NFBC Main Event Tracker: Week 25 review

If you thought that last week was rough in terms of our outlook for this season, then stop now and don’t read this week’s column. Things have taken a major turn for the worse. We’re now a major underdog to even cash in this league and it’s looking more and more likely that this season will end up as a historic disappointment.

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Hitting Review

In a week where we absolutely needed the offense to step up and make up some ground, we wound up with another round of disappointment.

We got the elite production that we have grown to expect from William Contreras – hitting .375 with a homer and six RBI on the week – but got basically nothing from Jake Rogers. Not having a reliable second catcher – especially when it was such a focus of our strategy and we invested draft capital in the position – has been devastating.

Paul Goldschmidt hit .316 on the week, but did so with just one RBI and nothing else. That’s not going to get it done.

Xavier Edwards had a strong week, hitting .316 with a run scored and a pair of stolen bases. Unfortunately, the contributions in speed don’t help us at this stage.

Ezequiel Tovar hit just .167 on the week, but at least clubbed a home run and drove in three runs. I’ll allow it.

Jose Ramirez continued to do his thing as he chases a 40/40 season. He homered, scored five runs and swiped four bases, though he only collected one RBI.

Tyler O’Neill certainly brought his power stroke this week, clubbing four home runs and driving in a team-leading eight. He also scored six times. Nothing to complain about with his performance this week.

Can’t complain about Randy Arozarena either, as he homered and plated five runs on the period. Trevor Larnach hit well (.385) and scored seven runs, but it was with zeroes across the board otherwise. Difficult to do when you spend most of your time hitting cleanup.

Jarren Duran disappeared when we needed him most, scoring five times and posting zeroes the rest of the way. Kerry Carpenter homered and drove in three runs in a solid week. Jurickson Profar hit .300, but it too was an empty average.

Rowdy Tellez wound up seeing just 11 at-bats on the week and went 0-for-11 with one RBI. We also got nothing from Anthony Rizzo in his half-week in the lineup. Jose Tena was a pleasant surprise though, hitting .348 with a homer, three RBI, four runs scored and three swipes.

Looking at the weekly numbers, we barely eked out our target in runs (+0.8) and stolen bases (+1.1). We just missed our home run target (-1.7) while falling woefully short in RBI (-9.2) once again. The batting average was right at the targeted number.

On the season, we’re still running a surplus in runs (+46) and stolen bases (+13) while we constantly chase home runs (-9) and RBI (-71). We’re still just a hair under the number in batting average.

Pitching Review

We entered the week expecting to have 11 starts on the pitching side while still rolling both closers. That should have given us an opportunity to make up ground in victories and strikeouts that we so desperately needed.

However, on Monday morning we received word that our prized FAAB addition, Paul Blackburn, was dealing with a back issue and would not return from the injured list as originally expected on Monday. That meant that we had to pivot to a single start that we didn’t really want to use instead, while also losing a start before the week even started.

Our first actual start of the week came on Monday night as we did use Walker Buehler for his two-start week. We did not, however, use Kyle Hendricks against him – leaving his two-start week on the bench instead of rolling the dice at the Dodgers and at the Rockies. Like he has all season, Buehler pitched poorly – giving up five runs on 10 walks+hits across his five innings while striking out four. Fortunately, Hendricks did not emerge from there with a victory.

Alexis Diaz took the mound on Monday night and worked a scoreless ninth inning to protect a one-run lead, earning our first save of the week.

Things got worse on Tuesday as Adam Oller took the mound against the Pirates. He surrendered six runs on 10 walks+hits in his five frames, recording just to strikeouts in his disaster.

Kutter Crawford was better in the first start of his double – punching out six batters over 6 1/3 innings of three-run baseball – but he did not earn a win for his efforts.

Josh Hader got into Tuesday’s game, working a scoreless inning with a strikeout in a tied game. Unfortunately, the Astros were unable to walk that one off for him to put him in the win column.

On Wednesday, we gave the ball to Bowden Francis hoping that he could get our pitching staff back on track. The studly right-hander carried a no-hit bid into the ninth inning against the Mets, where he allowed a leadoff solo homer to Francisco Lindor before turning the ball over to the Blue Jays’ bullpen. The Jays’ offense only mustered one run in the game though, so he too missed out on a victory. He also recorded only one strikeout.

On Friday night, it was Clarke Schmidt toeing the slab against the Red Sox. He pitched well – giving up just two runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Red Sox and struck out five batters – but our first win of the week continued to elude us.

On Saturday we had Corbin Burnes take the mound against the Tigers and throw an actual gem – striking out seven batters over seven shutout innings to earn our lone victory on the week.

On Sunday, we had three starters take the mound hoping to finish the week strong in the second half of their respective doubles. Not so much.

Oller was a pile of meh in his start against the Nationals, giving up three runs on six hits over his five innings in a no-decision. He struck out only two batters. Crawford was knocked around by the Yankees, giving up four runs on six hits and a pair of walks in only 4 1/3 innings. He did at least record seven strikeouts.

Buehler actually pitched well in his start, allowing just one earned run on three hits and five walks over six innings against the Braves – striking out five in the process. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to earn a victory.

We also had Hader work the final two outs against the Angels on Sunday to nab his second save of the week.

In addition, we had to deal with the frustration of Hendricks dominating the Rockies with seven strikeouts in a victory at Coors Field on our bench.

Looking at the weekly numbers, it’s not pretty. We once again missed all five of our targets on the pitching side. We were close in saves (-0.1) and strikeouts (-5.5) while falling way behind again in wins (-2.7) and in both ratio categories.

On the season, we’re exactly even in saves and way behind in all of the other categories. The deficits in wins (-17) and strikeouts (-128) are completely embarrassing, especially after we have focused extensively on those categories over the past two months. The ratios never had a chance.

FAAB Plan

We only have $7 left, so obviously our options for this week and next are going to be limited.

We have four pitchers on the roster that we’re surely not going to use again in J.T. Ginn, Kyle Hendricks, Adam Oller and Paul Blackburn – all of whom should be dropped.

We’re looking to add as many extra starts as we can, while also considering some bullpen arms in a pinch if we need to extend the list. The best doubles available are Bobby Miller, Tylor Megill, Brandon Williamson and Jonathan Cannon. Both Jacob deGrom and Kumar Rocker are interesting targets, though they will only make single starts in each of the next two weeks and both of them are going to have their innings limited.

In terms of bullpen arms, Luke Weaver and Tyler Holton are the two names that stand out given their extreme usage and likelihood of landing a win or a save.

Brant Hurter has continued to pitch well and could conceivably pitch twice next week if they go with him on short rest on Tuesday. Griffin Canning is set to take on the White Sox in the final week and should be added to the list.

I can’t see the benefit of trying to add five of these names, so I’ll probably add one bat in one of those spots. Trey Sweeney is the most interesting name to me as he has been driving in runs and plays everyday for the Tigers. Grant McCray, Pavin Smith, Justin Turner and Kody Clemens are other names in the bucket on the offensive side.

FAAB Results

It is what it is at this point.

Jacob deGrom raked in the highest bid of the week at $110 ($21), far beyond our modest means. Same for teammate Kumar Rocker who pulled in $42 ($21).

Tylor Megill was an attractive double start option that also went way above our budget at $17 ($17). We had down-list interest in Griffin Canning who also went for $17 ($1).

Bobby Miller was perhaps our top pitching target, but our bid of $3 fell $1 short to the $4 winner.

We had Bailey Falter on our list, but he went for $3 ($1) as well. Brant Hurter brought in $2 ($1) and it wasn’t us.

Trey Sweeney and Pavin Smith each pulled in $2 ($1) bids, with us finishing as the runner-up on both. We were also the runner-up on Justin Turner at $1 ($1).

We finally get to us in dollar days with Brandon Williamson (unopposed), Jonathan Cannon (unopposed), Luke Weaver ($1) and Grant McCray ($1). As expected, Ginn, Oller, Blackburn and Hendricks were the drops.

Looking Ahead

We’re so far behind right now that there’s really no point to dig into each category individually here. It’s basically the same as it has been the past few weeks. Nothing we can do in runs or stolen bases. There are a few points we could gain in RBI. Our ratios are in bad shape, but there are a few points we could gain. We need all of the wins and strikeouts that we can get, but it still probably won’t be enough. We could potentially gain or lose half a point in saves.

On the pitching side, I think that we’re going to stick with two closers. Perhaps one of them should be Luke Weaver though instead of Alexis Diaz? Weaver had a whopping 10 strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings last week while earning both a win and a save. Should have looked in his direction last week.

Assuming we go Hader and Weaver, we have seven spots left for starting pitchers and 10 potential options. All of the doubles are in – meaning we’ll use FAAB additions Cannon (at Angels, at Padres) and Williamson (vs. Braves, vs. Pirates) along with Shane Baz (vs. Red Sox, vs. Blue Jays) and Casey Mize (at Royals, at Orioles).

That leaves three spots for single starts. Burnes against the Tigers once more seems like an easy start. It’s tough to sit Francis down and a single at the Rangers isn’t intimidating. The final spot comes down to Schmidt at the Mariners (Hancock) or Buehler vs. the Rockies (Freeland). They’re both strong options, early lean is Schmidt.

On the offensive side we now have three extra bats to play with. It actually all looks pretty straightforward though. Tellez gets four games, all against RHP, so he’s probably in. Carpenter and Jace Jung play three games and get one LHP, so it’s likely that they only play two each. Carpenter is still in though, Jung an easy sit.

The one spot up in the air is utility. Larnach gets four games, but two of them are against LHP. If he sits against the first one on Monday, it’s likely that he only plays two games. Rizzo gets three, all against RHP while Grant McCray gets three against RHP as well. We’ll wait to see on lineups, but it’s likely that one of them plays ahead of Larnach.

Where we Stand

We finished last week with 102 points in our league. That was three points behind Phil Dussault for third place. We finished the week at a miserable 94.5 league points. That’s now 8.5 points back of third place and unlikely to finish in the cash.

We had been in 173rd place in the overall standings and way down at 75th overall in the CLQ standings. We’re down to 181st in the overall and 80th in the CLQ standings. A disappointing finish for a disappointing season.

While it doesn’t look like this team is going to cash this season, it has been an absolute pleasure to write this column each and every week. Those that have been following along and taking part in this journey with me, I can’t tell you how much I have appreciated the feedback throughout the season. This has probably been my favorite column to write in the 12+ years that I’ve been doing this. If you have any thoughts or opinions on the wild ride that it has been this season, you can find me on X (@DaveShovein) and I would be happy to discuss.