.

Clarke Schmidt was excellent in his return from the injured list, hurling 4 2/3 innings of shutout baseball against the Cubs with a pair of strikeouts. Had Juan Soto been able to catch a fly ball with two outs in the fifth inning he would have earned a victory, but I digress.

Shane Baz pitched well against the Orioles on Saturday afternoon – allowing just one earned run on two hits and three walks over six innings while striking out five. Like many of his teammates this week though, he was denied a victory as well. That leaves us with just one victory on the week heading into Sunday. Yuck.

Burnes pitched alright in his second start of the week, allowing two runs on seven hits over six innings with three strikeouts. Sadly, no victory was to be had.

Ginn pitched decently in his second start, giving up three runs on seven hits over five innings against the Tigers. He didn’t earn a win, but did at least manage to record five strikeouts.

Verlander also drew a second start on the week on Sunday night against the Diamondbacks, and it was so bad that it may have actually ended our hopes for the season. The aging right-hander gave up eight runs on eight hits and a walk in just three innings of work and did not record a single strikeout. I can’t punt him into the sun fast enough.

To make matters even worse, Hader came on for his first appearance of the week with the Astros getting clobbered in the ninth inning and proceeded to allow a run on a couple of hits without any strikeouts. Lovely.

Taking a look at the weekly numbers, it’s not good. Like we did on the hitting side, we managed to miss each and every single one of our targets this week. 0-for-10 overall at a critical time in the season. Terrific.

We came up way short in wins (-2.7) and strikeouts (-13.7) while getting a bit closer in saves (-1.1) The ratios were abysmal – thanks mostly to the carnage that Verlander provided.

Glancing at the season-long numbers, there’s no green to be found, though we are exactly even in saves. We’re chasing 15 wins and 127 strikeouts while any hope of making our preferred ratios went out the door months ago.

FAAB Plan

Alright, we have $14 left for the season, let’s see if we can put it to some use.

As always, the first step is always to see what we have available to drop. On the offensive side Jeff McNeil is a very easy drop, as he fractured his wrist and is going to miss the remainder of the season. Jace Jung has been very meh in his time with us and he could go for the right upgrade. He’s not a must to go though.

On the pitching side, it’s a bit trickier. You’d think that last week’s FAAB double J.T. Ginn would be a drop, but he’s scheduled to take on the White Sox next week which makes him an appealing option to keep. The top pitching option that I’m actually leaning toward dropping is Erick Fedde. The Cardinals have shifted to a six-man rotation and Fedde isn’t scheduled to double at all the rest of the way. His options for single starts aren’t ideal either. There’s no reason to keep him on our bench the rest of the season if we aren’t going to use him.

We need to drop Verlander on the same premise that we won’t use him again, but also because he’s over the hill and can’t pitch anymore.

We also have the potential to upgrade at our second catcher spot, with Joey Bart back from the injured list. He would be a nice upgrade over Carson Kelly.

As far as what’s available on the hitting side, Trevor Story is the top target. Andrew Benintendi has been swinging a hot bat for the past month and is worth a look. After that, it would be more of the same types that we’ve been cycling through all season.

As far as pitching goes, the top option available is Paul Blackburn, who is returning from the injured list for a two-start week at the Blue Jays and at the Phillies. Behind him, Nick Martinez is set up for two starts (albeit in tough matchups). Adam Oller gets two as well with decent matchups. The options get really sketchy after that.

FAAB Results

It is what it is at this point of the season.

Trevor Story was our top target on the hitting side, knowing that we wouldn’t have the funds to secure his services. The last thing we wanted to see though was him go to Phil Dussault who is our direct competitor in the standings. The winning bid there was $8 ($7). Note to self, conserve FAAB for the end of the season next year.

Nick Martinez was our third pitching target, but someone that we definitely had interest in. We came in as the runner-up bid there at $7 ($2).

After a few other non-relevant names went off the board we come to Joey Bart, who was our top catching target. We fell $1 short on that one, losing to a bid of $3 ($3).

Our second target on the catching front was Bo Naylor, who also went to Phil for $3 ($1). That’s fun.

Surprisingly, we actually landed our top pitching target in Paul Blackburn with a bid of $3 ($2). Fedde was the drop on that one.

We missed out on Andrew Benintendi with another runner-up bid at $3 ($2). He went to league leader Griffin Benger.

We also managed to land our second pitching target in Adam Oller for $2 ($1). He’s got a playable double with two good matchups and we need all of the starts that we can handle at this point. McNeil was the drop on that one.

On the catching side we did ultimately add Jake Rogers for $1 (unopposed) with Kelly as the drop. Need him to sock a couple of dingers and drive in a few runs this week.

We also cut Verlander by adding Kyle Hendricks for the most hilariously awful two-step in history – at the Dodgers and at the Rockies. That first start though, he’s set to take on Walker Buehler, so he would up our win equity in that one. We’ll see if he makes it in the lineup.

Overall we spent $7 of the $14 that we had remaining, leaving us with $7 for the final couple of weeks. Nothing of interest was dropped this week.

Looking Ahead

As we have the past couple of weeks, I think we have to start by examining the standings and check to see where it’s possible to make up (or lose) any ground.

On the offensive side of the ledger, we’re still so far ahead in runs that no one can catch us there. The same thing can be said for stolen bases. So we don’t need either of those categories.

Home runs isn’t the battleground that I had hoped it would be. We’re +7 on the nearest person behind us and +19 on the person that’s two points back. We’re -15 on the person ahead of us in the category. Would be nice to hold where we are at a minimum, but making up 15 homers at this stage of the season seems unlikely.

RBI is the category where there is still some wiggle room. We’re currently 7th in the league in the category at 862. The person behind us has 859 and the next person has 842. We can’t even afford to lose that one point. Ahead of us though, are teams of 867 and 871. After that it’s 890. To have any shot at cashing this thing, we need to gain two points in the standings in RBI.

On the pitching side, strikeouts continue to be an area where we could gain ground, we just haven’t been able to. Even while trying to stack up starts for months, we have just been spinning our wheels here. We’re currently ninth in the category at 1,132. The closest team behind us has 1,104. We can’t let them catch us. Ahead of us, we’re staring at 1,145 and 1,155. After that, there’s 1,188 and 1,192. Again, if we’re going to make this comeback happen, we need to gain those two available points in strikeouts at a minimum.

The same thing can be said for wins. We’re currently in a three-way tie for ninth place with 71 victories. There are two teams right behind us at 70 wins. It’s only going to gain us one point in the standings, but we have to come out ahead of the two teams that we’re tied with and hold off the two teams behind. That’s a tall ask. Ahead of us are teams with 74 and 75. Would be nice to catch one of them if possible. Strikeouts and wins look like the priority still.

Saves is a more dynamic argument. We’re currently tied for second with 71 saves. The person that we’re tied with is employing three closers at the moment in Jason Foley, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, and he also has Chad Green. The chances of us holding that half-point seem slim. There’s also a team ahead of us with 72 saves. He’s currently using two closers (Raisel Iglesias and Mason Miller) and also has Andres Munoz on the bench. There’s a chance that we could gain that point, but it’s not a given. Behind us is a team with 68 saves. He has a couple of closers in Kyle Finnegan and Seranthony Dominguez, but benched both of them last week while playing Evan Phillips. We can’t afford to let him catch us.

I didn’t think that ERA would become an area that we could lose ground, but after Verlander’s two-start gut punch, here we are. Gone are any chances of making up ground in the category. There’s one point out there that we could still lose though as we’re currently at 4.105 and there’s a team behind at 4.123. We need to try to keep that point, but strikeouts and wins still seem like the key.

WHIP isn’t quite as bad. Our chances of moving up the category have diminished as we’re at 1.229 and chasing 1.223, 1.216 and 1.213. The team behind us though has 1.254 and it would take a disaster for us to fall that far.

I think the idea is to maximize starts as much as we can and just hope that ratio variance falls in our favor.

Looking at the pitching side to start with for decisions, we have 14 options to choose from this week, needing to start nine and sit five.

All three of our FAAB additions are doubles. Blackburn (at Blue Jays, at Phillies) and Oller (at Pirates, at Nationals) are in for sure. Crawford doubles (vs. Orioles, at Yankees) and he’s in as well. Buehler also doubles (vs. Cubs, at Braves) and he makes the cut. That’s four. Can’t sit Francis with how well he has pitched, even in a single against the Mets. Burnes is still locked in despite the recent bad run and lack of strikeouts. A matchup against the Tigers looks appetizing with their lefty-heavy lineup and Burnes’ reverse splits this season. That gets us to six.

Assuming that we’re still rolling with both of the closers, that leaves us with just one spot left. Hendricks does line up for two starts as I mentioned (at Dodgers, at Rockies) and is capable of pitching well in tough spots. The Cubs will probably be favored in the game at Coors.

J.T. Ginn was kept because he gets to take on the White Sox. He has been racking up strikeouts and looks to be in a strong position to earn a victory.

Shane Baz gets a single at the Phillies (Wheeler). Ryan Pepiot gets a single at the Guardians (Cobb). Casey Mize gets to take on the Rockies at home (Gomber). Clarke Schmidt is likely to face the Red Sox at some point over the weekend, either as a traditional starter or in a bulk relief role.

If I’m using just one from that group, it comes down to either Ginn, Mize or Schmidt. If we add a second to replace one of the closers, I’d choose from that group as well.

On the hitting side, we’re down to just two extra bats to play with, so it’s just about finding the worst two options to sit down.

Jurickson Profar is the only player that has two games the first half of the week. He has made it a habit to homer in these types of situations, which is frustrating, but I think we have to consider keeping him on the bench. The option to replace him would be Trevor Larnach. He’s set to take on the Angels (one LHP). Luckily, the matchup with the southpaw is on Monday. If Larnach is in the lineup on Monday and looks like he’ll get three games, he’s in for Profar.

I think the other sit has to be Jace Jung. He has been sitting against left-handers and gets one in his three games against the Rockies. That moves Tellez into the lineup alongside Rizzo.

Where we Stand

Well for starters, I can say with all honesty that my spirits are at an all-time low. I’m still putting in the work, but I can feel this cash slipping away from me and it’s going to take a miracle to turn things around.

We finished week 23 with 102 points in our league. That was 27.5 points back of Benger at the top, 12 points behind Gil for second place and five points ahead of Dussault for third place. We finish week 24 back at just 98.5 league points. That’s 27.5 back of Benger for first, 15.5 behind Gill for second and now three points back of Dussault for third place. Ugh.

We finished last week in 127th place overall and in 67th place for the CLQ. We fell back to 173rd and 75th respectively.

I desperately hope to come to you all next week with better news and renewed optimism for the final few weeks of the season.

As always, I would love to hear your feedback on what you think of the article, the team, my decision making, the emotional roller-coaster, etc. If you’d like more insights into the CLQ or why those other two teams are struggling to keep us going there, let me know. Those that have reached out so far, I can’t tell you how much it’s been appreciated. This has probably been my favorite column to write in the 12+ years that I’ve been doing this. Just drop me a line on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.