2023 March Madness predictions: Expert NCAA bracket picks against the spread, odds for First Four games

The wait is over. The 2023 NCAA Tournament is finally here with the Big Dance tipping off Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio, as the first pair of First Four games tips off. The First Four games will serve as tasty appetizers to the main course that starts with the first round on Thursday.

Making things even more interesting is that oddsmakers and experts are split over which teams they expect to advance. All four game spreads are four points or less, which sets the stage for what could be a monumental tournament filled with upsets and surprises over the remaining few weeks.

While surviving and advancing is clearly what matters for most, we care about whether these teams will cover their spreads. Be sure to stick with CBS Sports throughout the rest of the month for NCAA Tournament coverage from the opening tipoff of the First Four through the end of the Final Four. Let’s take a look at our expert picks as the first games get underway across Tuesday and Wednesday.

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook | All times Eastern

Tuesday, 6:40 pm. | truTV, March Madness Live: Texas A&M Corpus-Christi is the better team who had the better season entering this game. It also has a more well-rounded offense and a more complete defense. The metrics back all of this. Second-year coach Steve Lutz, previously a staffer under Matt Painter at Purdue, has the Islanders in great position to win here after getting to the First Four last season and falling just shy of advancing. Pick: Texas A&M-CC -4

Tuesday, 9:10 p.m. | truTV, March Madness Live: This line opened at Pitt +2 and has already moved Pitt’s direction down to 1.5 as tip nears. I’m more than fine just grabbing that point and the hook here given how closely I view this one. Pitt was one victory away from winning the ACC, and it has the offense that — even against a stingy Mississippi State team — could be enough to get the Panthers into Round 1. Pick: Pitt +1.5

Wednesday, 6:40 pm. | truTV, March Madness Live: If the name Texas Southern sounds familiar, it should. The Tigers are making their third consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance under Johnny Jones despite a putrid 14-20 overall record and 7-11 finish in SWAC play. Why? They ran the table in the conference tournament. They’ve gotten hot as leading scorer Davon Barnes and sidekick PJ Henry have found their rhythm, making them my pick here against a Fairleigh Dickinson team that rates as the worst defensive unit in the field (third-worst in all of college hoops this season in efficiency ratings at KenPom). Pick: Texas Southern -2

Wednesday, 9:10 p.m. | truTV, March Madness Live: Arizona State opened as a 2-point favorite, and its margin has ticked down to a single point ahead of Wednesday’s tip, but I’m not ready to buy in to the Wolfpack in this spot. They had a great start to the season but slumped to the finish, culminating with three losses in three borderline must-win games as they flirted with the bubble. ASU is a fiesty bunch under Bobby Hurley, who I’ll give the slight edge to here. Pick: Arizona State -1