Red Sox land their ace in Garrett Crochet: Fantasy outlook and breakdown of the trade

The Red Sox desperately needed to make a splash this off-season to prove to their fanbase that they are serious in their desire to put a contender on the field. After “being in contention” on both Juan Soto and Max Fried but missing out, the Red Sox fanbase was beginning to experience deja vu with another offseason of “we tried.” Then Wednesday afternoon rolled around and the Red Sox pulled off a blockbuster deal, landing left-handed starter Garrett Crochet from the White Sox.

It was eight years ago that the Red Sox acquired Chris Sale from the White Sox for Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech, and the organization is hoping this trade turns out just as well. But will it? Let’s dig in to see what each team is getting in this deal.

How does this impact Garrett Crochet’s fantasy value?

In my post-season Top 150 Starting Pitchers article, I had Garrett Crochet ranked as SP5 overall heading into 2025 so there’s not much room to go up. The left-hander was absolutely electric in his first year as a starting pitcher, posting a 3.58 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 209/33 K/BB ratio in 146 innings. That came with a 35.1% strikeout rate, 29.6% K-BB%, 16.2% swinging strike rate, and 30.7% CSW. In no uncertain terms, Crochet was absolutely dominant.

If there are any concerns about Crochet’s durability in the rotation, they can be put to rest. We know the White Sox were limiting Crochet’s innings in the second half of the season since he had never thrown more than 54.1 innings in his professional career, but much of that had to do with preserving his trade value in a season where the White Sox were going nowhere. Crochet himself had mentioned wanting to sign an extension if he was traded at the deadline so that he would have some security if he was asked to pitch deep into the playoffs.

Instead, the White Sox capped Crochet at four or five innings per start in the second half, which messed with the 25-year-old’s rhythm. As a result, it shouldn’t be a surprise that he pitched to a 5.12 ERA in 38.2 innings in the second half of the season; however, it would be foolish to assume that was Crochet “tiring” and not a result of his team yo-yo-ing him around.

The Red Sox will likely let Crochet go as many innings as he can, which means he should be an elite source of strikeouts and ratios in 2025, and he is now in a situation to easily win double-digit games, which seemed like a pipe dream if he remained in Chicago. Moving from Guaranteed Rate Field to Fenway Park is a downgrade for Crochet, but he had just a 36% fly ball rate in 2024 and misses enough bats that the park factor shouldn’t be a major deterrent in drafting Crochet in fantasy in 2025.

The left-hander is now locked into the top 10 of starting pitcher ranks heading into next season, and gives the Red Sox a vaunted stud to give the ball to every five games.

What do we know about the prospects heading to Chicago?

Well, we know that this is a good haul of prospects on the surface for the White Sox.

Kyle Teel is the top prize for the White Sox. The soon-to-be 23-year-old hit .288/.386/.433 in 112 games across two levels with 13 home runs and 12 steals. Teel is a smaller catcher at 6’0″ and 180 pounds, so he is not going to be a huge power threat, but he can turn on pitches inside. He has a great feel for the strike zone and is a solid contact hitter who should be able to hit .270 or above at the MLB level. As a defensive player, he is a plus athlete with a quick release that helps him make up for an average arm. He has to grow a little bit as a framer/receiver, but he is great at blocking pitches and will be an above-average defensive catcher.

Braden Montgomery is the next-biggest name even though he has not taken a professional at-bat yet. The 21-year-old was the 12th overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft and is widely regarded as a potential impact MLB regular after a tremendous career at Texas A&M.

Chase Meidroth is another contact-first prospect who hit .293/.437/.400 in 122 games at Triple-A with seven home runs and 13 steals. He rarely ever swings and misses and had a higher walk rate than strikeout rate in 2024, which is a great indicator of his plate discipline. He has very little power and is just an average runner, which likely makes him an MLB utility infielder. He figures to profile best as a third baseman because he doesn’t have the range for shortstop, but his arm is just average, so he will need to bounce around to make enough of an impact.

The last player is Wikelman Gonzalez, who is an enticing 22-year-old right-handed pitcher with a mid-90s fastball and a changeup and slider that have both flashed plus before. In 2023, Gonzalez struck out 105 batters in 63 innings at High-A and 63 batters in 48.1 innings at Double-A. However, he was unable to carry that over into 2024, striking out 92 batters in 83.2 innings at Double-A while posting a 4.73 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. There is some concern that Gonzalez has never been able to polish his arsenal and showcase a level of consistency that would enable him to win a spot in an MLB rotation.

Why would the Red Sox make this deal?

Point blank, the Red Sox needed an ace. They also needed at least one left-handed starter. They were apparently close to landing Max Fried, and they never seemed locked into spending what they needed to land Corbin Burnes (which they still might). Apart from those two, Crochet was the only other legitimate ace remaining, so the Red Sox swooped.

After starting out the year hot, the Red Sox starting rotation finished 7th in MLB in ERA but were 14th in the second half of the year. The rotation also finished 15th in strikeout rate and 12th in K-BB% on the entire season, so there was a clear need for an ace with swing-and-miss stuff to lead this rotation. The fact that Crochet is only 25 years old, is under contract for two more years, and is open to signing an extension means the Red Sox could have just landed a cost-controlled ace that they could potentially entice to remain in Boston for the next decade.

While the prospects they gave up were certainly quality players, the benefit of having one of the best and deepest farm systems in baseball is that you can make trades like this. Kyle Teel is the biggest loss since he is MLB-ready, and the Red Sox have very little catching depth in the organization. Montgomery is another solid prospect, but the Red Sox have an embarrassment of riches in the outfield with Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, Miguel Bleis, and Jhostynxon Garcia. That made it possible for them to deal Montgomery away without hurting the long-term future of their MLB roster.

Similarly, the presence of top prospects Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell, Franklin Arias, and Yoeilin Cespedes, along with David Hamilton and Vaughn Grissom meant that Meidroth really had no place in the future of the Red Sox organization.

Why would the White Sox make this deal?

I’m not entirely sure. Crochet is 25 years old and under team control for two more years. I know the White Sox are not contending next year, but there is also an argument that you could have rebuilt the team and rotation around Crochet and top prospects Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith.

However, if the White Sox felt that they weren’t going to be able to sign Crochet to an extension, then the trade makes sense. This is not a team that is contending for a World Series in the next two years and Crochet is their most valuable asset, so they can move him and get a haul of prospects.

Montgomery is the most interesting player added by the White Sox because he could shoot up their prospect rankings by mid-season once we see him in professional games. He still feels about two years away from his MLB debut, but that works for Chicago’s timeline. Meidroth is likely MLB-ready and can hold down the fort at several infield positions before the White Sox add more talent and move him to a utility role, so he makes sense for this roster as well.

The decision to land Kyle Teel is confusing to me though because the White Sox have an elite catching prospect of their own in Edgar Quero, who ranks 59th on MLB’s Top 100 prospects. Quero is a far weaker defender and could potentially move to 1B or DH, but he’s a 20-home run bat and the White Sox have Andrew Vaughn, so I’m struggling to see where all the pieces fit for the White Sox right now.

Final Fantasy takeaways

The only two fantasy-relevant players in this deal for 2025 are Crochet and Teel. As I mentioned above, I’d rank Crochet in the top five overall starting pitchers in redraft leagues and will be drafting him happily. Teel is a little bit fringier for fantasy since he’s a .270-ish hitter with 15 home run power who could steal 10 bases but will hit in a terrible lineup. That strikes me as more of a two-catcher league target.