2023 NCAA championship game predictions: Expert picks against the spread, UConn vs. San Diego State odds

Weeks of wild 2023 NCAA Tournament action has finally led us to the crowning moment of the season. The 68-team bracket initially introduced on Selection Sunday has nearly played itself all the way out with only two teams still standing entering Monday’s national championship game. It’ll be No. 4 seed UConn and No. 5 seed San Diego State fighting Monday to be the team cutting down the nets from NRG Stadium in Houston as the national champion.

UConn has been on a tear with all five of its NCAA Tournament wins coming by 13 or more points in what has been one of the most dominant postseason runs in recent memory. San Diego State has been a giant slayer all postseason, though, with a win over No. 1 overall seed Alabama among the many feathers in this team’s cap. The Aztecs earned their first title game berth in fitting fashion, too, overcoming a 14-point second-half deficit vs. FAU with the lone buzzer-beater thus far in March Madness.

The Huskies, 4-0 all-time in championship game appearances, are the betting favorite to win the title Monday and keep their unblemished record intact. However, the Aztecs are a team with plenty of mettle that could cover the spread and keep things interesting down the stretch.

Our staff, as we’ve done all NCAA Tournament, has made its picks for the game below both straight up and against the spread. You can see everyone is expecting a UConn win, though SDSU covering the number and keeping this close is a potential outcome some of our staff is expecting that would add some drama to the season finale.

Be sure to stick with CBS Sports throughout the final day of the NCAA Tournament for full March Madness coverage as the Final Four wraps up and we crown a national champion.

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook | All times Eastern

Final Four predictions, picks

(4) UConn vs. (5) San Diego State

Monday, 8:49 p.m. | CBS, March Madness Live

Kyle Boone: No team during this year’s NCAA Tournament has been able to touch UConn, and if I’m throwing down some cheddar on a potential outcome Monday, it’s on betting that trend continues. The Huskies have won each of their five games by 13+ points en route to the title game, putting them in rarefied air as the fifth team to win by at least that large a margin in five wins. SDSU has a viable defense that could give UConn trouble, and its size matches up well with the Huskies’ front line, but the inside-out balance and depth of this Dan Hurley-coached club is drubbing teams — and SDSU may be next. Pick: UConn -7.5

Gary Parrish: UConn has won every game in this NCAA Tournament by at least 13 points, and the prevailing thought seems to be that the Huskies are likely to pull a 2018 Villanova and finish this championship run with six straight double-digit wins. Maybe. But lets not forget that San Diego State has already beaten the No. 1 overall seed (Alabama). Point being: The Aztecs have already won in this tournament as a seven-point underdog. So, is it really crazy to think San Diego State can at least hang around with UConn? I don’t think so. Like most, I do believe the Huskies are about to win their fifth national title under a third different coach, but I’ll take SDSU plus the points and hope for a competitive championship game. Pick: San Diego State +7.5

David Cobb: UConn has mauled everyone standing in its way during the NCAA Tournament, but the Huskies have not faced a defense with this combination of size, experience and physicality. The Aztecs like to play slow and prefer low-scoring games. Unlike most teams UConn has faced in recent weeks, San Diego State also has the ability to match up down low with Adama Sanogo. That should help the Aztecs keep UConn out of rhythm. Ultimately, the Huskies are the right pick to win straight up, but SDSU has the tools to keep it within single digits and cover a three-possession spread. Pick: San Diego State +7.5

Chip Patterson: I think we are about to see UConn match the runs of 2018 Villanova, 2009 North Carolina, 2001 Duke and 2000 Michigan State by winning the national championship with six double-digit tournament wins. The power ratings, the market and the models can’t keep up with how much better the Huskies are playing than their season-long numbers, and even those rank among the best in the country. It’s not UConn beating teams by an average of 22.6 in this tournament; the Huskies have been at least nine points clear of the spread as well in all five wins. San Diego State can hang around for a while, but over the course of 40 minutes I think the Huskies are able to not only keep the Aztecs at bay but pull away for a comfortable win. Watch out for the last few minutes of the first half and first couple of minutes of the second half: This is where UConn has separated itself from the competition in the tournament. If the Huskies win those middle 5-6 minutes of the game, the final result has been decided. Pick — UConn -7.5

Matt Norlander: I think the Aztecs have a good chance at keeping this game competitive for the reasons Parrish stated above. But UConn has been an unsolvable riddle for every nonconference team it’s faced this season. We’ve reached the point where it’s emptying the bench in the closing minutes against teams with future lottery picks (Arkansas), the best offense in the sport (Gonzaga) and shutting down an otherwise really good scoring team (Miami). Somewhere along the way, the Huskies learned how to dominate in a casual fashion, and I expect that to be the case again on Monday night. Jordan Hawkins has the best game of anyone, while Donovan Clingan and Adama Sanogo combine for more than 30 points and 20 rebounds. Pick: UConn -7.5