Baylor vs. Kansas State prediction, odds: 2023 college basketball picks, Feb. 21 best bets by proven model

Projected NCAA Tournament teams face off in Manhattan, Kan., on Tuesday evening. The No. 12 Kansas State Wildcats host the No. 9 Baylor Bears in a Big 12 tilt at Bramlage Coliseum. Kansas State won at Baylor in overtime in January, and the Wildcats are 14-1 at home this season. Baylor, led by national title-winning head coach Scott Drew, is 20-7 overall and 10-2 in the last 12 games.

Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET in Manhattan. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bears as 2-point road favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 146 in the latest Baylor vs. Kansas State odds. Before locking in any Kansas State vs. Baylor picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.  

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters Week 16 of the season 71-42 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Baylor vs. KSU, and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for KSU vs. Baylor:

• Baylor vs. Kansas State spread: Baylor -2
• Baylor vs. Kansas State over/under: 146 points
• Baylor vs. Kansas State money line: Baylor -140, Kansas State +118
• BAY: The Bears are 3-4-1 against the spread in road games
• KSU: The Wildcats are 11-4 against the spread in home games
• Baylor vs. Kansas State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Baylor can cover

Baylor is electric on offense, making the Bears threatening in any environment and against any opponent. Drew’s team is No. 2 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and the Bears lead the Big 12 with 77.4 points per game in Big 12 play. Baylor leads the conference in turnover rate (16.0%) and offensive rebound rate (34.7%), winning on the margins, and the Bears are in the top 15 of the nation in offensive rebound rate over the full season. 

With Baylor also shooting 36.8% from 3-point range against Big 12 teams, the Bears put pressure on opponents from the outside, and Baylor is a top-three team in the Big 12 in free throw creation rate and free throw accuracy (76.8%). In contrast, Kansas State is the worst defensive rebound rate (66.3%) in the Big 12 this season, and the Wildcats rank outside the top 300 of the country in free throw rate allowed.

Why Kansas State can cover

K-State has the edge on the defensive end, and the Wildcats should benefit from a friendly home-court advantage in Manhattan. The Wildcats are in the top 20 of the country in defensive efficiency, and Kansas State leads the Big 12 in opponent shooting, including a 28.1% mark allowed from 3-point range. Kansas State creates a turnover on more than 21% of defensive possessions, including a live-ball turnover on nearly 11% of trips. 

On offense, Kansas State is in the top three of the Big 12 in free throw accuracy (77.8%) and free throw creation rate, and the Wildcats assist on more than 64% of field goals. Baylor is last in the Big 12 in opponent shooting allowed on the defensive end, and the Bears are also last in 2-point defense and block rate. Baylor creates a turnover on only 16.4% of possessions, and the Bears are second-worst in the Big 12 in turnover creation rate and steal rate. 

How to make Kansas State vs. Baylor picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 147 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Baylor vs. Kansas State? And which side hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.