At long last, Arkansas’ nightmare ended on Wednesday night as the Razorbacks squeaked out a 68-65 victory over Georgia. It wasn’t pretty, but it marked the first SEC victory of coach John Calipari’s debut campaign with the program.
It was a badly needed stroke of good fortune for the Razorbacks (12-7, 1-5 SEC) after things went from bad to worse this week with the news that star freshman Boogie Fland will potentially miss the rest of the season due to injury. The 6-foot-2 guard is the Razorbacks’ second-leading scorer, tops the team in assists and is a potential first-round pick in the NBA Draft.
Losing Fland should only make gaining traction in the SEC more challenging for the Razorbacks. Depth is not a strength of the Arkansas roster; Calipari has used just nine players in a legitimate capacity this season. That number was down to just eight against Georgia on Wednesday, but the Razorbacks found a way to win. Can the victory be a turning point?
The Razorbacks’ hopes of reaching the NCAA Tournament are in dire peril, but a challenging SEC schedule offers plenty of chances for marquee victories. Will the Razorbacks capitalize, or will this team finish with the program’s worst SEC record since the 2008-09 Arkansas team that went 2-14 in the league? Our writers are predicting Arkansas’ final SEC record for this week’s Dribble Handoff.
5-13
I’m not ready to insist that John Calipari’s career is out of good years, but it’s obvious Year 1 at Arkansas is going to be a bust that possibly doubles as this season’s biggest disappointment. While Mark Pope (Kentucky), Pat Kelsey (Louisville), Darian DeVries (West Virginia), Dusty May (Michigan), Mark Byington (Vanderbilt), Ben McCollum (Drake) and Jerrod Calhoun (Utah State) are all doing well in their first seasons at new schools, Calipari has struggled. Congrats to the Razorbacks on that Wednesday night victory over Georgia, but the idea of them turning things around while short-handed in the toughest conference in the country (and possibly of all time) isn’t a smart bet to make.
Could next season be better? For Cal’s sake, I hope so.
But the prevailing thought within the coaching industry in January 2025 is that the soon-to-be 66-year-old hasn’t adapted well to the variety of ways the game has changed, both on and off the court. If he doesn’t surround himself with some fresh faces with modern ideas this offseason, many coaches have suggested privately that they believe his days of operating at the tip-top of college basketball might well be over even though he’s making roughly $7 million a year and operating with the kind of big NIL resources necessary to secure talent as well as anybody else in the sport. — Gary Parrish
4-14
I can be quick here. The win Wednesday night at home over Georgia was desperately needed. The players had to get some sort of evidence that they can pull out tough victories in the toughest conference. And Adou Thiero (17 points, 11 rebounds) has been one of the reliable factors in a bumpy, disappointing season. But with Boogie Fland’s wrist surgery potentially sidelining for the rest of the season, it has me thinking Arkansas is set for some doom. How many road games is this team going to win in the SEC? Fland’s been the most valuable player on the roster, and unless Johnell Davis and DJ Wagner can transform into All American-level players out of nowhere, this is going to be a disastrous Year 1 for Calipari. Keep in mind, Arkansas is basically seven deep now. — Matt Norlander
2-14
A lost Year 1 for Calipari could derail quickly. This team was 0-5 in SEC play before the injury, and while those losses came against some of the best in the conference, it’s hard to imagine Fland’s season ending will suddenly spark a run from this Razorbacks team.
They are a below-average 3-point shooting team that lost their best outside shooter, and his absence will doubly affect them given his setup ability, which impacted spacing. He led the team with a 30.3% assist rate and was, rightfully, the player Arkansas relied on most to run its offense.
There’s just not a lot of reason for optimism here. Almost all of the best lineup combinations for Arkansas this season by net rating involve Fland on the floor. The most realistic path forward involve Johnell Davis making a major leap, Adou Thiero leading the way and DJ Wagner finding more ways to make an impact. Even that might not be enough.
There will be plenty of chances for Arkansas to outperform this prediction — and I hope it does — but even redistributing Fland’s production among other talented players likely won’t make up for an outdated play style and significant issues with 3-point shooting and turnovers. If things seem bad now, they could get much, much worse in the coming weeks.– Kyle Boone
4-14
This team is an unsalvageable mess with no offensive chemistry and fluctuating levels of toughness. A decade ago, a talented roster like the one Calipari has assembled could skate by in the SEC at .500. Not anymore. Every team in the league has talent, and the other 15 have better coaching and connectedness than Arkansas. Losing Fland only exacerbates the problems for a team that is light on depth and outside shooting. The Razorbacks now have even more problems in those areas.
While a narrow home win over Georgia should provide a momentary emotional lift, there was little from a 31% shooting performance to suggest that it portends legitimate improvement. Home games against Oklahoma, LSU, Missouri and Texas are winnable. So is a road game against South Carolina. A 4-14 SEC record would leave Arkansas at 15-16 entering the SEC Tournament, meaning the Razorbacks would have work to do in Nashville to avoid finishing with back-to-back losing records for the first time since 2009 and 2010. — David Cobb
5-13
The Razorbacks needed that Georgia win badly to build confidence towards a possible at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. There are some winnable games on the rest of the schedule: per KenPom.com, the Razorbacks are projected to win their next game against Oklahoma, but after that, the stretch gets tricky with games against Kentucky, Texas and Alabama on the slate. Arkansas can get to five SEC wins is by splitting the season series against Texas, beating Oklahoma and LSU at home, and winning on the road at South Carolina (currently winless in the SEC) in March.
Losing Fland is a big deal because he played at an elite level until suffering a hand injury earlier this month. Arkansas’ tournament hopes are on life support, but maybe Wednesday’s win over Georgia can help build something heading into the back half of the SEC schedule. — Cameron Salerno
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