No run support for Wheeler, Phillies cold offensively in final weekend

No run support for Wheeler, Phillies cold offensively in final weekend originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

WASHINGTON — For the second time in four years, Zack Wheeler dominated in the month of September to cap off a Cy Young-caliber season.

And for the second time in four years, he’s locked in an extremely close race for the award all starters covet.

The Phillies could have made it easier on him with run support in his final start Saturday but they were stifled in eight of nine innings by Mackenzie Gore and the Nationals’ bullpen in a 6-3 loss.

The Phillies have been outscored 15-4 in back-to-back losses in D.C. after clinching a playoff bye on Wednesday at home. They are now locked into the 2-seed. The Dodgers will have home-field advantage in the NLCS if they advance. The Phils have it over the other five National League teams.

The Phillies’ NLDS opponent will be either the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mets or Braves. They cannot face the Padres, who are locked into the 4-seed.

Wheeler was his typically dominant self, cruising until rookie James Wood’s two-run, opposite-field homer in the bottom of the sixth inning. The pitch count was manageable and Rob Thomson let him stay in the game to record the first out of the seventh inning to reach 200 innings before removing him. If it’s not a stress-filled outing, he will likely do the same on Sunday with Aaron Nola, who is 5⅔ short.

Based on traditional statistics, workload, advanced metrics and his consistent excellence in the highest-pressure starts of his career, Wheeler has been the best pitcher in baseball since 2020, his first year with the Phillies. Yet there’s a possibility that the 1A of this era might not win a Cy Young because of circumstances outside his control. Pitchers like Wheeler lull you into thinking it’s easy, but staying healthy and doing what he’s done year after year since 2020 is nothing to take for granted.

Wheeler finished 16-8 with a 2.57 ERA, striking out 224 in 200 innings and allowing the lowest rate of hits in the league.

In 2021, Wheeler (141 voting points) finished just behind Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes (151) in the Cy Young race. Wheeler pitched 46⅓ more innings, the equivalent of eight extra starts for Burnes. It was a polarizing result that only looks worse in retrospect.

This time, it’s Chris Sale. The 35-year-old-lefty leads the league in wins (18-3), ERA (2.38) and strikeouts (225) and has the lowest home run rate in baseball. He also the narrative on his side — aging, oft-injured former ace who surprisingly vaulted back to the top tier nearly a decade after a string of Cy Young near-misses himself.

Wheeler has the advantage on Sale in WHIP (0.96 to 1.01), opponents’ batting average (.192 to .216) and innings (200 to 177⅔).

He pitched to a 1.89 ERA over his final 11 starts to close the gap between Sale and himself. Those 11 starts represent the longest streak in Phillies history of two runs or fewer. At this point, their ERAs are so close that Wheeler’s innings advantage could cancel out the difference in the minds of some voters.

Wheeler had a 1.55 ERA in nine starts against teams in the National League playoff field.

He held right-handed hitters to the second-lowest OPS (.439) in the majors in the last 50 years, or as long as platoon splits have been tracked.

It was a historically good season for Wheeler, his best as a Phillie. He was signed in March to a three-year, $126 million extension covering 2025-27 — the fourth-highest per-year number in baseball history behind Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. He added a splitter to his arsenal and talked in spring training about his hope that the pitch would take him to an even higher level. He mentioned the Cy Young award as his target.

And then he went out and exceeded expectations over 32 starts.

Wheeler will pitch Game 1 of the NLDS at Citizens Bank Park for the Phillies, no matter the opponent. He will be able to pitch a theoretical Game 5, as well, on five days’ rest. It’s a big deal for the Phillies to know they’ll have him starting 40% of their games in a round.

His first pitch of the game Saturday was a pinpoint 96 mph fastball at the knees to Luis Garcia Jr., right on the black. The next pitch was another 96 mph heater he couldn’t catch up to. The third pitch was a perfectly executed breaking ball low-and-away in the dirt.

That’s Zack Wheeler. Not just strikes but quality strikes. Almost always overpowering out of the gate regardless of whether he possesses his best stuff that day.

Wheeler picked up his eighth strikeout to begin the bottom of the fifth and to that point had allowed just one hit and no runs. Garcia then singled up the middle and Wood hit a long fly ball that carried just over the wall in left for a two-run homer.

The Phillies tied the game in the top of the eighth on a two-out, 0-2 homer from Trea Turner, his 21st. Jose Ferrer’s next pitch was up-and-in near Bryce Harper’s head and Harper and Ferrer had words after Harper’s inning-ending strikeout. The benches and bullpens cleared but order was quickly restored.

The Nationals’ winning run came against Jeff Hoffman in a rare ugly appearance. Wood tripled to lead off the bottom of the eighth and scored on a Keibert Ruiz single. Dylan Crews extended the inning with two outs and Joey Gallo hit a three-run homer. Hoffman allowed an earned run in only nine of 68 appearances this season.

The only piece of unfinished business with home-field advantage for the Phillies pertains to the World Series. They’ll clinch it over the Yankees and Guardians with a win Sunday.

Of more immediate concern is the lineup. The last thing a playoff team wants before a five-day layoff is an ice-cold weekend against one of baseball’s worst pitching staffs and that’s exactly what the Phils are experiencing.